LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Climate Change – House Elections – Federal Spending Programs – Government Size – Inflation Blame

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, November 15, 2021

Same as Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on eight polls, ranging from 36% (Federalist/Susquehanna) to 46% (Politico, Reuters). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (up 1 from Monday), putting him at 11 points net negative.  

  • The Washington Post/ABC poll shows Biden’s rating on handling the pandemic is net negative: 45% approve/52% disapprove.

Among voters statewide

Donald Trump (R) over Joe Biden (D): +11 (51-40)
RON’S COMMENT: Before Trump, Iowa was a swing state. But in 2016, Trump won it by 9.5 points and then beat Biden by 8.2 points in 2020…. Biden does slightly better among Iowa Democrats (95%) than Trump does among Iowa Republicans (91%). Trump wins independents 45-37.  

  • Self-identified Republicans in Iowa were asked this question: “Would you say you feel more allegiance to the Republican Party or to Donald Trump?” 61% say they feel more allegiance to the party, 26% feel more allegiance to Trump and 9% say it’s equal.
  • Biden’s job rating in Iowa is negative overall, 33% approve/62% disapprove. By issue: 41% of Iowans approve of his handling of the pandemic, 32% approve of his handling of the economy, 24% approve of his handling of immigration and 22% approve of his handling of Afghanistan.

Among voters nationwide

Infrastructure: Do you support or oppose the federal government spending one trillion dollars on roads, bridges and other infrastructure?
Support: 63%
Oppose: 32%
RON’S COMMENT: 81% of Democrats, 46% of Republicans, 53% of independents support hard infrastructure spending; 68% of college grads and 70% of voters 65 and older agree.
Climate and social programs: Do you support or oppose the federal government spending about two trillion dollars to address climate change and to create or expand preschool, health care and other social programs?
Support: 54%
Oppose: 41%
RON’S COMMENT: 93% of Democrats, 24% of Republicans, 28% of independents support spending two trillion dollars to address climate change and to create or expand preschool, health care and other social programs…. Support is 9 points higher among women than men…. Pollsters continue to struggle in their effort to find accurate and unbiased wording of survey questions on this topic.

Among voters nationwide

Accomplishments: Biden has been president for about ten months. Would you say he has accomplished a great deal during that time, a good amount, not very much or little or nothing?
A great deal: 7%
A good amount: 26%
Not very much: 18%
Little or nothing: 48%
RON’S COMMENT: Only a third of the electorate says Biden has accomplished a great deal or a good amount––68% of Democrats, 12% of Republicans, 28% of independents agree…. Also: 

  • 32% of all registered voters and 64% of Democrats say Biden is keeping most of his promises. These numbers are worse than Trump, Obama or Clinton received.

Size of government: How concerned are you, if at all, that Biden will do too much to increase the size and role of government in U.S. society?
Very/somewhat concerned: 62%
Not so concerned/not concerned at all: 37%

RON’S COMMENT: A hefty majority (62%) is concerned that Biden’s program is increasing the size and role of government; 30% of Democrats, 87% of Republicans, 64% of independents agree…. Democrats need to be particularly concerned about independents.
Inflation blameHow much, if at all, do you blame Biden for the current rate of inflation, meaning rising prices?
A great deal/a good amount: 52%
Not much/not at all: 48%
RON’S COMMENT: 17% of Democrats, 81% of Republicans, 51% of independents blame Biden a great deal or a good amount…. Furthermore: 72% of voters rate the economy as either “not so good” or “poor”; even half of Democrats agree.

Among voters nationwide

Based on the latest Washington Post/ABC poll: 

  • 66% of voters think climate change is a serious problem and 32% say it’s not a serious problem. By party: 95% of Democrats, 39% of Republicans and 69% of independents say it’s a serious problem.
  • 45% of voters think climate change is an urgent problem and 48% say it’s a longer-term problem. By party: 75% of Democrats, 19% of Republicans and 42% of independents say it’s an urgent problem.
  • 69% think the federal government should regulate the “release of greenhouse gases from sources like power plants, cars and factories” to reduce global warming. By party: 90% of Democrats, 47% of Republicans and 73% of independents favor regulation.

RON’S COMMENT: Nearly two-thirds of voters see climate change as a “serious” problem, but less than half––45%––see it as an “urgent” problem. Most voters, including almost half of Republicans, think the federal government should regulate the release of greenhouse gases. 

Among voters nationwide

For whom would you vote/Would lean toward in your congressional district….
Republican candidate: 51%
Democratic candidate: 41%
RON’S COMMENT: The numbers are awful for Democrats, and they signal the possibility of big losses for them in next year’s midterm elections. But, neither party is doing that great in terms of being “in touch with the concerns of most people”: Only 37% of voters say the Republican Party is in touch and only 33% say the Democratic Party is in touch.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IOWA: Des Moines Register/Mediacom/Selzer, Nov. 7-10

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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