LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Crime – Favorable Ratings – Biden on Abortion, Healthcare, Jobs – Virginia

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, September 17, 2021

Same as Wednesday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 43% (Rasmussen) to 47% (Politico). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (same as Wednesday), putting him 6 points net negative.

Based on the latest count

Gov. Newsom (D) recall: 
No: 63.7%
Yes: 36.3%

Replacement candidates:
Larry A. Elder (R) 47.2%
Kevin Paffrath (D) 9.9%
Kevin L. Faulconer (R) 8.5%
Brandon M. Ross (D) 5.6%
John Cox (R) 4.4%
Others: 24.4%

NOTE: Keep in mind that 9.5 million votes were cast on the recall, but only 5.3 million votes were cast for replacement candidates––that’s because many Democrats voted against recalling Newsom and then left their ballots blank for a replacement candidate. Therefore, while Elder received 47.2% of the replacement candidate vote, he received only 26% of the total votes cast in the recall election. 

Among voters statewide

Terry McAuliffe (D) over Glenn Youngkin (R): +4 (49-45-2)
RON’S COMMENT: McAuliffe maintains a modest lead, but has struggled to break the 50% mark. The last time he ran for governor and won, the race ended closer than polling had suggested…. Poll internals: 

  • Gender: McAuliffe wins women 53-41 and Youngkin wins men 48-45.
  • Race: McAuliffe wins Hispanics 56-35, Blacks 63-26 and Asians 75-25%. Youngkin wins Whites 51-44…. Youngkin’s 26% of the Black vote has raised eyebrows among Democratic operatives who expect McAuliffe to do much better than the 63-26 split this poll indicates.
  • Party: Youngkin wins Republicans 82-15 and McAuliffe wins Democrats 90-6. Independents lean heavily to Youngkin, 54-35.
  • In the AG race, Democratic incumbent Mark Herring leads Republican Jason Miyares 47-41. 
  • On critical race theory: 47% of Virginia’s voters support banning the teaching of CRT in public schools, while 36% do not support such a ban.

Among voters nationwide

% = Favorable/Unfavorable

  • Joe Biden: 45%/51% 
  • Kamala Harris: 44%/50% 
  • Donald Trump: 40%/57%
  • Barack Obama: 52%/46%
  • Chuck Schumer: 33%/47% 
  • Mitch McConnell: 20%/65% 
  • Nancy Pelosi: 38%/55% 
  • Kevin McCarthy: 24%/45%
  • Gavin Newsom: 30%/38%
  • Ron DeSantis: 32%/38%
  • Greg Abbott: 29%/34%
  • The Democratic Party: 42%/52% 
  • The Republican Party: 33%/63% 
  • The people who took over the Capitol on Jan. 6: 17%/69%

RON’S COMMENT: The only politician with a net positive rating is Obama, 52-46. The one with the highest negative rating is McConnell (65%)…. Note that Biden’s personal favorability ratings in this poll are exactly the same as Biden’s average job ratings today (see above)…. Internals: 

  • Biden’s favorable rating is 85% among Democrats, 12% among Republicans and 36% among independents….. Overall, Biden’s hard negative is much bigger than his hard positive (39% vs. 25%).
  • Harris’ favorable rating is 84% among Democrats, 13% among Republicans and 31% among independents…. Overall, Harris’ hard negative is much bigger than her hard positive (39% vs. 22%).
  • Trump’s favorable rating is 9% among Democrats, 81% among Republicans and 40% among independents…. Overall, Trump’s hard negative is much bigger than his hard positive (46% vs. 25%). 
  • 25% of Republicans, 11% of Democrats and 18% of independents have a favorable view of the people who took over the Capitol on Jan. 6.

Among voters nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling these specific issues? 

Approve: 35%
Disapprove: 46%
Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 43%
Jobs and the economy 
Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 47%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows Biden’s approval rating on abortion is lowest of these three issues. Biden’s approval rating is 61% among Democrats, 13% among Republicans and 23% among independents on abortion…. On healthcare and jobs, two issues Democrats usually need to do well on, the president’s ratings are lackluster, in the mid-40s.

Among voters nationwide

How important [is the crime issue] to you? 
Very important: 60%
Somewhat important: 31%
Not very important/unimportant: 11%
RON’S COMMENT: Voters who say crime is a “very important” issue: 51% of Democrats, 72% of Republicans, 59% of independents, 57% of men, 59% of women, 66% of Blacks, 58% of Hispanics, 61% of White men without college degrees, 53% of White men with college degrees, 68% of White women without college degrees and 44% of White women with college degrees.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
VIRGINIA: Emerson College/Nexstar Media, Sept. 13-14

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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