LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Sexual Harassment – Friday’s Generic Ballot Update – Maryland, Michigan, Delaware, Pennsylvania

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, September 28, 2018

Down 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 40% (Pew, Gallup) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these three extremes, it would be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 10 points higher than his approval rating.


Among voters nationwide 

The Economist: Democrats +8
NPR/PBS/Marist: Democrats +7
Reuters/Ipsos: Democrats +7
Pew: Democrats +10
Gallup: Democrats +9
Current average: Democrats: +8.2
Last week: Democrats: +7.0

RON’S COMMENT: The average Democratic advantage in the nationwide generic ballot has perked up from 7 points last week to 8.2 points now.

Among voters in each state and district

MICHIGAN: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) over John James (R): +23 (56-33)
DELAWARE: Sen. Tom Carper (D) over Rob Arlett (R): +37 (61-24)
PENNSYLVANIA: Sen. Bob Casey (D) over Lou Barletta (R): +17 (50-33)

RON’S COMMENT: Democratic incumbents in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Delaware are in good shape.

MARYLAND: Gov. Larry Hogan (R) over Ben Jealous (D): +15 (52-37-Other 2)
MICHIGAN: Gretchen Whitmer (D)over Bill Schuette (R: +8 (45-37-L2)
PENNSYLVANIA: Gov. Tom Wolf (D) over Scott Wagner (R): +22 (52-30)

RON’S COMMENT: Republican Hogan maintains a wide lead in deep blue Maryland. Democrats lead gubernatorial elections in two big states––Michigan and Pennsylvania––that handed Donald Trump the presidency in 2016.
MARYLAND––GOP incumbent Hogan leads men +26 and women +6––and he’s also getting nearly a third of Democrats. Hogan’s job rating is a phenomenal 68% approve/23% disapprove. Democrat Jealous leads in three major population centers: Baltimore City (62-26), Prince George’s County (56-23) and Montgomery County (49-41). Hogan carries the rest with big majorities. The average of recent polls has Hogan ahead by 17.7 points.
MICHIGAN––This poll shows a somewhat closer race than other recent surveys (previous polls showed Democrat Whitmer ahead by an average of 11 points). Is this recent movement just polling sampling error? Or, is the race actual tightening a bit? We’ll see. Democrats are also leading the AG’s race by 6 points and the Secretary of State’s race by 9 points.
PENNSYLVANIA––The average of recent polls has Democratic incumbent Wolf ahead by 16.3 points.

NEW JERSEY 3: Andrew Kim (D)over Rep. Tom MacArthur (R): +10 (49-39)
NEBRASKA 2: Rep. Don Bacon (R) over Kara Eastman (D): +9 (51-42)
WASHINGTON 8: Kim Schrier (D)over Dino Rossi (R): 1 (46-45)
CALIFORNIA 50: Duncan Hunter (R)over Ammar Campa-Najjar (D): +15 (53-38)

RON’S COMMENT: NEW JERSEY 3––This poll has Democrat Kim defeating GOP incumbent MacArthur by a healthy margin. The last poll we reported, taken about six weeks ago, had Kim ahead by a much thinner margin. Kim is a former official in the Obama White House. MacArthur, who is mostly self-funding, was first elected in 2014. His rating is a weak 28% favorable/41% unfavorable. The district voted for Obama twice, but switched to Trump in 2016. Handicappers rate the race toss-up.
NEBRASKA 2––GOP incumbent Bacon represents the most liberal district in Nebraska, although it’s still slightly Republican-leaning. Romney won it by 7 and Trump by 2. Eastman ran to the left in the Democratic primary. Handicappers rate the race lean Republican.
WASHINGTON 8––Democrat Schrier, a pediatrician, is slightly edging Republican Rossi in a very close race. Seventh-term GOP incumbent Dave Reichert isn’t seeking re-election. Rossi, a former state senator, ran two strong but losing races for governor and one for U.S. senator. Rossi’s 2004 gubernatorial race, in fact, was the closest election for a governorship in U.S. history (he lost by 133 votes out of 2.8 million). Obama carried the district by 2 points and Hillary Clinton carried it by 3 points.
CALIFORNIA 50––Based on the last two polls, GOP incumbent Hunter is widening his lead. He was an early supporter of Donald Trump and is currently under indictment on campaign spending charges. The poll finds that 21% of Hunter’s supporters believe he’s probably guilty. Importantly: 70% of Hunter’s supporters have a lot of interest in the election, while 69% of Democrat Campa-Najjar’s supporters do.

Among voters nationwide

How serious of a problem do you think workplace sexual harassment is in the United States? 

Very/somewhat serious: 70%
Not very/not at all serious: 24%

RON’S COMMENT: 85% of Democrats and 54% of Republicans say workplace sexual harassment is a “very” or “somewhat” serious problem.

Prepared by Ian Gray and Laura Reul of the MSL Group

The Supreme Court nomination hearings gathered intense attention yesterday when Dr. Christine Blasey Ford publicly raised her accusation of sexual assault against Judge Brett Kavanaugh. The nation watched as both Ford and Kavanaugh faced the Senate Judiciary Committee. Here is how the coverage has developed so far:

  • Total number of news media stories: 2,379 articles in US news publications
  • Total number of social engagements on news media stories (comments, likes, and shares of news articles on public facing social media): 4,096,178 (note: this includes only public facing media, not private postings)
  • Total number of social media posts (on public facing social media): 13,248,580
  • By a large margin, Washington Post garnered the most social engagement for their news coverage (852,051) and was the most significant news publication driving social media engagement.
  • The top three hashtags used in the conversation were“#believesurvivors”, “#stopkavanaugh”, and “#confirmkavanaughnow”.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
MARYLAND: Mason-Dixon, Sept. 24-26
NEW JERSEY 3: NYT/Siena, Sept. 22-26
NEBRASKA 2: NYT/Siena, Sept. 22-26
WASHINGTON 8: NYT/Siena, Sept. 24-26
CALIFORNIA 50: Monmouth, Sept. 22-26
PENNSYLVANIA: Franklin & Marshall, Sept. 17-23
SEXUAL HARASSMENT: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 23-25

L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

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