Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, October 16, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters/Ipsos) to 51% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.
ELECTIONS: 2018
Among voters in each state and district
SENATE
MARYLAND: Sen. Ben Cardin (D) over Tony Campbell (R): +27 (49-22-Ind 18)
UTAH: Mitt Romney (R) over Jenny Wilson (D): +36 (59-23)
RON’S COMMENT:
MARYLAND––Democratic incumbent Cardin is far ahead of Republican Campbell, as expected. But, when you add together the votes of the Republican, Tony Campbell, and the independent, Neal Simon, Cardin’s lead over the field is a less impressive 49-40. Perhaps the GOP should not have fielded a candidate in this race and supported the independent?
UTAH: Romney looks like an easy winner in Utah. The former GOP presidential nominee is winning Republicans 85-3 and independents 48-24. Democrat Wilson is winning Democrats 77-11.
HOUSE
MINNESOTA 8: Pete Stauber (R) over Joe Radinovich (D): +15 (49-34)
UTAH 4: Rep. Mia Love (R) and Ben McAdams (D): even (46-46)
WEST VIRGINIA 3: Carol Miller (R) over Richard Ojeda (D): +3 (48-45)
NEW YORK 27: Rep. Chris Collins (R) over Nate McMurray (D): +3 (46-43)
NEW JERSEY 3: Rep. Tom MacArthur (R) over Andrew Kim (D): +2 (47-45)
RON’S COMMENT:
MINNESOTA 8––This poll is good news for the GOP. This is a white working-class district with heavy union membership. Though Obama carried the district in 2012 by 6 points, Trump won it in 2016 by 16 points. A poll taken five weeks ago had Democrat Radinovich ahead by 1 point, now Republican Stauber dominates the race. Could this shift have resulted, at least partly, from the Kavanaugh fight? Or, is there sample error in the polls because of the state’s unusual Election Day voter registration system (making it harder to get accurate voter lists)? Despite Stauber’s wide lead in this new poll, handicappers rate the race a toss-up. Radinovich has raised $1.5 million and Stauber $1.4 million.
UTAH 4––This poll is good news for Democrats. It shows GOP incumbent Love now in a tied race against her Democratic challenger. Earlier polls consistently showed Love ahead. Love has raised $4.5 million and Democrat McAdams $2.5 million. The average of the two previous polls had Love up by 4.5 points.
WEST VIRGINIA 3––This same poll had Democrat Ojeda ahead by 6 points in June. Republican Miller now leads by 3 points. Trump is very popular in the district (63% approval rating) and he’s campaigned for Miller. He even called Ojeda a “wacko.” Miller is 37% favorable/31% unfavorable. Ojeda is 39% favorable/32% unfavorable. Ojeda has raised $1.9 million and Miller $1.2 million. The average of recent polling has Miller up by 2 points.
NEW YORK 27––GOP incumbent Collins is 37% favorable/49% unfavorable. Democrat McMurray is 32% favorable 21% unfavorable. In August, Collins was arrested by the FBI on a charge of insider trading, which he denied. He then announced he would not seek re-election. But, in mid-September, Collins resumed his campaign for re-election. This is a GOP-leaning district in the western part of the state that Trump won by nearly 25 points. Collins has raised $1.3 million and McMurray $654,000.
NEW JERSEY 3: The two previous polls had Democrat Kim ahead. Now, in this new survey, GOP incumbent MacArthur leads. The district voted for Obama twice and then switched to Trump by 5 points. Kim has raised $4.4 million and MacArthur $3.7 million.
ME TOO MOVEMENT
Among voters nationwide
Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable view of the #metoo movement against sexual harassment?
Favorable: 50%
Unfavorable: 37%
Not sure: 13%
RON’S COMMENT:
There is a gigantic 54-point partisan gap on this question: 75% of Democrats are favorable toward the Me Too movement compared to only 21% of Republicans. But, the gender gap is much smaller, with women six points more favorable toward Me Too than men.
Do you think the #metoo movement against sexual harassment…
Has gone too far: 39%
Has been about right: 27%
Has not gone far enough: 20%
RON’S COMMENT: By nearly a 2 to 1 margin, voters are more likely to say the Me Too movement has “gone too far” than those who say it’s “not gone far enough.” Another way to look at it: 47% of voters say the movement has “not gone far enough” or is “about right.”
TUESDAY TRIVIA
If former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is elected to the U.S. Senate from Utah this November, he will become the second senator in history to serve as a statehood governor in one state and as a U.S. senator from another state. Who was the first?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
UTAH, UTAH 4: Hinckley Institute of Politics, Oct. 3-9
MARYLAND: Gonzales, Oct. 1-6
WEST VIRGINIA 3: Monmouth, Oct. 1-014
NEW YORK 27: Oct. 6-11
MINNESOTA 8: NYT/Siena, Oct. 11-14
NEW JERSEY 3: Stockton, Oct. 3-11
ME TOO MOVEMENT: The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 7-9
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
TRIVIA ANSWER
Sam Houston. He was elected governor of Tennessee in 1827, resigned in 1829 and moved to Texas. He was then elected president of the Republic of Texas (1836-1838 and 1841-1844). After Texas became a state, Houston was elected one of its first U.S. Senators, serving from 1846 to 1859.
It should be noted that William Bibb was also governor and senator from different states, but he did it in reverse order. Bibb was elected to the U.S. Senate first (from Georgia in 1813). He then moved to Alabama and was elected its first statehood governor.
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