Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, November 23, 2021
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Same as Monday of last week
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 38% (Quinnipiac) to 44% (Reuters, Fox News, Politico). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as Monday of last week), putting him at 11 points net negative.
- The Quinnipiac poll shows how Biden’s hard negative rating towers over his hard positive: 46% strongly disapprove, 23% strongly approve. About nine months ago, it leaned the other way: 32% strongly disapprove, 38% strongly approve.
- Compared to six months ago in the Fox News poll, “approval of Biden is down 16 points on coronavirus, 15 points on the economy, and 7 points on immigration. Currently, 36 percent approve on the economy and 31 percent approve on immigration. On Biden’s best issue, the pandemic, 48 percent approve.”
FLORIDA: SENATOR 2022
Among voters statewide
Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Val Demings (D): +7 (51-44)
RON’S COMMENT: In his campaign for a third term, Rubio holds a clear lead over challenger Demings. Rubio receives 82% of Republicans, 19% of Democrats, 51% of independents, 58% of Whites, 14% of Blacks and 54% of Hispanics.
FLORIDA: GOVERNOR 2022
Among voters statewide
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Charlie Crist (D): +6 (51-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Against Democrat Crist, Republican incumbent DeSantis receives 81% of Republicans, 19% of Democrats, 52% of independents, 57% of Whites, 16% of Blacks and 51% of Hispanics…. To win the race, Democrats would need to cut DeSantis’ Democratic vote in half and raid his independent support…. In a race against Democrat Nikki Fried, DeSantis wins by 9 points.
TEXAS: GOVERNOR 2022
Among voters statewide
Matthew McConaughey (?) over Gov. Greg Abbott (R): +8 (43-35) Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +6 (45-39)
RON’S COMMENT: Actor McConaughey, who isn’t even an announced candidate and doesn’t have a certain party label, leads Republican incumbent Abbott by a sizable 8 points. Democrat O’Rourke, who is an announced candidate with a certain party label, loses to Abbott by 6 points. Other findings:
- Against O’Rourke, Abbott receives 81% of Republicans, 11% of Democrats, 37% of independents, 59% of Whites, 32% of Hispanics and 39% of parents.
- Against McConaughey, Abbott receives 62% of Republicans, 9% of Democrats, 28% of independents, 45% of Whites, 27% of Hispanics and 29% of parents.
- Abbott’s rating is 49% approve/41% disapprove/10% neither––lackluster, to be sure, but maybe good enough to survive re-election.
- O’Rourke’s rating is 37% favorable/43% unfavorable/11% neither––he will need to improve his favorability if he wants to have a chance at winning.
- President Biden’s rating in Texas is 42% approve/53% disapprove/6% neither.
- VP Kamala Harris’ rating in Texas is 37% approve/47% disapprove/12% neither.
- Sen. Ted Cruz’s rating is 44% approve/42% disapprove/neither 9%.
- Sen. John Cornyn’s rating is 30% approve/33% disapprove/neither 23%.
- 75% of Republicans, 67% of Democrats and 58% of independents intend to vote in the March primary.
- Lt. Gov. Democratic primary: Mike Collier over Matthew Dowd 35-20.
- AG Republican primary: Ken Paxton 46%, George P. Bush 32%, others 14%.
NEW YORK: GOVERNOR 2022
Among Democratic primary voters statewide
Gov. Kathy Hochul: 36%
Letitia James: 22%
Andrew Cuomo: 15%
Humane Williams: 7%
Thomas Suozzi: 6%
Bill de Blasio: 3%
Not sure: 11%
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Hochul maintains a lead in the Democratic primary. AG James is second and former Gov. Andrew Cuomo is third…. Among Democrats: Hochul’s personal rating is 60% favorable/20% unfavorable…. James is 60% favorable/23% unfavorable…. Cuomo is 46% favorable/52% unfavorable…. de Blasio is 34% favorable/60% unfavorable.
THANKSGIVING: WHAT’S IT ALL ABOUT?
by Ron Faucheux
Who was the first President to pardon a Thanksgiving turkey?
(See answer below)
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TEXAS: Dallas Morning News, Nov. 9-16
FLORIDA: St. Pete Polls, Nov. 18-19
NEW YORK: Data for Progress, Nov. 16-17
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
John F. Kennedy was first to pardon a turkey. However, Harry Truman was the first to receive a ceremonial turkey.
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