Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, October 17, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 43% (ABC/Wash Post) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 45%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today, which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.
ELECTIONS: 2018
Among voters in each state and district
SENATE
TEXAS: Sen. Ted Cruz (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +7 (52-45)
CALIFORNIA: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) over Kevin de Leon (D): +14 (40-26)
WASHINGTON: Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) over Susan Hutchison (R): +14 (53-39)
RON’S COMMENT:
TEXAS––This race has stabilized, with an average Cruz lead of 8 points, based on the three most recent polls. Cruz wins men by 16 points and O’Rourke wins women by 2 points. Cruz also wins independents by 13 points in this CNN poll. Unlike other polls that have been showing O’Rourke with net negative personal ratings, this one shows him 45% favorable/39% unfavorable. They’re still not as good as Cruz’s ratings, however, which are: 52% favorable/42% unfavorable…. In O’Rourke’s favor––and it’s a slight advantage––is that only 7% of his voters say they might change their minds, while 12% of Cruz’s voters say they might change theirs…. On the issues, Texans rank immigration, the economy and healthcare as their top three…. To have a chance at winning, Democrats must do three things with all the money they’re raising: Jack up Cruz’s negative from 42% to over 50%, increase O’Rourke’s positive from 45% to over 50%, and turn out minority voters on Election Day in record numbers. Doing all three, to the extent necessary, will be very difficult for Democrats in a state that has been so reliably red.
CALIFORNIA––Democratic incumbent Feinstein holds a clear lead over her challenger (who is also a Democrat). Feinstein, who had a major role in the recent Kavanaugh confirmation hearings, wins Democrats 61-24. But, Democrat de Leon wins independents 34-33 and Republicans 25-10. Most Republicans, understandably, are undecided. Feinstein wins women 44-23 and men by a closer 34-29 margin. Her job rating is 47% approve/37% disapprove. Also: 38% of voters in the state say Feinstein earned a grade of A or B in her handling of Kavanaugh’s confirmation, while 34% graded her D or F.
WASHINGTON––Democratic incumbent Cantwell posts a solid lead in her re-election bid. She’s heavily favored to win.
Initiative 1639––This Washington State ballot measure requires enhanced background checks, firearm training and waiting periods before semiautomatic assault rifles are purchased. It would prohibit firearm purchases by persons under age 21. It would also require firearm storage or trigger-locks. The latest poll shows the initiative winning 59% for, 34% against.
GOVERNOR
CALIFORNIA: Gavin Newsom (D) over John Cox (R): +17 (52-35)
OREGON: Gov. Kate Brown (D) over Knute Buehler (R): +5 (40-35-7)
COLORADO: Jared Polis (D) over Walker Stapleton (R): +7 (47-40)
ALASKA: Mike Dunleavy (R) over Gov. Bill Walker (I): +16 (43-27-D26)
SOUTH CAROLINA: Gov. Henry McMaster (R) over James Smith (D): +24 (56-32)
RON’S COMMENT:
CALIFORNIA––Though some polls have been showing a narrowing gap, this one has Democrat Newsom with a solid 17-point lead heading into the home stretch. He’s beating Republican Cox by a gigantic 31 points among women. Men, however, are evenly split, 45-45. Newsom wins Democrats 85-7, independents 44-32, whites 49-38, Hispanics 54-29 and Asians 50-34. Cox wins Republicans 86-4. Cox’s voters are more committed––65% say they’re voting for him enthusiastically, while only 57% of Newsom’s voters say the same about their candidate. Newsom’s personal rating is 40% favorable/24% neutral/28% unfavorable. Cox is 34% favorable/22% neutral/26% unfavorable.
Job Ratings––President Trump’s rating in California is 34% approve/57% disapprove. Gov. Jerry Brown (D) is 46% approve/39% disapprove. Sen. Kamala Harris is 46% approve/28% disapprove.
Proposition 6––This California ballot measure would repeal state gasoline and diesel taxes and vehicle fees that were passed last year, and would require a vote of the people to raise such taxes in the future. Based on this poll, 58% of voters favor Prop 6 and 29% oppose it.
OREGON––Democratic incumbent Brown has a modest lead, but her personal rating is even: 45% positive/45% negative. Buehler rates 36% positive/29% negative. Notice that other candidates are drawing 7%. The average of recent polling gives Brown an average lead of 4.5 points.
COLORADO––Polis holds a 7-point margin in this poll conducted by a Republican-affiliated outfit.
ALASKA––Republican Dunleavy maintains a solid lead over independent incumbent Walker. Democrat Mark Begich is third, just a point behind Walker.
SOUTH CAROLINA––GOP incumbent McMaster appears to be cruising.
HOUSE
VIRGINIA 10: Jennifer Wexton (D) over U.S. Rep. Barbara Comstock (R): +7 (48-41)
RON’S COMMENT: GOP incumbent Comstock is struggling to close the gap in this suburban DC district. If Democrats are going to win House control, they need to win this race. Handicappers rate it lean or tilt Democratic.
WORLD SERIES
Among adults nationwide who say they’re interested in the World Series
Which team do you want to see win the World Series?
Milwaukee Brewers: 27%
Boston Red Sox: 25%
Houston Astros: 25%
Los Angeles Dodgers: 22%
RON’S COMMENT: Democrats favor the Dodgers (31%), Republicans favor the Brewers (30%) and independents are split between the Red Sox and Brewers (28% each).
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
WASHINGTON: Elway, Oct. 4-9
TEXAS: CNN, Oct. 9-13
CALIFORNIA: SurveyUSA, Oct. 12-14
OREGON: Oregon Public Broadcasting, Oct. 4–11
ALASKA: Alaska Survey Research, Oct. 12-14
COLORADO: Magellan (R), Oct. 8-10
SOUTH CAROLINA: Trafalgar (R), Oct. 12-14
VIRGINIA 10: NYT/Siena, Oct. 11-15
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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