Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, October 15, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters/Ipsos) to 51% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: 2020
Among Democrats nationwide
Democratic presidential nomination:
Joe Biden: 33%
Bernie Sanders: 13%
Kamala Harris: 9%
Elizabeth Warren: 8%
John Kerry: 5%
Cory Booker: 5%
Mike Bloomberg: 4%
Beto O’Rourke: 4%
Eric Holder: 3%
Eric Garcetti: 2%
Others (1% or less): 6%
RON’S COMMENT: It may seem a little early to start thinking about the next presidential election, especially because the last one is still constantly being replayed. But in 22 days, when the 2018 midterms are over, the 2020 race will officially begin. This poll shows Biden has widened his polling lead over the Democratic field. It also shows that Harris has improved her standing, now running third, slightly ahead of Warren.
ELECTIONS: 2018
Among voters in each state and district
SENATE
NEVADA: Sen. Dean Heller (R) over Jacky Rosen (D): +7 (48-41)
RON’S COMMENT: This 7-point advantage is incumbent Heller’s high-water mark against Democrat Rosen. Heller’s personal rating is 42% favorable/46% unfavorable and Rosen is 44% favorable/45% unfavorable. The average of recent polls has Heller ahead by 3.7 points
GOVERNOR
NEVADA: Adam Laxalt (R) over Steve Sisolak (D): +5 (46-41)
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Chris Sununu (R) over Molly Kelly (D): +16 (51-35)
RON’S COMMENT:
NEVADA––A 5-point lead is about the best Republican Laxalt has done against Democrat Sisolak. The average of recent polls has Laxalt ahead by a thin 0.7 points.
NEW HAMPSHIRE––The average of recent polls has GOP incumbent Sununu ahead by a solid 16 points.
HOUSE
VIRGINIA 2: Rep. Scott Taylor (R) over Elaine Luria (D): +7 (50-43)
PENNSYLVANIA 1: Scott Wallace (D) over Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R): +7 (50-43)
RON’S COMMENT:
VIRGINIA 2––First-term Republican incumbent Taylor leads Democrat Luria by 7 points among likely voters and by 6 points among the most committed voters. There is a 10-point Democratic advantage in voter enthusiasm (72% vs. 62%), which could help Luria with voter turnout. Also: 72% of voters are aware of the investigation into campaign workers for Taylor who may have improperly collected petitions to help get an independent candidate on the ballot, but for most voters it doesn’t matter. Even 68% of independents say the issue won’t matter to their vote.
PENNSYLVANIA 1––Democrat Wallace leads GOP incumbent Fitzpatrick by 7 points in a classic swing district that Hillary Clinton carried by 2 points. Fitzpatrick is a first-termer and his personal rating is 43% favorable/37% unfavorable. He’s one of very few Republicans who has the support of the AFL-CIO as well as gun control advocate Gabriel Giffords. Fitzpatrick voted against the GOP bill to repeal and replace Obamacare. Handicappers rate the race a toss-up.
VOTING IN THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS
Among voters nationwide
I’d like to ask you to rate the chances that you will vote in the Congressional election in November…
% = Saying they’re certain to vote
Democrats: 81%
Republicans: 79%
Independents: 71%
Whites: 79%
Non-whites: 71%
Democratic women: 80%
Democratic men: 82%
Republican women: 81%
Republican men: 77%
Compared with past midterm elections, is voting this year much more important to you, more important, the same, less important or much less important?
% = Saying this election is more important
Democrats: 77%
Republicans: 63%
Independents: 61%
Whites: 64%
Non-whites: 73%
Democratic women: 76%
Democratic men: 77%
Republican women: 65%
Republican men: 60%
RON’S COMMENT: When voters were asked if they’re “certain to vote” in this election, there is only a 2-point difference between Republicans and Democrats (81-79). But, when voters are asked the second question, whether this election is “much more important” to them than other midterm elections have been, many more Democrats than Republicans say it is (77% vs. 63%). Perhaps this shows the difference between the perception of civic duty (certainty of voting in an election) as opposed to the perception of political efficacy (relative importance of an election).
Is supporting a candidate who shares your opinion on Donald Trump important to you in the congressional election, or not important?
% = Trump is extremely or very important to their vote
Democrats: 67%
Republicans: 64%
Independents: 48%
Whites: 60%
Non-whites: 56%
Democratic women: 67%
Democratic men: 66%
Republican women: 63%
Republican men: 65%
RON’S COMMENT: Wondering if Trump is an important factor in how people vote in this election? This poll answers the question: Yes, he is. Two-thirds of Democrats and almost two-thirds of Republicans say he is, and nearly half of independents join them.
Which political party, the Democrats or the Republicans, do you trust to do a better job handling…
The economy
Democrats do better: 40%
Republicans do better: 47%
Equal treatment of men and women in society
Democrats do better: 54%
Republicans do better: 32%
Taxes
Democrats do better: 44%
Republicans do better: 44%
Immigration
Democrats do better: 50%
Republicans do better: 39%
Appointment of judges to the Supreme Court
Democrats do better: 48%
Republicans do better: 41%
Healthcare
Democrats do better: 52%
Republicans do better: 36%
Changing the way things are working in Washington
Democrats do better: 43%
Republicans do better: 38%
RON’S COMMENT: The best issue for Republicans is the economy, they lead Democrats on it by 7 points. The best issue for Democrats is equal treatment of men and women, they lead Republicans on it by 22 points. Second best issue for Democrats is healthcare, where they lead Republicans by 16 points…. In the same poll, when voters were asked which factor would be most important to their vote, party affiliation ranked first with 21%, the economy/your family’s economic situation ranked second with 17%, healthcare ranked third with 13% and Social Security ranked fourth with 10%.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: CNN, Oct. 4-7
NEVADA, NEW HAMPSHIRE: Emerson College, Oct. 10-12
VIRGINIA 2: CNU, Oct. 3-12
PENNSYLVANIA 1: NYT/Siena, Oct. 11-14
VOTING IN THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS: Washington Post/ABC, Oct. 8-11
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