Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, September 13, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 41%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on seven polls, ranging from 37% (CNN) to 46% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 41%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today, which is 13 points higher than his approval rating…. Note: A number of media outlets have reported that the most recent polling shows Trump’s popularity “plunging.” While our recent averages have shown Trump’s approval rating dropping from 44% to 40%, and now at 41%, we wouldn’t exactly characterize the shift as “plunging.” If you notice, CNN’s poll gives Trump his worst ratings (4 points below average), just as Rasmussen gives Trump his best ratings (5 points above average). If there is a “plunge” afoot, we’re not seeing it yet, at least in terms of poll averages.
Among voters in each state and district
NORTH DAKOTA: Kevin Cramer (R) over Heidi Heitkamp (D): +4 (48-44)
MISSOURI: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) and Josh Hawley (R): even (45-45)
INDIANA: Mike Braun (R) over Sen. Joe Donnelly (D): +2 (45-43)
FLORIDA: Rick Scott (R) over Sen. Bill Nelson (D): +2 (46-44-4)
TENNESSEE: Marsha Blackburn (R) over Phil Bredesen (D): +3 (47-44)
ARIZONA: Kyrsten Sinema (D) over Martha McSally (R): +3 (47-44)
RON’S COMMENT: Overview––The good news for Republicans, based on these polls, is that they’re leading three Democratic incumbents (ND, IN, FL) and tied against one (MO). It’s also good news for the Republicans that their candidate is up in Tennessee. But, this polling also shows that Democratic voter interest and commitment may jeopardize the ability of Republicans to get out enough votes on Election Day to match Democratic enthusiasm.
- Tennessee: Republican Blackburn is ahead in this poll. But, more of Bredesen’s supporters are interested in the election (78% vs. 66%). In addition, 81% of Democrat Bredesen’s supporters say they are certain to vote for him, while 74% of Blackburn supporters say the same about her.
- North Dakota: Though Republican Cramer is ahead in this Fox News poll, slightly more Heitkamp supporters are interested in this election (81% vs. 79%). Also, 85% of Democrat Heitkamp’s supporters say they are certain to vote for her, while 84% of Cramer supporters say the same about him.
- Missouri: The two candidates are tied in this Fox News poll, but it also shows that a bit more of McCaskill’s supporters are interested in the election (76% vs. 72%). Additionally, 79% of Democrat McCaskill’s supporters say they are certain to vote for her, while 68% of Republican Hawley’s supporters say the same about him.
- Indiana: Republican Braun is ahead in this poll, which is at odds with other recent surveys that had Democrat Donnelly on top. This poll also finds that more Donnelly supporters are interested in this election (67% vs. 61%). On top of that, 67% of Democrat Donnelly’s supporters say they are certain to vote for him, while 65% of Braun’s supporters say the same about him.
- Arizona: Democrat Sinema is ahead in this survey, and that’s good news for Democrats. Other recent polls had Republican McSally up by a few points. Moreover, this poll shows that slightly more Sinema supporters are interested in the election (71% vs. 69%). Also, 77% of Democrat Sinema’s supporters say they are certain to vote for her, while 70% of Republican McSally’s supporters say the same about her.
- Florida: Continues to be a close race with small, see-sawing leads. Sen. Nelson’s job rating is 40% approve/35% disapprove. Gov. Scott’s job rating is 48% approve/40% disapprove.
FLORIDA (FL Chamber): Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +4 (47-43)
FLORIDA (SurveyUSA): Andrew Gillum (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +4 (47-43)
RON’S COMMENT: We’ve now seen a series of post-primary polls showing Democrat Gillum leading Republican DeSantis for governor of Florida. These two provide matching results, something we rarely see.
NEW YORK 19: Antonio Delgado (D) over Rep. John Faso (R): +3 (48-45-3)
RON’S COMMENT: Republican Faso, the incumbent, is trailing Democrat Delgado, a lawyer and former hip-hop performer. A big factor helping Delgado is voter enthusiasm: 73% of his supporters express a lot of interest in the election, while only 57% of Faso’s supporters do.
Among voters nationwide
Which comes closest to your opinion on affirmative action? Do you think affirmative action should be….
Allowed in all situations: 11%
Allowed in most situations: 43%
Not permitted in most situations: 27%
Not permitted in all situations: 19%
RON’S COMMENT: 54% of voters want to permit affirmative action in most or all situations, while 46% do not want to permit affirmative in most or all situations. 74% of Democrats, 51% of independents, 38% of Republicans, 51% of whites, 69% of blacks and 63% of Hispanics want to permit affirmative action in most or all situations.
Among voters nationwide
Which comes closest to your view….
Gay and Lesbian couples should be allowed to marry: 50%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry: 21%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship: 21%
Not sure: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: Half the electorate favors allowing gay marriage and an additional 21% favor allowing civil unions. Only about 1 in 5 voters oppose any recognition of same-sex relationships.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
AFFIRMATIVE ACTION, GAY MARRIAGE: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 9-11
NORTH DAKOTA, TENNESSEE, MISSOURI, INDIANA, ARIZONA: Fox News, Sept. 8-11
FLORIDA: Florida Chamber, Sept. 6-9; SurveyUSA, Sept. 7-9
NEW YORK 19: Monmouth, Sept. 6-10
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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