LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Voting Issues – Celebrities Talking Politics – Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Texas, Georgia – Trans Athletes – Abortions

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, June 16, 2022

Up 2 from Tuesday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 39% (Reuters) to 44% (Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 56% today (up 1 from Tuesday), putting him at 15 points net negative.

SENATE: 2022
Among voters statewide

John Fetterman (D) over Mehmet Oz (R): +9 (46-37-4)
RON’S COMMENT: Fetterman starts off the general election with a clear lead. He’s getting 82% of Democrats and 10% of Republicans. He beats Oz 44-24 among independents––which is the key to his current advantage. He also wins 60% of voters 34 and younger. The Hispanic vote is tied, 41-41. Blacks favor Fetterman 71-6 and Whites favor him 43-42…. One problem for Fetterman: 50% of voters say they want their vote this November to “change the direction President Biden is leading the nation” and only 24% want their vote to support Biden…. The seat is currently held by Sen. Pat Toomey (R) who is not seeking re-election.
Cheri Beasley (D) over Ted Budd (R): +4 (44-40-2)
RON’S COMMENT: This is the first poll showing Democrat Beasley leading, and there are raised eyebrows across the state over these numbers. The initial observation is that the Uvalde tragedy and other mass shootings, at least temporarily, may have hurt Budd, who owns a gun store and shooting range…. Millions have already been spent on both sides attacking each candidate…. The seat is currently held by retiring Sen. Richard Burr (R) who is supporting the Senate’s bipartisan gun bill.
Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Herschel Walker (R): Even (46-46)
RON’S COMMENT: Warnock leads Walker 83-7 among Blacks and Walker leads Warnock 65-29 among Whites. This is clearly a contest to watch.

Among voters statewide

Josh Shapiro (D) over Doug Mastriano (R): +4 (44-40)
RON’S COMMENT: Shapiro starts off the general election with a modest lead. He’s getting 82% of Democrats and 8% of Republicans. He beats Mastriano 37-32 among independents. He also wins 60% of voters 34 and younger. Mastriano wins the Hispanic vote, 41-38. Blacks favor Shapiro 68-5. Whites favor Mastriano 45-42.
Gov. Greg Abbott over Beto O’Rourke (D): +5 (48-43)
RON’S COMMENT: The two polls (May and April) before the Uvalde tragedy had Abbott ahead by an average of 9 points…. From the poll report––voters were asked who would do a better job handling these six issues: 

  • Situation at Mexican border: 53% Abbott, 38% O’Rourke
  • The economy: 52% Abbott, 38% O’Rourke
  • Response to the coronavirus: 51% Abbott, 40% O’Rourke
  • Election laws: 49% Abbott, 42% O’Rourke
  • Gun policy: 47% Abbott, 43% O’Rourke
  • Abortion: 44% O’Rourke, 42% Abbott

Gov. Brian Kemp (R) over Stacey Abrams (D): +5 (50-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Abrams leads Kemp 86-9% among Black voters and Kemp leads Abrams 70-27 among White voters.

Among voters nationwide  

Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for Congress?

  • Inflation and higher prices: 41%
  • Guns: 12%
  • Abortion: 10% 
  • Border security: 7%
  • Crime: 5%
  • Climate change: 5% 
  • Voting rights: 4%
  • Election integrity: 4% 
  • The coronavirus pandemic: 3% 
  • Foreign policy: 1%

RON’S COMMENT: Inflation dominates, and Republicans lead on the issue by a wide 55-36 margin…. Two recent hot button social issues, guns and abortion, are coming in second and third…. On guns, the parties are tied 47-47…. On abortion, Democrats lead 50-42…. Note how low the pandemic and foreign policy are––especially considering there is a continuing pandemic and a foreign war going on …. Top three issues by party:

  • For Democrats, the top three voting issues are inflation 27%, guns 20% and abortion 12%.
  • For Republicans, the top three are inflation 53%, border security 12% and abortion 7%.
  • For independents, the top three are inflation 43%, guns 10% and abortion 10%.

Among voters nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of companies providing assistance to employees to have abortions in other states that wouldn’t be allowed in their home state? 
Approve: 48%
Disapprove: 35%
Not sure: 17%
RON’S COMMENT: 23% of Republicans, 69% of Democrats and 42% of independents approve of companies providing assistance to employees to have abortions in other states that allow them.

Among adults nationwide

Thinking about transgender women and girls – people whose sex was classified as male at birth but who currently identify as female – do you think transgender women and girls should or should not be allowed to compete in sports with other women and girls at each of the following levels?

% = Should be allowed to participate in

  • Youth sports: 33%
  • High school sports: 30%
  • College sports: 28%
  • Professional sports: 28%

COMMENT: This survey finds 28% to 33% support for allowing transgender women and girls to compete in sports with other women and girls.

Do you think the greater social acceptance of transgender people is …?

Very/Somewhat good for society: 40%
Neither good nor bad for society: 35%
Very/Somewhat bad for society: 25%

COMMENT: More believe social acceptance of transgender people is good for society than bad, but 35% say it’s neither good nor bad…. 64% of Democrats believe it’s good for society, compared to 40% of Independents and 14% of Republicans.

Among voters nationwide

Do you support or oppose celebrities making public statements about political issues?

Support: 43%
Oppose: 48%

RON’S COMMENT: 64% of Democrats, 19% of Republicans and 38% of independents support celebrities making public statements about political issues.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TOP VOTING ISSUES: Fox News, June 10-13
TRANS ATHLETES: Washington Post-UMD, May 4–17
PENNSYLVANIA: USA Today/Suffolk, June 10-13
TEXAS: Quinnipiac, June 9-13
GEORGIA: ECU, June 6-9

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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