Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, September 20, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 38% (Gallup) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 46%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today, which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
ELECTIONS: 2018
Among voters in each state and district
SENATE
TEXAS: Beto O’Rourke (D) over Sen. Ted Cruz (R): +2 (49-47)
FLORIDA: Rick Scott (R) and Sen. Bill Nelson (D): even (48-48)
NEVADA: Sen. Dean Heller (R) over Jacky Rosen (D): +4 (48-44)
ARIZONA: Kyrsten Sinema (D) over Martha McSally (R): +4 (49-45)
CALIFORNIA: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) over Kevin de Leon (D): +20 (44-24)
OHIO: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) over Jim Renacci (R): +16 (49-32)
MASSACHUSETTS: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) over Geoff Diehl (R): +30 (54-24)
PENNSYLVANIA: Sen. Bob Casey (D) over Lou Barletta (R): +14 (52-38)
RON’S COMMENT: In today’s polls, Texas, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Ohio are good news for Democrats. Nevada is good news for Republicans. The others are what you’d expect. Florida, Arizona and Nevada are on the razor’s edge, while Texas is in doubt with conflicting polls.
TEXAS: Yesterday, we reported a poll from Quinnipiac that had GOP incumbent Cruz ahead by 9 points. Today, we have an Ipsos poll that shows Democrat O’Rourke ahead by 2 points. Which one to believe? For starters, there is a difference in methodology––the Quinnipiac poll is conducted through live cell and landline phone interviewing and Ipsos conducted its poll online. Also, there is a time frame difference––the Quinnipiac poll was conducted Sept. 11-17 and the and Ipsos poll was conducted a little earlier, Sept. 6-14. Looking at the demos in the Ipsos poll, O’Rourke is winning Democrats 91-3 and independents 44-35. Cruz wins Republicans 87-8. O’Rourke is winning women by 47-44 and, surprisingly, men 47-46. Cruz carries whites 60-33, but O’Rourke wins blacks 78-14 and Hispanics 64-27. Interestingly, 63% of voters now view Cruz as a “traditional politician,” while only 28% of voters see O’Rourke that way. The average of recent polls has Cruz ahead by 3.7 points. Handicappers rate the race lean or likely Republican.
FLORIDA: The average of recent polls has Republican Scott ahead by a super tiny 0.2 points. Handicappers rate the race a toss-up.
NEVADA: The average of recent polls has GOP incumbent Heller ahead by 0.3 points. Handicappers rate the race a toss-up.
ARIZONA: The average of recent polls has Democrat Sinema ahead by 2 points. Handicappers rate the race a toss-up.
OHIO: Democratic incumbent Brown’s job rating is 50% approve/27% disapprove. On the tariff issue in Ohio––42% of voters support Trump’s tariffs and 44% oppose them. The average of recent polls has incumbent Brown ahead by 14.5 points. Handicappers rate the race lean, likely or safe Democratic. (Sidebar: 27% of Ohio Republicans, 36% of Democrats and 27% of independents would like to see their current GOP governor,John Kasich, run for president.)
GOVERNOR
OHIO: Mike DeWine (R) over Richard Cordray (D): +5 (42-37)
FLORIDA: Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +6 (51-45)
NEVADA: Adam Laxalt (R) over Steve Sisolak (D): +1 (45-44)
ARIZONA: Gov. Doug Ducey (R)over David Garcia (D): +11 (53-42)
CALIFORNIA: Gavin Newsom (D) over John Cox (R): +12 (52-40)
PENNSYLVANIA: Gov. Tom Wolf (D) over Scott Wagner (R): +12 (52-40)
MASSACHUSETTS: Gov. Charlie Baker (R) over Jay Gonzalez (D): +27 (55-28)
RON’S COMMENT: Polls in Ohio, Nevada and Arizona are good for Republicans. Florida is good for Democrats––it shows that Gillum maintains the advantage. The California poll shows a closer race than earlier surveys, although Democrat Newsom continues to hold a clear lead.
OHIO: Republican DeWine wins men by 12 and loses women by 1. He also carries independents 34-29.Handicappers rate the race toss-up or tilt Republican.
FLORIDA:The average of recent polls has Democrat Gillumahead by 5.3 points. Handicappers rate the race a toss-up.
NEVADA: Although Republican Laxalt has a slim lead in today’s poll, the average of recent polls has Democrat Sisolak ahead by 4.3 points. Handicappers rate the race toss-up or tilt Democratic.
ARIZONA: We’re seeing Republican incumbent Ducey’s lead bounce up and down, depending upon the poll. The average of recent polls has himahead by 7.3 points. Handicappers rate the race likely or lean Republican.
CALIFORNIA: Though he’s leading by double digits, Democrat Newsom is underperforming Hillary Clinton in this deep blue state (52% vs. 62%). Handicappers rate the race solid or safe Democratic.
MASSACHUSETTS: Republican Baker, who governs a deeply blue state, is one of the nation’s most popular governors. Handicappers rate the race solid or safe Republican.
HOUSE
NEW JERSEY 7: Tom Malinowski (D) over Rep. Leonard Lance (R): +3 (46-43)
NEW JERSEY 2: Jeff Van Drew(D) over Seth Grossman (R): +23 (55-32)
CALIFORNIA 25: Rep. Steve Knight (R) over Katie Hill (D): +2 (47-45)
RON’S COMMENT: NEW JERSEY 7: GOP incumbent Lance, who was first elected in 2008, is seeking re-election in a district that Clinton won by 11 points in 2016. Lance opposed his party’s leadership on both the GOP tax bill and the repeal and replace of Obamacare. Democrat Malinowski, who immigrated from Poland as a child,was assistant secretary of state for human rights under Obama. Handicappers rate the race toss-up or tilt Republican…. NEW JERSEY 2: This seat has been held by Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R) since 1985. Democrat Van Drew has a wide lead in this poll, making it a prime Democratic pick up opportunity…. Republican CALIFORNIA 25: GOP incumbent Knight has a fight on his hands in his re-election bid. His personal rating is 41% favorable/40% unfavorable. Clinton won the district in 2016, which is located just north of L.A. Handicappers rate the race toss-up or tilt Republican.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TEXAS, FLORIDA,NEVADA, ARIZONA, CALIFORNIA: Ipsos/UVA, Sept. 5-12
MASSACHUSETTS: Suffolk, Sept. 13-17
PENNSYLVANIA: Rasmussen, Sept. 12-13
OHIO: Baldwin Wallace Univ., Sept. 5-15
NEW JERSEY 7: Monmouth, Sept. 13-17
NEW JERSEY 2: Stockton Univ., Sept. 12-18
CALIFORNIA 25: Siena/NYT, Sept. 17-19
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