LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Tennessee, Arizona, Missouri, Montana, New Mexico, California, Florida

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 37% (CNN) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would be 41%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today, which is 12 points higher than his approval rating.

ELECTIONS: 2018 
Among voters in each state and district

SENATE
TENNESSEE: Phil Bredesen (D) over Marsha Blackburn (R) +5 (50-45)
ARIZONA: Kyrsten Sinema (D) over Martha McSally (R): +7 (50-43)
MISSOURI (CBS): Josh Hawley (R) and Sen. Claire McCaskill (D): even (45-45)
MISSOURI (Trafalgar R): Josh Hawley (R) over Sen. Claire McCaskill (D): +3 (47-44)
MONTANA: Sen. Jon Tester (D) over Matt Rosendale (R): +2 (47-45)

RON’S COMMENT
TENNESSEE: Democrat Bredesen is better liked in Tennessee, which is why he’s still in the game in this Republican state. His personal rating in the poll is 52% favorable/24% unfavorable, which is much better than Blackburn’s 41% favorable/39% unfavorable. Tennessee is similar to West Virginia this year––each has a former Democratic governor who has maintained a measure of personal popularity leading Republican candidates in otherwise pro-Trump, pro-Republican states. Or, to put it simply: Candidate popularity trumps Trump. We’ll see how long that lasts.
BOTTOM LINE:The average of recent polls has Bredesen ahead by 1.3 points. Handicappers rate the race toss-up or lean Republican.
ARIZONA: 84% of Sinema’s voters and 82% of McSally’s voters say their minds are made up and don’t expect to switch sides. Trump’s job rating in Arizona is lower than his national rating: 39%/approve/57% disapprove.
BOTTOM LINE: The average of recent polls has Sinema ahead by 1.5 points. Handicappers rate the race a toss-up.
MISSOURI: Two new polls in the Show-Me state continue to find that Democratic incumbent McCaskill is in trouble. Based on the CBS poll, 72% of Democrats in Missouri say they’re “definitely” going to vote, compared to 67% of Republicans––which gives McCaskill some juice.
BOTTOM LINE: The average of recent polls has Hawley ahead by 1 point. Handicappers rate the race a toss-up.
MONTANA: Democratic incumbent Tester gets 99% of Democrats, 5% of Republicans and 40% of independents.
BOTTOM LINE: The average of recent polls has Tester ahead by 2.5 points. Handicappers rate the race likely, tilt or lean Democratic.

HOUSE
NEW MEXICO 1: Deb Haaland (D) over Janice Arnold-Jones (R): +8 (49-41-L3)
NEW MEXICO 2 (Albuquerque Journal): Yvette Herrell (R) over Xochitl Torres Small (D): +7 (48-41)
NEW MEXICO 2 (Siena/NYT): Yvette Herrell (R) over Xochitl Torres Small (D): +1 (45-44)
FLORIDA 2: REP. Carlos Curbelo (R) over Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D): +3 (47-44)
CALIFORNIA 39: Young Kim (R) over Gil Cisneros (D): +10 (51-41)

RON’S COMMENT
NEW MEXICO 1: Democrat Haaland is one of only two U.S. House candidates across the nation this year who could become the first Native American woman to win election to the House. The other is in Kansas. Haaland is winning Hispanic voters by 21 points. This is a Democratic-leaning district that includes much of the Albuquerque area. The seat is now held by Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham, who is running for governor. Handicappers rate the race solid or safe Democratic. 
NEW MEXICO 2: Republican Herrell owes her poll margin to her lead among independents, 55-24. This is an open seat in a GOP-leaning district that is heavily rural with a large Hispanic population. The seat is now held by Republican Steve Pearce, who’s running for governor. Handicappers rate the race lean or tilt Republican. 
FLORIDA 2: Republican incumbent Curbelo has distanced himself from Trump, especially on immigration. He has a positive personal rating of 52% favorable/27% unfavorable. Democrat Mucarsel-Powell is an immigrant from Ecuador who moved to the U.S. as a teenager. Handicappers rate the race lean or tilt Republican. 
CALIFORNIA 39: Republican Kim holds a clear lead in this poll. The seat is now held by retiring Rep. Ed Royce (R). Clinton carried the district by 9 points over Trump. Handicappers rate the race toss-up.

TUESDAY TRIVIA
Who were the most recent member of the U.S. Senate to be elected by a write-in vote?

(See answer below)

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TENNESSEE: CNN, Sept. 11-15
ARIZONA: CNN, Sept. 11-15
MISSOURI: CBS/YouGov, Sept. 10-14
MISSOURI: Trafalgar (R), Sept. 11-13
MONTANA: CBS/YouGov, Sept. 10-14
NEW MEXICO 1: Albuquerque Journal, Sept. 7-13
NEW MEXICO 2: Albuquerque Journal, Sept. 7-13
NEW MEXICO 2: Siena/NYT, Sept. 13-15
FLORIDA 2: Siena/NYT, Sept. 13-17
CALIFORNIA 39: Monmouth, Sept. 13-16

L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.

TRIVIA ANSWER
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) of Alaska in 2010. She lost the Republican primary that year and went on to win the general election based on write-ins.

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