Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, September 17, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Up 1 from Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 37% (CNN) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 42%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today, which is 12 points higher than his approval rating.
ELECTIONS: 2018
Among voters nationwide
SENATE
NEW MEXICO: Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) over Mick Rich (R): +21 (47-26-L16)
NEVADA: Jacky Rosen (D) over Sen. Dean Heller (R): +2 (47-45)
WEST VIRGINIA: Sen. Joe Manchin (D) over Patrick Morrisey (R): +12 (45-33)
MINNESOTA: Sen. Tina Smith (DFL) over Karin Housley (R): +7 (44-37)
MINNESOTA: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (DFL) over Jim Newberger (R): +30 (60-30)
RON’S COMMENT: New Mexico: Democratic incumbent Heinrich enjoys a wide 21-point lead in his re-election bid, thanks largely to a split in the non-Democratic vote between former governor and Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson, who’s getting 16%, and the GOP nominee, Rich, who gets 26%. Johnson draws 37% of independents and 18% of Republicans (holding Rich down to 62% among his fellow partisans). Handicappers rate the race solid or safe Democratic….
Nevada: The race stays close, as it will likely remain until Election Day, with Democratic challenging Rosen edging GOP incumbent Heller, who’s job rating is a weak 38% approve/50% disapprove. Handicappers rate the race toss-up….
West Virginia: For the time being, it’s all about the candidate in this race. Manchin hangs on to a clear lead in this Trump stronghold, and the major reason is that he’s better liked personally than is his GOP challenger: Manchin is 47% favorable/37% unfavorable. Republican Morrisey is 32% favorable/44% unfavorable. In this state, Republicans need to make this fight about party, ideology and Trump––who rates 55% favorable/36% unfavorable. Handicappers rate the race toss-up or lean or tilt Democratic. ….
Minnesota: Incumbent Democrat Smith still needs to get better known, but she holds a modest lead. Handicappers rate this special election (to fill Al Franken’s seat) likely or lean Democratic…. Klobuchar is far ahead, and will likely stay that way. Opposition efforts will focus on the state’s other Senate race instead. Handicappers rate the Klobuchar race solid or safe Democratic.
GOVERNOR
MINNESOTA: Tim Walz (DFL) over Jeff Johnson (R): +9 (45-46)
OREGON: Gov. Kate Brown (D) over Knute Buehler (R): +10 (46-36-Other 6)
FLORIDA: Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +6 (48-42-Other 2)
ARKANSAS: Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) over Jared Henderson (D): +35 (60-25)
NEVADA: Steve Sisolak (D) over Adam Laxalt (R): +12 (50-38)
RON’S COMMENT: Minnesota: Democrat Walz has averaged a 7-point lead based on the most recent four polls. Walz wins women by 18 points and ties Republican Johnson among men. Walz leads independent voters by 14 points. The current governor, Democrat Mark Dayton, is not seeking re-election. Handicappers rate the race lean Democratic….
Oregon: Here are the favorability ratings of the gubernatorial candidates: 42% favorable/41% unfavorable for Democrat Brown and 27% favorable/27% unfavorable for Republican Buehler. Handicappers rate the race lean Democratic….
Florida: Here’s another poll showing Democrat Gillum ahead in Florida, this one has him up by 6 points. His average lead based on recent polls is 3.8 points. Current governor, Republican Rick Scott, is running for the Senate instead. Handicappers rate the race toss-up….
Arkansas: Looks like Hutchinson’s re-election bid is in the bag. Handicappers rate the race solid or safe Republican….
Nevada: This new Gravis poll shows Republican Sisolak doing much better than did the recent Suffolk Univ. poll (+12 vs. +2). Handicappers rate the race toss-up or tilt Democratic.
HOUSE
KANSAS 2: Paul Davis (D) over Steve Watkins (R): +1 (45-44)
MAINE 2: Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) over Jared Golden (D): +5 (47-42)
COLORADO 6: Jason Crow (D) over Rep. Mike Coffman (R): +11 (51-40)
RON’S COMMENT: Kansas 2: Democrat Davis is former minority leader in the state House. Republican Watkins is a former Army Ranger. Davis was the 2014 Democratic nominee for governor. He lost to then-incumbent Gov. Sam Brownback (R). Handicappers rate the race toss-up….
Maine 2: GOP incumbent Poliquin is ahead, but he’s in a tough race. Golden is a state legislator and a former Marine. Worth noting: Poliquin is the only Republican U.S. House member from New England. Handicappers rate the race toss-up….
Colorado 6: Democrat Crow is beating GOP incumbent Coffman by a clear margin. Crow is a lawyer and a former Army Ranger. Clinton beat Trump in this district by 10 points. Crow says he won’t support Nancy Pelosi for Democratic House leader. Handicappers, in an abundance of caution, rate the race toss-up.
HISTORICAL HOUSE SEAT GAINS/LOSSES
Midterm elections since 1978
The following are the House seat shifts in the first midterm election for each presidential term of office:
2010: Obama (D), Democrats lost 63 seats
2002: Bush 43 (R), Republicans gained 6 seats
1994: Clinton (R), Democrats lost 53 seats
1990: Bush 41 (R): Republicans lost 8 seats
1982: Reagan (R): Republicans lost 28 seats
1978: Carter (D): Democrats lost 11 seats
RON’S COMMENT: Democrats need to add 25 seats to their current total to shift House control away from the GOP this year. In midterm elections held in the first term of each presidency, the party of the incumbent president has lost seats in five of six midterm elections and gained seats in only one election. Performance for the president’s party since 1978 has been an average loss of 26 seats in the House.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEW MEXICO: Research & Polling/Journal, Sept. 7-13
MINNESOTA: Mason Dixon, Sept. 10-12
OREGON: Hoffman (R), Sept. 12-13
FLORIDA: Rasmussen, Sept. 10-11
ARKANSAS: Hendrix College, Sept. 5-7
NEVADA: Gravis, Sept. 11-12
WEST VIRGINIA: Emerson College, Sept. 13-15
KANSAS 2, MAINE 2, COLORADO 6: Siena/NYT, Sept. 12-15
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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