LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Kavanaugh Confirmation – Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Minnesota, California

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, September 27, 2018

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Gallup) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters in each state and district

FLORIDA: Rick Scott (R) and Sen. Bill Nelson (D): even (48-48)
CALIFORNIA: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) over Kevin de Leon (D): +11 (40-29)
PENNSYLVANIA: Sen. Bob Casey (D) over Lou Barletta (R): +17 (55-38)
OHIO: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) over Jim Renacci (R): +11 (52-11)
WISCONSIN: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) over Leah Vukmir (R): +11 (53-42)
MICHIGAN: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) over John James (R): +20 (57-37)

RON’S COMMENT: The Florida race remains a see-saw, this poll has it a tie. Feinstein still holds a clear lead, but it has diminished. Democratic incumbents Casey, Brown, Baldwin and Stabenow all post double-digit leads.

FLORIDA (Quinnipiac): Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +9 (54-45)
FLORIDA (Reuters Ipsos): Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +6 (51-45)
OHIO: Mike DeWine (R) and Richard Cordray (D): even (46-46)
WISCONSIN: Tony Evers (D) over Gov. Scott Walker (R): +7 (52-45)
CALIFORNIA: Gavin Newsom (D) over John Cox (R): +12 (51-39)
PENNSYLVANIA: Gov. Tom Wolf (D) over Scott Wagner (R): +18 (57-39)
MICHIGAN: Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Bill Schuette (R): +13 (53-40)

RON’S COMMENT: Florida continues to be good news for Democrats, with Gillum holding a lead. Ohio has evened out, making it one of the nation’s closest gubernatorial races for an open seat. Walker continues to struggle to find an advantage in Wisconsin. California is tighter than earlier polls showed, which gives Cox a boost in what remains a GOP longshot.
FLORIDA––Democrat Gillum has led the last 10 polls, and today’s Quinnipiac poll has him with his biggest lead yet. The main reason appears to be personal popularity: Gillum rates 55% favorable/31% unfavorable and Republican DeSantis rates 42% favorable/47% unfavorable. Gillum, who is African American, is winning blacks 98-2 and Hispanics 59-41. DeSantis, who is white, is winning whites 53-45. The average of recent polls has Gillum ahead by 6 points.

MINNESOTA 2: Angie Craig (DFL) over Rep. Jason Lewis (R): +3 (48-45)
CALIFORNIA 21: Rep. David Valadao (R) over TJ Cox (D): +11 (50-39)

RON’S COMMENT: MINNESOTA 2––Here’s another GOP incumbent struggling for re-election. Democrat Craig is winning women by 12, while Republican incumbent Lewis is winning men by 6. Trump’s rating in the district is 41% approve/54% disapprove.
CALIFORNIA 21––Republican incumbent Valadao has a clear lead in this poll. Valadao draws his strength from whites (he wins them by 32 points) and seniors (he leads them by 20 points). He also wins independents. Valadao led Cox 63-37 in the primary. Clinton won the district in 2016. Handicappers rate the race likely Republican.

Among voters nationwide 

Do you think the U.S. Senate should or should not confirm Brett Kavanaugh as a Supreme Court Justice? 

Should confirm: 39%
Should not confirm: 43%
Not sure: 18%

RON’S COMMENT: A plurality of voters oppose Kavanaugh’s confirmation. 10% of Democrats, 29% of independents and 74% of Republicans favor his confirmation. Of course, these numbers could change after today’s hearings.

Do you think it is appropriate or inappropriate for a woman to come forward with an allegation of sexual assault after 36 years? 

Appropriate: 45%
Inappropriate: 41%
Not sure: 14%

Do you believe the woman who has accused Brett Kavanaugh of sexual assault, or not?

Believe the woman: 40%
Do not believe the woman: 34%
Not sure: 26%

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
FLORIDA: Quinnipiac, Sept. 20-24
MINNESOTA 2: KSTP/SurveyUSA, Sept. 17-23
CALIFORNIA 21: ABC30/SurveyUSA, Sept. 20-24
KAVANAUGH: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 23-25

L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

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