LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Vaccination and Relationships – Threats to U.S. – Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, New Jersey

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, September 23, 2021

Same as Monday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 43% (Gallup) to 47% (Politico). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (same as Monday), putting him 5 points net negative.

Among voters statewide

(VCU) Terry McAuliffe (D) over Glenn Youngkin (R): +9 (43-34)
(Univ. of Mary Wash.) Glenn Youngkin (R) over Terry McAuliffe (D): +5 (48-43-2)
RON’S COMMENT: Two polls with conflicting results––take your pick…. Some observers believe the VCU poll is underpolling Youngkin and has the undecided vote too high (“neither” and “don’t know” add up to 23%), while some believe the Univ. of Mary Washington poll is underpolling McAuliffe…. The Mary Washington poll is the first public poll showing Youngkin leading. It has the Republican up by 5 points among likely voters, but has Democrat McAuliffe up by 5 points among all registered voters. The poll finds McAuliffe’s lead in vote-rich, Democratic-leaning northern Virginia to be a slim 48-45, a major reason why Democratic operatives question the poll’s findings. On the other hand, the VCU poll has McAuliffe leading northern Virginia by a wide 56-23 margin…. Both polls began interviewing 16 days ago…. The four latest polls give McAuliffe an average lead of 2.8 points

  • In the Lt. Governor’s race, Winsome Sears (R) leads Hala Ayala (D) by 6 points in the Mary Washington poll, but Ayala leads the VCU poll by 3 points.
  • In the AG’s race, Jason Miyares (R) leads incumbent Mark Herring (D) by 4 points in the Mary Washington poll, but Herring leads the VCU poll by 6 points.

Among voters statewide

Gov. Phil Murphy (D) over Jack Ciatterelli (R): +13 (51-38)
RON’S COMMENT: New Jersey has a gubernatorial election Nov. 2 and Democratic incumbent Murphy is favored to win. Republican Ciatterelli is a former state assemblyman and second-place finisher in the 2017 GOP primary for governor. Murphy’s rating is 48% favorable/37% unfavorable, while Ciatterelli is 31% favorable/19% unfavorable.

Among voters statewide

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) over Abby Finkenauer(D): +18 (55-37)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Grassley, 88, posts a solid lead over Democratic challenger Finkenauer––and that’s good news for Republicans who have been concerned about this race. One caution: Finkenauer has much lower name ID than does seven-term senator Grassley, which means she still has room to grow…. Grassley has not formally announced for re-election…. This poll of Iowa voters also finds: 

  • President Biden’s job rating in the state is an awful 31% approve/62% disapprove. In 2020, Trump carried Iowa by 8 points (53-45).
  • Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) has a positive job rating of 53% approve/43% disapprove. Her best issue is the economy (57% approve).
  • Iowa sided with Democrats in six of seven presidential elections, 1992-2012. But that changed in 2016, when Trump won the state by over 9 points––a 15-point swing from 2012 when Obama won the state by 6 points.

Among voters statewide

James Craig (R) over Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D): +6 (50-44)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll, conducted by a Republican firm, Trafalgar Group, is the first poll we’ve seen showing Republican Craig, former police chief in Detroit, leading Democratic incumbent Whitmer. Of the two previous polls, one had Whitmer ahead by 1 point and other other had her up by 6…. Another pollster did a separate survey only in Detroit and finds Whitmer leading Craig 87-8 in the Democratic city, an indication that Craig, an African American Republican, may have little chance to peel off Black Democrats from Whitmer.

Among U.S. voters nationwide

How serious a threat do you think the following groups or countries pose to the United States? 
% = Immediate and serious OR somewhat serious threat

  • ISIS: 78%
  • Taliban: 75%
  • China: 75%
  • Iran: 71%
  • North Korea: 70%
  • Russia: 69%

RON’S COMMENT: By party–– 

  • 66% of Democrats see Iran as an “Immediate and serious” or “somewhat serious threat,” while 81% of Republicans do.
  • 76% of Democrats see ISIS as an “Immediate and serious” or “somewhat serious threat,” while 86% of Republicans do.
  • 75% of Democrats see Russia as an “Immediate and serious” or “somewhat serious threat,” while 66% of Republicans do.
  • 71% of Democrats see the Taliban as an “Immediate and serious” or “somewhat serious threat,” while 87% of Republicans do.
  • 68% of Democrats see China as an “Immediate and serious” or “somewhat serious threat,” while 83% of Republicans do.
  • 73% of Democrats see North Korea as an “Immediate and serious” or “somewhat serious threat,” while 76% of Republicans do.

Among voters nationwide

[Asked of those who have been vaccinated and know family or friends who have not been vaccinated] Have you stopped associating with any of your friends or family members because of their decision to not get vaccinated? 

  • Yes, stopped associating with unvaccinated: 29%
  • No, did not stop associating with unvaccinated: 71% 

RON’S COMMENT: 18% of Republicans, 37% of Democrats and 23% of independents say they have stopped associating with unvaccinated family members and friends.
FEELINGS ABOUT THE UNVACCINATED: Which of the following best describes how you feel about people who have decided not to get vaccinated?

  • I agree with their decision to not get vaccinated: 32% 
  • I disagree, but I understand their decision to not get vaccinated: 29% 
  • I strongly disagree and cannot understand their decision to not get vaccinated: 39% 

RON’S COMMENT: 15% of Republicans, 64% of Democrats and 39% of independents say they strongly disagree with the unvaccinated and cannot understand their decision to not get vaccinated.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
VIRGINIA: Univ. of Mary Washington, Sept. 7-15; VCU, Sept. 7-13
NEW JERSEY: Monmouth, Sept. 16-20
IOWA: Des Moines Register/Selzer, Sept. 12-15
MICHIGAN: Trafalgar (R), Sept. 13-15

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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