Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, November 2, 2021
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (IBD/TIPP) to 45% (WSJ/NBC). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (same as yesterday), keeping him 8 points net negative…. The NPR/PBS/Marist poll breaks down Biden’s approval rating by demographics:
- Democrats 84%, Republicans 6%, independents 39% approve of Biden
- Men 38%, women 49% approve
- White 38%, Black 71%, Latino 55% approve
- Gen Z/Millennials (18-40) 44%, Gen X (41-56) 43%, Boomers (57-75) 44%, Silent/Greatest (over 75) 52% approve
- White Evangelical Christians 17% approve
- Suburban/small city men 36%, suburban/small city women 52% approve
VIRGINIA: GOVERNOR 2021
Among voters
- (Research Co.) Glenn Youngkin (R) over Terry McAuliffe (D): +1 (48-47)
- (Echelon) Glenn Youngkin (R) over Terry McAuliffe (D): +3 (49-46)
- (Targoz) Terry McAuliffe (D) over Glenn Youngkin (R): +3 (50-47)
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s Election Day. Three new polls using varying methodologies show a close race, but with a slight edge for Youngkin…. The Echelon poll has Youngkin winning K-12 parents by 15 points and McAuliffe winning voters who are not K-12 parents by 1 point…. Final averages are little changed from yesterday:
- Average based on last seven polls: Youngkin (R) +1.7
- Average based on last six polls (without Fox News poll): Youngkin (R) +0.6
NEW JERSEY: GOVERNOR 2021
Among voters statewide
(Rutgers) Gov. Phil Murphy (D) over Jack Ciatterelli (R): +8 (50-42)
(Research Co.) Gov. Phil Murphy (D) over Jack Ciatterelli (R): +6 (50-44)
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s Election Day. The race appears to have tightened from where it was a month ago, but incumbent Murphy still has a clear lead.
- Average based on last five polls: Murphy +7.6.
TEXAS: GOVERNOR 2022
Among voters statewide
Two-way:
Gov. Greg Abbott (R): 43%
Beto O’Rourke (D): 42%
Three-way:
Gov. Greg Abbott (R): 40%
Beto O’Rourke (D): 37%
Matthew McConaughey (I): 9%
RON’S COMMENT: O’Rourke comes surprising close to incumbent Abbott in the two-way trial heat…. The poll’s sample has more Democrats than Republicans, 36-33, with 24% independents (“who generally lean Republican in Texas”) and 5% third party…. With McConaughey in the three-way race as an independent, Abbott drops 3 points and O’Rourke drops 5 points…. Abbott leads Whites 58-30. O’Rourke wins Blacks 76-10 and Hispanics 49-31. O’Rourke wins Catholic Hispanics 56-29…. McConaughey has not announced a candidacy or, for that matter, his party affiliation should he run.
- In the AG Republican primary, incumbent Ken Paxton leads with 54% followed by George P. Bush (son of Jeb, nephew of George W) with 18%. Two others get 6% total. That’s the widest lead we’ve seen so far.
- In the Lt. Gov. Democratic primary, Mike Collier leads Matthew Dowd 25-17.
BIDEN, TRUMP 2024 ELECTABILITY PERCEPTIONS
Among voters nationwide
BIDEN
[Among Democratic voters and Democratic leaning independents] Do you think Democrats have a better chance of winning the presidency in 2024 if Joe Biden is the party’s nominee, or if someone else is the party’s nominee?
Among Democrats:
Biden has better chance: 41%
Someone else has better chance: 41%
Among Democratic leaning independents:
Biden has better chance: 26%
Someone else has better chance: 51%
RON’S COMMENT: Only 41% of Democrats think their party has a better chance of winning the presidency in 2024 if Joe Biden is the nominee. Most Democratic leaning independents think someone else would have a better chance (51-26).
TRUMP
[Among Republican voters and Republican leaning independents] Do you think Republicans have a better chance of winning the presidency in 2024 if Donald Trump is the party’s nominee, or if someone else is the party’s nominee?
Among Republicans:
Trump has better chance: 57%
Someone else has better chance: 29%
Among Republican leaning independents:
Trump has better chance: 37%
Someone else has better chance: 47%
RON’S COMMENT: 57% of Republicans think their party have a better chance of winning the presidency in 2024 if Trump is the nominee. Most Republican leaning independents think someone else would have a better chance (47-37).
DIVIDED NATION, THREAT TO DEMOCRACY
Among voters nationwide
When thinking about the issues that divide the nation, do you think:
- There is a serious threat to the future of our democracy: 82%
- There is not a serious threat to the future of our democracy: 14%
RON’S COMMENT: The electorate overwhelmingly believes the issues that divide the nation are a serious threat to the future of our democracy. 79% of Democrats, 89% of Republicans and 80% of independents agree…. This poll also finds that 43% of voters see the Democratic Party as the bigger threat to democracy and 42% see the Republican Party as the bigger threat.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Since 1952, Virginia voted Republican 13 times and Democratic 5 times in presidential elections. Who was the last Republican presidential nominee to win Virginia?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
VIRGINIA: Research Co., Oct. 31-Nov. 1; Targoz, Oct. 26-Nov. 1; Echelon, Oct. 27-29 NEW JERSEY: Rutgers/Eagleton, Oct. 21-27; Research Co., Oct. 31-Nov. 1
TEXAS: Baker Institute/Rice University/Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation, Oct. 14-27
BIDEN, TRUMP 2024 ELECTABILITY, THREAT TO DEMOCRACY: NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist, Oct. 18-22
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
TRIVIA ANSWER
George W. Bush in 2004.
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