Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, October 23, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 42% (CBS) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today, which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.
ELECTIONS: 2018
Among voters in each state and district
SENATE
INDIANA: Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) over Mike Braun (R): +1 (41-40-L8)
WEST VIRGINIA: Sen. Joe Manchin (D) over Patrick Morrisey (R): +16 (52-36-4)
NORTH DAKOTA: Kevin Cramer (R) over Heidi Heitkamp (D): +16 (56-40)
FLORIDA (Quinnipiac): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) over Rick Scott (R): +6 (52-46)
FLORIDA (SurveyUSA): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) over Rick Scott (R): +8 (49-41)
MISSISSIPPI: Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) over Mike Espy (D): +9 (38-29-McDaniel 15)
MISSISSIPPI: Roger Wicker (R) over David Baria (D): +28 (60-32)
RON’S COMMENT:
INDIANA––This poll from Survey USA, showing Democrat Donnelly ahead by 1 point, was taken at the same time that a Gravis poll had Donnelly up by 4 points and about the same time that a Vox Populi poll had Donnelly up by 8 points. What to believe? According to Survey USA, Donnelly wins voters below 50, women and those who are college-educated. Braun wins whites and voters who have a high school education. Donnelly and Braun are tied among voters older than 50. Braun is winning Indiana’s crucial suburbs by 1 point.
WEST VIRGINIA––This poll shows Democrat Manchin with a substantial 16-point lead. The poll we reported last week pegged Manchin’s lead at a much narrower 5 points. This new poll finds that Manchin’s strength remains personal: His rating is 49% favorable/15% neutral/30% unfavorable, compared to Republican Morrisey who rates an upside down 33% favorable/11% neutral/45% unfavorable. West Virginia is a bastion of Trump support, which has haunted Manchin’s re-election campaign from the start. Trump’s rating is 58% approve/40% disapprove in the state. Despite Manchin’s lead, voters in the state pick Republicans over Democrats 44-36 in a generic ballot test for Congress.
NORTH DAKOTA––This race is looking increasingly bad for Democrats. Republican challenger Cramer’s strength among fellow Republicans has pushed him into the mid-50s overall, even though Heitkamp is winning Democrats 93-3 and independents 55-32. Cramer is crushing Heitkamp among men 62-33 and he even wins women 51-46. Notice that Democratic Sen. Manchin is winning in pro-Trump West Virginia by 16 points, while Democratic Sen. Heitkamp is losing in pro-Trump North Dakota by 16 points. But unlike Manchin, who maintains a decent level of personal popularity, Heitkamp rates poorly: 37% favorable/7% neutral/52% negative.
FLORIDA––Polls are bouncing around here, although three of the last four show Nelson with leads averaging 6.3 points. However, the one poll that puts Scott ahead, conducted by St. Pete Polls, was the most recent one by a couple of days. The Survey USA poll, which gives Nelson an 8-point margin, finds that Nelson is leading women by 12 and men by 3. It also shows him winning blacks 88-0 (yes, zero). Scott is leading whites 48-43…. Trump’s job rating in Florida is 44% approve/49% disapprove. Gov. Scott’s job rating is 45% approve/43% disapprove and Sen. Nelson is 40% approve/37% disapprove. Sidebar: Sen. Marco Rubio (R)’s job rating is 39% approve/41% disapprove. Among Republicans, Rubio is 65% approve/17% disapprove, among Democrats 19% approve/66% disapprove and among independents 30% approve/44% disapprove.
MISSISSIPPI––Both Senate seats are up. In the regular election, GOP incumbent Wicker easily outdistances his Democratic opponent…. In the special election to fill Republican Thad Cochran’s unexpired term, appointed incumbent Hyde-Smith (R) is running first in the nonpartisan open primary. Democrat Espy, a former U.S. House member and Secretary of Agriculture, is second. State Sen. Chris McDaniel, a Tea Party Republican, is third. McDaniel lost a close race to Cochran in the 2014 GOP primary. A runoff trial heat shows Hyde-Smith defeating Espy 50-36.
