LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Media Analysis of Trump’s UN Speech – Florida, Ohio, Massachusetts, Oregon

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Down 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (Gallup) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today, which is 8 points higher than his approval rating.

Among voters in each state and district

FLORIDA (Marist/NBC): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) over Rick Scott (R): +3 (48-45)
FLORIDA (Quinnipiac): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) over Rick Scott (R): +7 (53-46)
OHIO: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) over Jim Renacci (R): +13 (52-39-L4)
MASSACHUSETTS: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) over Geoff Diehl (R): +26 (56-30-Other 5)

RON’S COMMENT: FLORIDA––Two new polls in Florida both show Democratic incumbent Nelson ahead. The Quinnipiac survey, which often shows Democrats doing better than other polls, has Nelson’s lead at 7 points, which is the widest margin he’s had in any poll during the last year. Looking at the internals, Quinnipiac’s poll shows Nelson doing better across the board: In the Quinnipiac poll, Nelson wins blacks 90-10, Latinos 61-39, women 58-41 and independents 56-40. Scott wins whites 53-45 and men 51-47. In the Marist/NBC poll, Nelson wins blacks 78-15, Latinos 57-37, women 53-40 and independents 53-37. Scott wins whites 52-40 and men 50-42. It should also be mentioned that the Quinnipiac poll was conducted four days after NBC/Marist poll. The average of recent polls, including both of the ones we’re reporting today, has Nelson ahead by 2.3 points.
OHIO––The average of recent polls has Democratic incumbent Brown ahead by 15.3 points.

FLORIDA: Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +5 (48-43)
OREGON: Gov. Kate Brown (D) over Knute Buehler (R): +1 (42-41)
OHIO: Mike DeWine (R) and Richard Cordray (D): even (44-44-L3-G3)

RON’S COMMENT: FLORIDA––Democrat Gillum maintains his lead. The average of recent polls has him ahead by 4.3 points.
OREGON––This poll, taken by a GOP-affiliated firm, shows this to be a 1-point race. Another recent poll, also taken by a Republican-affiliated firm, had Democratic incumbent Brown up by 10. We’ll have to wait to see where this is going.
OHIO––This race is now a tie, according to this poll. Without the third-party candidates, it’s still a tie (47-47). Republican DeWine’s rating is 47% favorable/36% unfavorable. Democrat Cordray is 44% favorable/28% unfavorable. Even though Trump carried Ohio by a solid margin in 2016, his approval rating in the state is now 44% approve/51% disapprove, close to his national average.

VIRGINIA 7: Rep. David Brat (R) and Abigail Spanberger (D): even (47-47)
CALIFORNIA 45: Katie Porter (D) over Rep. Mimi Walters (R): +5 (48-43)
PENNSYLVANIA 7: Susan Wild (D) over Marty Nothstein (R): +8 (50-42)

RON’S COMMENT: VIRGINIA 7––The previous polls we reported had GOP incumbent Brat up by 3-4 points. This latest one shows a tie, based on the pollster’s standard midterm turnout model. (Their other two models have Democrat Spanberger ahead by 3-5 points.) Brat is rated 35% favorable/27% unfavorable. Spanberger is 43% favorable/19% unfavorable. Trump’s rating in the district is 47% approve/46% disapprove.
CALIFORNIA 45––GOP incumbent Walters trails her Democratic rival in this poll. Walters won the seat in 2014. Porter, who ran to the left in the Democratic primary, is a consumer protection lawyer. Over time this Orange County district has added more Asian-American and Latino voters. Clinton beat Trump here by 5 points.
PENNSYLVANIA 7––Comparing the last Monmouth poll to this new NYT/Siena poll, Democrat Wild has expanded her lead from 3 points to 8 points since earlier this month. This district has been redrawn and moved to the left. Moderate Republican Charlie Dent, the incumbent for most of the area, is not seeking re-election.

Prepared by Ian Gray and Laura Reul of the MSL Group

Yesterday, President Trump spoke at the United Nations General Assembly. His speech drew substantial coverage across news and social media. Here are the key stats on the coverage:

  • Total number of news media stories: 3,105 articles in US news publications
  • Total number of social engagements on news media stories (comments, likes, and shares of news articles on public facing social media): 3,071,540
  • Total number of social media posts (on public facing social media): 226,159
  • By a large margin, CNN garnered the most social engagement (>10M) and was the most significant news publication driving social media engagement.
  • The top word mentioned in news coverage and social media coverage of his speech at the UN is “laughing.”

Among voters nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the following issues?

% = Approve/Disapprove
The economy: 52%/42%
Immigration: 42%/54%
Healthcare: 39%/53%

RON’S COMMENT: As other polls have also found, the economy is a good issue for Trump––with a majority of voters giving him positive marks. On the other hand, healthcare has been a bad issue for him ever since the first House bill to repeal-and-replace Obamacare flamed out. Immigration is also a drag on Trump among all voters––42% immigration approval is a lower than the 46% of the vote he received in 2016 and his overall job rating (which averages 44% today).

Among voters nationwide 

How confident, if at all, are you that the Justice Department special counsel Robert Mueller is conducting a fair investigation into Russian involvement in the 2016 election: very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?

Very confident: 30%
Somewhat confident: 26%
Not too confident: 15%
Not at all confident: 22%

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
FLORIDA: Marist/NBC, Sept. 16-20; Quinnipiac, Sept. 20-24
OREGON: Clout (R) for Leona Consulting (R), Sept. 20-23
OHIO: NBC/Marist, Sept. 16-20
CALIFORNIA 45: NYT/Siena, Sept. 21-25
VIRGINIA 7: Monmouth, Sept. 15-24
PENNSYLVANIA 7: NYT/Siena, Sept. 21-25
TRUMP ISSUE APPROVAL: Fox News, Sept. 16-19

L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans

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