Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, September 12, 2018
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 40%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: President Trump has slipped back to 40%, indicating that last week’s news didn’t help him. Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 37% (CNN) to 45% (Rasmussen). Without these two extremes, it would still be 40%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today, which is 14 points higher than his approval rating.
ELECTIONS: 2018
Among voters in each state and district
SENATE
NEVADA: Jacky Rosen (D) over Sen. Dean Heller (R): +1 (42-41-Other 5)
ARIZONA: Martha McSally (R) over Kyrsten Sinema (D): +4 (49-45)
RON’S COMMENT: In Nevada, Democrat Rosen’s personal rating is 31% favorable/36% unfavorable. Republican incumbent Heller, who trails in this poll by a point, is 38% favorable/42% unfavorable. Former Sen. Harry Reid (D) rates 33% favorable/51% unfavorable. Trump’s job rating in Nevada, a state he lost in 2016, is 46% approve/50% disapprove. Handicappers rate the race toss-up…. In Arizona, McSally leads the second poll in a row––which is good news for the GOP. Handicappers rate the race toss-up.
GOVERNOR
NEVADA: Steve Sisolak (D) over Adam Laxalt (R): +2 (37-35-Other 9)
RON’S COMMENT: Sisolak’s personal rating is 34% favorable/35% unfavorable. Laxalt is 36% favorable/29% unfavorable. GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval, who is not seeking re-election, rates 50% favorable/23% unfavorable. Handicappers rate the race toss-up or tilt Democratic.
HOUSE
TEXAS 23: Rep. Will Hurd (R) over Gina Ortiz Jones (D): +8 (51-43)
RON’S COMMENT: GOP incumbent Hurd posts a clear lead in a battleground district. He was one of a few Republicans who voted against the bill to repeal and replace Obamacare. He’s also kept his distance from Trump on the Russia issue. Jones is a former Air Force intelligence officer. This district is majority Hispanic, running along the Rio Grande to San Antonio’s suburbs.
JEFF SESSIONS
Among voters nationwide
Favorable: 17%
Unfavorable: 43%
Don’t know: 40%
RON’S COMMENT: 19% of Republicans, 13% of Democrats and 21% of independents have a favorable view of the nation’s Attorney General. You’d think that, with numbers like these, Trump would be able––at least politically––to fire Sessions. But, this poll also finds that only 29% of voters would approve of Trump firing his AG, while 50% would disapprove. Only a plurality of one demographic reported, Republicans, would approve of firing Sessions, 49-23.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Among voters nationwide
Now thinking about a year from now, do you expect economic conditions in this country will be very good, somewhat good, somewhat poor, or very poor?
Very + somewhat good: 65%
Very + somewhat poor: 30%
RON’S COMMENT: 47% of Democrats, 64% of independents and 92% of Republicans expect economic conditions to be good. Three years ago, it was 54% good/46% poor among all Americans.
SAN DIEGO: SHORT-TERM RENTALS
Among voters in San Diego
Have you ever stayed in a short-term vacation rental advertised on a home-sharing website like Airbnb or HomeAway?
Yes: 40%
No: 57%
Have you ever rented out a home or part of a home for short term stays of under 30 days?
Yes: 25%
No: 71%
The city of San Diego recently approved legislation that limits short-term rentals to one’s primary residence only. Do you support or oppose those restrictions?
Support STR restrictions: 40%
Oppose STR restrictions: 37%
RON’S COMMENT: In San Diego, 25% of adults say they’ve rented out property for a short-term rental (STR). Moreover, 40% say they’ve stayed in a STR. That number represents a sizable potential constituency in support of online services such as Airbnb and HomeAway. To prove the point, this poll also finds that 37% of voters oppose San Diego’s restrictions on STRs, which is fairly close to the percentage who have stayed in a STR. Clearly, as more and more people rent out or stay in STRs, the pro-STR political constituency will likely grow––which means local governments that want to restrict STRs need to do it sooner rather than later.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEVADA: Suffolk, Sept. 5-10
ARIZIONA: OH Predictive Insights, Sept. 5-6
TEXAS 23: Siena/NYT, Sept. 10-11
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: CNN, Sept. 6-9
JEFF SESSIONS: Quinnipiac, Sept. 6-9
SAN DIEGO AND SHORT-TERM RENTALS: SurveyUSA, Sept. 4
Other = Other candidate(s), may include independents and third party entrants
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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