LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Abortion – Boston – Recall – Trudeau in Canada

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, September 9, 2021

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as Tuesday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 43% (The Economist) to 47% (IBD/TIPP). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 49% today (-1 from Tuesday).

BOSTON: MAYOR 2021
Among voters citywide

Michelle Wu: 31% 
Kim Janey: 20% 
Annissa George: 19%
Andrea Campbell: 18%
Others/undecided: 12%
 
RON’S COMMENT: Janey is City Council President and Acting Mayor of Boston; she took over the job when former Mayor Marty Walsh went into Biden’s cabinet…. Wu, a member of the City Council, is running first. She has a personal rating of 69% favorable/14% unfavorable…. George and Campbell are also City Council members…. The election is November 2.

CALIFORNIA RECALL
Among voters statewide

% = Vote for recall/Vote against recall
41%/58% (anti-recall +17)

RON’S COMMENT: This is the fourth poll in a row showing the recall of Gov. Newsom losing by a substantial margin. Also: 

• The top four issues hurting Newsom the most are his handling of pandemic restrictions, homelessness, business closures and spending decisions.
• 33% of voters say they’ve already voted, 32% say they will vote by mail, 17% will vote by drop box and 16% will vote on election day.
• Replacement candidates: This Suffolk Univ. poll has Republican Larry Elder running first with 39%, and Kevin Paffrath, a Democrat, with 5%. Republican Kevin Faulconer also has 5% and Republican John Cox has 4%. Republican Caitlyn Jenner, by the way, is polling less than 1%. If Newsom is not recalled, the replacement race doesn’t matter.
• 44% of voters say they will not vote for a replacement candidate, leaving the ballot blank. 

ABORTION
Among voters nationwide

Texas law: This past week, the Texas State Legislature passed a law banning abortions after 6 weeks of pregnancy, and allowing people to sue healthcare providers facilitating abortions. Do you approve or disapprove of this law?
 
Approve of the Texas Law : 36%
Disapprove of the Texas Law: 51%
 
RON’S COMMENT: In the latest poll from The Economist, 39% of men, 33% of women, 15% of Democrats, 69% of Republicans and 36% of independents approve of the Texas law.
 
Roe: As you may know, the 1973 Supreme Court Case Roe v. Wade established a woman’s constitutional right to have an abortion. Would you like to see the Supreme Court overturn its Roe v. Wade decision, or not? 

• Yes, would like to see Roe v. Wade overturned: 28% 
• No, would not like to see Roe v. Wade overturned (maintain abortion rights in all 50 states): 50% 
• Not sure: 22% 

RON’S COMMENT: 31% of men, 25% of women, 11% of Democrats, 56% of Republicans and 29% of independents favor overturning Roe…. 49% of men, 51% of women, 77% of Democrats, 24% of Republicans and 48% of independents oppose overturning Roe…. Note that a large segment of the electorate (22%) is not sure.
 
Overall viewpoint: When do you think abortion should be legal? 

• Abortion should always be legal. There should be no restrictions on abortion: 31%
• Abortion should be legal, but with some restrictions (such as for minors or late-term abortions): 29%
• Abortion should only be legal in special circumstances, such as when the life of the mother is in danger: 27%
• Abortion should be illegal. It should never be allowed: 13%

RON’S COMMENT: Based on this poll from The Economist, 31% of voters think abortion should always be legal, 13% think it should always be illegal and the rest are split between legal with some restrictions and only legal in special circumstances such as when the life of the mother is in danger…. By party: 

• 50% of Democrats think abortion should always be legal and 6% think it should always be illegal.
• 9% of Republicans think abortion should always be legal and 24% think it should always be illegal.
• 26% of independents think abortion should always be legal and 11% think it should always be illegal.
• 84% of Democrats think abortion should always be legal OR should be legal with restrictions.
• 68% of Republicans think abortion should always be illegal OR should only be legal in special circumstances, such as when the life of the mother is in danger.

CANADIAN FEDERAL ELECTION: 2021
Among voters nationwide in Canada

Average of three most recent polls:
Conservative/Erin O’Toole: 33.5%
Liberal/Justin Trudeau: 31.1%
New Democratic/Jagmeet Singh: 19.4%
People’s/Maxime Bernier: 7.1%
Bloc Quebecois/Yves-Francois Blanchet: 4.8%
Green/Annamie Paul: 3.3%
 
RON’S COMMENT: The election is Sept. 20. Current polls show Conservatives slightly ahead of the Liberals, the party of current Prime Minister Trudeau. Liberals now have 157 seats and Conservatives have 121 seats.

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
ABORTION: The Economist/YouGov, SEPT. 4-7
BOSTON: Boston Globe/Suffolk Univ., Sept. 2-4
CALIFORNIA: Suffolk Univ., Sept. 6-7

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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