GOVERNOR
FLORIDA: Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +7 (49-42)
RON’S COMMENT: Democrat Gillum holds the lead. Based on this poll, he’s winning women by 17 points and blacks 88-2. Republican DeSantis leads men by 2 points and whites 48-43…. Attorney General: This poll finds Democrat Sean Shaw edging Republican Ashley Moody in the Florida AG’s race, 44-43.
HOUSE
CALIFORNIA 48: Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) and Harley Rouda (D): +2 (50-48)
VIRGINIA 2: Rep. Scott Taylor (R) over Elaine Luria (D): +3 (45-42)
VIRGINIA 5: Leslie Cockburn (D)over Denver Riggleman (R) +1 (46-45)
ILLINOIS 12: Rep. Mike Bost (R) over Brendan Kelly (D): +9 (48-39)
RON’S COMMENT: Today, we report on four GOP-held seats across the nation. All three incumbents are leading, although two have close races. The one open seat is nearly tied, with the Democrat slightly ahead.
CALIFORNIA 48–– In this close race, even a 2-point lead seems like a big deal. The last two polls had the race tied.
VIRGINIA 2––Another poll two weeks ago had Republican incumbent Taylor ahead by 7 points. Now, his lead in this poll is down to 3 points. Trump carried the district by 3 points.
VIRGINIA 5––Democrat Cockburn is an award-winning journalist, author and former 60 Minutes producer. Republican Riggleman is a businessman, Air Force veteran and co-author of a book on Big Foot. Cockburn has outraised Riggleman $2.4 million to $910,000. The district includes Charlottesville and is largely rural. Trump carried it by 11 points. Incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Garrett is not seeking a second term. Handicappers rate the race lean or likely Republican.
ILLINOIS 12––Republican incumbent Bost has expanded his lead over the past six weeks from 1 to 9 points.
POLITICAL DIVISIONS
Among voters nationwide
There are many ways that Americans are divided, but thinking just about political divisions between Democrats and Republicans, how serious of a problem do you feel these divisions are? Is it a very serious problem, a serious problem, not that serious of a problem, or not a serious problem at all?
Very serious problem: 61%
A serious problem: 29%
Not that serious of a problem: 9%
Not a serious problem: 1%
RON’S COMMENT: 90% of voters nationwide think current political divisions in the country are a “serious” or “very serious” problem.
TV ADS
2018 campaigns
Florida Senate
Pro-Nelson Ad:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TFz7WQJdhM
Anti-Scott Ads:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjCCE0mCUdA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zci8MG6frjY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jo9Mbxj7iWc
Anti-Nelson Ads
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdZi69gfkfk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dA2BhpkxTy0
Pro-Scott Ad
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mOldQmifBoc
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Which former Democratic governor had the distinction of defeating one future Republican president and losing to a second future Republican president in two gubernatorial elections four years apart?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
WEST VIRGINIA: WSAZ TV/Strategic Research, Oct.12-19
FLORIDA: SurveyUSA, Oct. 18-21; Quinnipiac, Oct. 17-21
NORTH DAKOTA: NBC Valley News, Oct. 12-19
INDIANA: SurveyUSA, Oct. 10-12
MISSISSIPPI: NBC/Marist, OCT. 13-18
CALIFORNIA 48: Monmouth, Oct. 17-21
VIRGINIA 2, VIRGINIA 5, ILLINOIS 12: NYT/Siena, Oct. 18-22
POLITICAL DIVISIONS: WSJ/NBC, Oct. 14-17
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
TRIVIA ANSWER
Edmund G. “Pat” Brown. Democrat Brown was first elected governor of California in 1958. In his re-election bid for a second term, he defeated Richard Nixon in 1962. In his race for a third term, Brown lost the governorship to Ronald Reagan in 1966. Of course, Nixon went on to win the presidency in 1968 and Reagan in 1980. Brown was the father of current California Gov. Edmund G. “Jerry” Brown (D).
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