LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Negative Economic Perceptions – Wisconsin, North Carolina Primaries – Recall Polling

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, September 13, 2021

Same as Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 43% (Economist) to 47% (Reuters). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (+1 since Friday), making him 6 points net negative. 

  • Note about the recent CNN poll: CNN recently announced it has altered its polling methodology. Its latest poll, released Friday, showed President Biden with 52% job approval, which is higher than other polls have been finding. We did not include this data point in our averages because the survey was conducted during a lengthy interviewing period between Aug. 3 and Sept. 7, a time when events were shifting quickly. CNN survey interviewing began 12 days before Kabul fell on August 15 and was underway for 23 days before the killing of 13 U.S. service members occurred on Aug. 26. 

Among voters statewide

% = For recall/Against recall
40%/60% (anti-recall +20)

RON’S COMMENT: Polls keep showing the anti-recall vote increasing…. For replacement candidates, this Emerson College/Nexstar Mediapoll has Larry Elder (R) with 30%, John Drake (D) 6%, Kevin Paffrath (D) 6%, Kevin Faulconer (R) 4% and John Cox (R) 3%. The two Democrats are very young; Drake is 20 and Paffrath is 29 …. If Newsom is not recalled, the replacement race doesn’t matter.

Among Democratic primary voters

Democratic primary
Mandela Barnes: 37%
Tom Nelson: 8%
Sarah Godlewski: 7%
Alex Lasry: 5%
Gillian Battino: 1%
Chantia Lewis: 1%
Steven Olikara: 1%
Undecided: 38%

RON’S COMMENT: This poll was conducted for Barnes’ campaign and shows him holding a lead in the Democratic primary for the Senate seat now held by Republican incumbent Ron Johnson. Barnes is the state’s lieutenant governor. Nelson is a local county executive and former state senate majority leader; he’s also run for Congress and lieutenant governor. Godlewski is state treasurer.

Among Democratic primary voters

Democratic primary
Cheri Beasley: 33%
Jeff Jackson: 24%
Undecided: 43%
RON’S COMMENT: Beasley is chief justice of the state Supreme Court and Jackson is a state senator. They’re vying for the Democratic nomination for the seat now held by retiring Republican Sen. Richard Burr…. Republican candidates include former governor Pat McCrory and Trump-endorsed Ted Budd, a U.S. Representative since 2017.

Among voters nationwide

How would you describe the current state of the American economy? 
Excellent/good: 22%
Fair/poor: 73%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows considerable economic discontent. Interestingly, only 37% of Biden voters and 8% of Trump voters say the economy is excellent or good. 

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
CALIFORNIA: Emerson College/Nexstar Media, Sept. 10-11
NORTH CAROLINA: Public Policy Polling (D), Aug. 31-Sept. 1
WISCONSIN: Clarity Campaign Labs (D), Aug. 28-30
ECONOMY: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 4-7

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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