NATO Supreme Allied Commander Transformation General Denis Mercier assessed that the risk for a major interstate conflict increased in recent years. While addressing to the Atlantic Council, he pointed to the shift in military and economic power from North America and western Europe to countries like China and Russia.
“China is leveraging its economic power to increase defense spending as a foundation of the growing global power strategy. The neighboring India is following the same path and could reach a comparable status in the medium term. At the same time, Russia is resurfacing with the will to become a major power again, challenging the established order in the former Soviet space,” said the French general.
He compared the findings of the recent Strategic Foresight Analysis (SFA) report to the first one form 2013. Twenty global trends and 59 of their policy implications for NATO have been identified in the latest report, released several weeks ago. According to the report, China and Russia are major defense spenders. In 2015 China has spent around 215 billion dollars on defense. The report notes that 22 NATO countries have increased their defense spending last year and it is expected this to continue.
“Asia-Pacific economies are projected to drive 60% of the total global increase in defense acquisition, research and development and 30% of the total defense acquisition budget through 2020,” states the report.
It emphasizes that NATO will have to develop stronger ties with more countries because of the shift in political power and details other risks to the missions of NATO. Higher levels of urbanization are noted as a possible reason for NATO interventions to be forced into densely populated cities, while the climate change may increase military activity in the Arctic, The Hill reports.
According to Mercer, the first report from 2013 was more optimistic than the recent one.
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