LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Surprise in Florida Dem Prez Primary – Court Pick – Florida, Arizona, Kentucky Senate – Nevada, Texas, Florida Governor

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, February 2, 2022

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 41%
Same as Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 38% (Monmouth) to 45% (Reuters). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (same as Friday), putting him 14 points net negative.

FLORIDA: PRESIDENT 2024 
Among voters statewide

General election in Florida

• Donald Trump (R) over Joe Biden (D): +3 (47-44)
• Ron DeSantis (R) over Joe Biden (D): +8 (52-44)

Democratic primary in Florida

• Hillary Clinton over Joe Biden: +3 (46-43) 

RON’S COMMENT: DeSantis does much better in a general election against Biden than does Trump (+8 vs. +3); both now live in the Sunshine State…. Here’s a shocker: Clinton beats Biden in a Florida Democratic presidential primary. In 2020, Biden easily won the state’s primary with 62% of the vote.

SENATE: 2024 
Among voters statewide

FLORIDA 

• Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Val Demings (D): +8 (49-41)

RON’S COMMENT: Rubio doesn’t quite make it to 50%, but he holds a clear lead over Democratic challenger Demings…. More bad news for Democrats in Florida: President Biden’s job rating in the state is a weak 39% approve/53% disapprove.
 
ARIZONA

• Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Mark Brnovich (R): +2 (49-47)
• Sen. Mark Kelly (D) over Doug Ducey (R): +3 (50-47)

RON’S COMMENT: Looks like Arizona will be another barn burner. Brnovich is the state AG. Ducey, who is not now a candidate for Senate, is the incumbent term-limited governor. Polling shows Ducey leading Brnovich in the GOP primary should he change his mind and get into the race.

KENTUCKY 

• Sen. Rand Paul (R) over Charles Booker (D): +16 (55-39)

RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Paul starts off his re-election run in good shape. He wins Republicans 89-5 and independents 54-39. Booker, a progressive Democrat, wins Democrats 73-22…. Also worth a look: 

• Andy Beshear is the incumbent Democratic governor of Kentucky, a conservative state, and his popularity remains strong. This poll has him at 60% approve/32% disapprove. A performance like that should lift him into the ranks of national ticket timber. Beshear’s gubernatorial term is up in 2023.

GOVERNOR: 2022
Among voters statewide

FLORIDA

• Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Charlie Crist (D): +6 (49-43)
• Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Nikki Fried (D): +11 (51-40)

COMMENT: DeSantis leads both Democrats seeking his job, although he’s not out of the woods yet. The race against Crist, a former Republican governor who is now running as a Democrat, is fairly close. DeSantis has a lot riding on November’s vote in Florida––both his re-election and a likely 2024 presidential bid…. Noteworthy:  

• Florida voters oppose teaching Critical Race Theory by a wide 53-33 margin. Independents oppose teaching CRT by 58-26.
• 73% of Florida voters believe the nation is in a mental health crisis.
• By a 49-38 margin, Florida voters say the state’s “more open pandemic policies” have helped the state’s economy rather than hurt it. Also, 52% favor the state ban on vaccine requirements.

TEXAS

• (Dallas Morning News) Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +11 (47-36-16)
• (Univ. of Houston) Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +5 (48-43-3)

RON’S COMMENT: Abbott leads O’Rourke by a clear 11 points in the Dallas Morning News statewide poll, although 16% of voters say they’d like to vote for someone else. Note that 13% of Democrats, 11% of Republicans and 29% of independents would like to vote for someone other than Abbott or O’Rourke…. The Univ. of Houston survey shows a much closer contest. It has Abbott winning Whites 57-34 and O’Rourke leading Hispanics 51-39, Blacks 77-13, Millennials/Gen Z 50-36 and college grads 47-45…. Ratings in Texas: 

• Gov. Abbott: 51% approve/45% disapprove. 
• Pres. Joe Biden: 41% approve/56% disapprove.
• Beto O’Rourke: 37% favorable/45% unfavorable.
• Ted Cruz: 44% favorable/45% unfavorable.
• John Cornyn: 39% favorable/28% unfavorable.
• Kamala Harris: 37% favorable/53% unfavorable.

NEVADA

• Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) over Joe Lombardo (R): +4 (52-48)
• Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) over Dean Heller (R): +8 (54-46)

RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Sisolak is posting a wider lead over former U.S. Sen. Heller than over Lombardo, Clark County’s sheriff (+8 vs. +4). Lombardo currently leads the Republican primary.

SUPREME COURT PICK 
Among voters nationwide

To fill the opening on the U.S. Supreme Court, do you think Joe Biden should….

• Consider all possible nominees: 76%
• Consider only nominees who are Black women, as he has pledged to do: 23%

RON’S COMMENT: This ABC News poll finds that more than three-fourths of Americans would rather Biden consider all possible Court nominees, and not just Black women. The poll also finds shows that majorities of both parties––54% of Democrats and 95% of Republicans––think Biden should consider all possible nominees…. Also: 

• A new Politico/Morning Consult poll finds that 38% of voters believe it’s “very” or “somewhat” important that Joe Biden picks a Supreme Court Justice who is a Black woman, while 48% believe it’s not important; 32% of Whites, 38% of Hispanics and 67% of Blacks say it’s important.
• The poll also finds that 65% of voters want Senators to base their votes to confirm a nominee on “whether the nominee is qualified to be appointed to the Supreme Court” as opposed to 20% who say Senators should base their votes on where they think “the nominee stands on political and social issues that might come before the Supreme Court.” 

UKRAINE POLICY  
Among adults nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling… the situation with Russia and Ukraine?

• Approve: 41%
• Disapprove: 56%

RON’S COMMENT: At this point, Biden’s approval rating on the Ukraine situation matches his overall average approval.

Would you support or oppose sending U.S. troops into Eastern Europe to try to discourage a Russian invasion of Ukraine?

• Support sending troops: 29%
• Oppose sending troops: 38%
• Don’t know: 32%

RON’S COMMENT: While more Americans oppose than support sending troops, nearly a third don’t know. Democrats are much more supportive of U.S. engagement (41% support, 29% oppose) than Republicans (28% support, 46% oppose).

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TEXAS: Dallas Morning News, Jan. 18-25; Univ. of Houston, Jan. 14-24
FLORIDA: USA Today/Suffolk, Jan. 26-29
KENTUCKY: Mason-Dixon, Jan. 19-22
NEVADA: Nevada Independent/OH Predictive, Jan. 19-26
ARIZONA: Data for Progress (D), Jan. 21-24
UKRAINE POLICY, SUPREME COURT PICK: ABC News/Ipsos, Jan. 28-29

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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