Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, September 19, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 38% (Gallup) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today, which is 11 points higher than his approval rating…. The Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that 7% of Democrats, 86% of Republicans and 36% of independents approve of the president’s job performance.
ELECTIONS: 2018
Among voters in each state and district
SENATE
TEXAS: Sen. Ted Cruz (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +9 (54-45)
WISCONSIN: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) over Leah Vukmir (R): +11 (53-42)
MICHIGAN: Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) over John James (R): +15 (55-40)
VIRGINIA: Sen. Tim Kaine (D) over Corey Stewart (R): +16 (52-36-L5)
MARYLAND: Sen. Ben Cardin (D) over Tony Campbell (R): +39 (56-17-Other 9)
RON’S COMMENT: All five of the incumbents tested today are running clearly ahead. Margins in Wisconsin, Michigan, Maryland and Virginia are no surprise. The Texas poll will be a disappointment for Democrats––they expected a narrower gap.
TEXAS: Republican Cruz is doing better in this poll than in recent surveys. In fact, there is little in this poll’s internal data that is particularly good news for O’Rourke: Cruz is winning women 50-48 and men 57-42. Whites support Cruz 66-32, but O’Rourke leads Hispanics 54-45 and blacks 97- 3 (which means his support within this strong Democratic constituency is already maxed out). Independents go with O’Rourke 51-47. Cruz’s job approval is 53% approve/43% disapprove and his personal rating is 52% favorable/43% unfavorable. Here’s the killer for the Democrats: O’Rourke rates 43% favorable/42% unfavorable, an indication that news stories and campaign attacks about his 1998 DWI arrest and allegedly fleeing the scene of an accident may have hurt him….Notice that the undecided vote in this poll is only 1%, which is a little strange with more than six weeks to go…. Anyway, the average of recent polls has Cruz ahead by 4.5 points. Handicappers rate the race lean or likely Republican.
WISCONSIN: Incumbent Baldwin’s personal rating is 48% favorable/40% unfavorable. The average of recent polls has her ahead by 9.5 points. Handicappers rate the race likely or lean Democratic.
(Sidebar: Paul Ryan’s personal rating in his home state of Wisconsin is net negative: 42% favorable/49% unfavorable.)
MICHIGAN: The average of recent polls has Stabenow ahead by 18 points. Handicappers rate the Michigan race likely or solid Democratic.
VIRGINIA: The average of recent polls has Kaine ahead by 16.5 points. Handicappers rate the race solid or safe Democratic.
MARYLAND: Democratic incumbent Cardin looks like an easy winner. Note that other candidates get 9%.
GOVERNOR
MARYLAND: Gov. Larry Hogan (R) over Ben Jealous (D): +22 (54-32-G1-L1)
WISCONSIN: Tony Evers (D) over Gov. Scott Walker (R): +5 (49-44)
MICHIGAN: Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Bill Schuette (R): +9 (50-41)
TEXAS: Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Lupe Valdez (D): +19 (58-39)
ARIZONA: Gov. Doug Ducey (R) over David Garcia (D): +3 (49-46)
RON’S COMMENT: Two open GOP governorships in important Midwestern states that Trump carried are in serious jeopardy. Three incumbent GOP governors in today’s polls are leading––two by big margins and one by a small advantage.
MARYLAND: Republican Hogan, one of the most popular governors in the nation, leads his Democratic opponent in this deeply blue state by a wide 22 points. Hogan also beats Jealous on a range of issues––economic development, education and healthcare––by solid margins. The average of recent polls has Hogan ahead by 19 points. Handicappers rate the race likely Republican…. (Sidebar: In the Maryland AG’s race, incumbent Democrat Brian Frosh leads Republican Craig Wolf 58-26.)
MICHIGAN: If Democrat Whitmer wins, this would be an important big-state pick up for Democrats. The average of recent polls has herahead by 11.5 points. Handicappers rate the race likely or solid Democratic.
WISCONSIN: The average of recent polls has Democrat Evers ahead by 4 points. Voters are closely split on incumbent Walker’s job performance: 46% approve/51% disapprove. Handicappers rate the Wisconsin race a toss-up.
TEXAS: Republican incumbent Abbott holds a solid lead––which is no surprise. Handicappers rate the race solid or safe Republican.
ARIZONA: This poll shows Republican incumbent Ducey with a narrow edge. The average of recent polls has Ducey ahead by 6 points. Handicappers rate the Wisconsin race lean or likely Republican.
HOUSE
TEXAS 7: Rep. John Culberson (R) over Lizzie Fletcher (D): +3 (48-45)
RON’S COMMENT: TEXAS 7: GOP incumbent Culberson, who was first elected in 2000, has a fight on his hands. Democrat Fletcher is a corporate lawyer who is targeting anti-Trump Republicans. Romney carried this relatively wealthy and well-educated district by 21 points, but Trump lost it by 1 point––a big red warning flag. Handicappers rate the race toss-up or tilt Republican.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TEXAS: Quinnipiac, Sept. 11-17
WISCONSIN: Marquette, Sept. 12-16
MICHIGAN: Target-Insyght/MIRS, Sept. 10-14
VIRGINIA: UMW, Sept. 4-9
MARYLAND, Goucher College, Sept. 11-16
TEXAS 7: Siena/NYT, Sept. 14-18
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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