Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, March 17, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 41%
Down 2 from Saturday
RON’S COMMENT: Looks like Biden’s modest post-SOTU bump has dissipated. Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Quinnipiac) to 43% (Reuters). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (up 2 since Saturday), putting him at 14 points net negative…. On foreign policy:
- The Economist poll finds Biden’s rating for his handling of foreign policy to be 40% approve/52% disapprove.
- The Quinnipiac poll finds Biden’s foreign policy rating is 41% approve/53% disapprove, which is an improvement from mid-February when it was 36% approve/56% disapprove.
HAPPY ST. PATRICK’S DAY!
SENATE: 2022
Among voters statewide
MISSOURI
General election
Eric Greitens (R) over Lucas Kunce (D): +1 (46-45)
Eric Schmitt (R) over Lucas Kunce (D): +15 (55-40)
Vicky Hartler (R) over Lucas Kunce (D): +17 (56-39)
RON’S COMMENT: These numbers clearly explain a Republican predicament in the Show-Me state. Based on recent polling, Greitens now leads the GOP primary (31-23-17)––but if he’s the party’s nominee, he’s in for a tough fight in November. Holding this seat is a “must win” for Republicans if they want to capture control of the Senate. The two other Republican candidates, Schmitt and Hartzler, do much better in general election polling than Greitens…. This election is for the seat of retiring Sen. Roy Blunt (R)…. Greitens resigned Missouri’s governorship in 2018 over sexual misconduct and campaign finance allegations.
ALABAMA
Republican primary
Mike Durant: 34%
Katie Britt: 32%
Mo Brooks: 18%
RON’S COMMENT: Trump’s candidate, Brooks, isn’t doing well. In fact, Trump is reportedly considering pulling his endorsement; apparently, he’s upset with Brooks for praising former AG and Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions. A Politico headline also makes the point that the former president has “a branding concern” sticking with primary candidates who are not doing so well…. This election is for the seat of retiring Sen. Richard Shelby (R)…. Brooks is a member of the U.S. House, Britt is Shelby’s former Chief of Staff and Durant is an author and former army pilot.
UKRAINE, RUSSIA AND BIDEN
Among voters nationwide
BIDEN: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling the response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?
- March 16: 43% approve/50% disapprove
- March 7: 43% approve/46% disapprove
- Feb. 28: 40% approve/47% disapprove
RON’S COMMENT: The trendline of these Quinnipiac polls show a small rise in both Biden’s approval and disapproval ratings on Ukraine since the Russian invasion. But in all three polls, Biden rates net-negative on this issue.
WAR OPTIONS: Which comes closer to your view regarding the U.S. response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?
- The U.S. should do whatever it can to help Ukraine, even if it means direct war between the U.S. and Russia: 18%
- The U.S. should do whatever it can to help Ukraine, without risking a direct war between the U.S. and Russia: 74%
RON’S COMMENT: Big majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents prefer the second option to do what we can without risking a direct war with Russia.
- Also: 54% of U.S. voters support NATO’s refusal to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine and 32% oppose NATO’s refusal.
PRAISING PUTIN
Among U.S. voters nationwide
As you may know, some politicians and media figures have had words of praise for Russian President Vladimir Putin in the last several weeks. Does that make you view those individuals more favorably, less favorably, or doesn’t it affect your opinion of those individuals?
- More favorably: 2%
- Less favorably: 61%
- Have no affect: 32%
RON’S COMMENT: Praising Putin is not good business for American politicians or media people: 61% of U.S. voters view those who have done so in recent weeks less favorably…. Among all adults: 81% of Democrats, 45% of Republicans and 54% of independents say “less favorably”…. This is troubling news for Donald Trump. To make matters worse for him, a hefty 71% of Americans over 65, which is a constituency Trump carried in 2020, also say “less favorably.”
GAS PRICES AT THE PUMP
Among U.S. voters nationwide
How much of a problem has the price of gasoline been for you and your family lately; a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, a not too serious problem, or not a problem at all?
- Very serious: 36%
- Somewhat serious: 27%
- Not too serious: 22%
- Not a problem: 15%
RON’S COMMENT: A big majority of voters (63%) say gas prices are a serious problem for them, which is never good for the “ins” in an election year. Looking at adults by their partisan affiliations, 38% of Democrats, 85% of Republicans and 58% of independents say gas prices are a serious problem…. More on inflation:
- The Politico/Morning Consult poll finds 62% of voters believe the Biden administration is either very or somewhat responsible for the increasing inflation in the U.S. economy; 38% of Democrats, 60% of independents and 87% of Republicans agree.
VP RATINGS
Among U.S. voters nationwide
Kamala Harris ratings:
39% favorable/53% unfavorable
RON’S COMMENT: Harris’ ratings are net-negative nationally by 14 points. Her ratings by group are as follows:
- Independents: 32% favorable/55% unfavorable
- Democrats: 75% favorable/18% unfavorable
- Republicans: 8% favorable/88% unfavorable
- Women: 40% favorable/50% unfavorable
- Men: 39% favorable/55% unfavorable
- Whites: 35% favorable/59% unfavorable
- Blacks: 62% favorable/23% unfavorable
- Hispanics: 48% favorable/42% unfavorable
U.S. ALLIES AND ENEMIES
Among U.S. voters nationwide
Do you consider the countries listed below to be an ally or an enemy of the United States?
% = Ally/Enemy
- Ukraine: 80%/7%
- Poland: 76%/6%
- Germany: 73%/10%
- China: 11%/76%
- Russia: 6%/86%
RON’S COMMENT: Americans either love these countries or despise them. Ukraine, Poland and Germany get the love, and Russia and China get the revulsion.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
MISSOURI: Trafalgar (R), March 9-13
ALABAMA: McLaughlin & Assoc. (R)/Alabama Forestry Association, March 10-13
UKRAINE, RUSSIA AND BIDEN, GAS PRICES AT THE PUMP, PRAISING PUTIN: Quinnipiac, March 11-14
VP RATINGS: Politico/Morning Consult, March 11-14
U.S. ALLIES AND ENEMIES: The Economist/YouGov, March 12-15
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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