LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Biden’s Rating Slips – New Virginia, New Jersey Polls

Your Daily Polling Update for Saturday, August 21, 2021

Down 2 points from Wednesday

RON’S COMMENT: President Biden’s job rating is now clearly underwater, 46-50…. Today’s average is based on three polls, ranging from 46% (Reuters, Rasmussen) to 47% (Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 50% today (up 1 from Wednesday).

Among voters statewide

(VCU) Terry McAuliffe (D) over Glenn Youngkin (R): +3 (40-37)
(Roanoke College) Terry McAuliffe (D) over Glenn Youngkin (R): +8 (46-38)
RON’S COMMENT: The average of the last four polls shows McAuliffe ahead by 4.5 points…. Today’s VCU poll indicates a fairly tight race, but the Roanoke College poll gives McAuliffe a wider lead. Both surveys were conducted about the same time…. The VCU poll finds that:

  • For lieutenant governor, Democrat Hala Ayala leads Republican Winsome Sears 39-31. Both are women of color.
  • Incumbent attorney general Mark Herring (D) leads Republican Jason Miyares 41-30.
  • McAuliffe has a sizable lead in Northern Virginia (51% to 24%) while Youngkin leads in the west (52% to 32%). Voters are split in the south central region, with 34% supporting Youngkin and 32% supporting McAuliffe, and in Tidewater, with 42% supporting McAuliffe and 37% supporting Youngkin.

Excerpts from the Roanoke College poll report:

  • Likely voters see the economy (26%) and COVID (9%) as the most important issues in the election ahead of race relations (7%), education (7%) and health care (6%).  
  • McAuliffe’s favorable rating is 44% while his unfavorable is 32%. Youngkin is at 27%/21% favorable/unfavorable. 
  • Voters prefer a candidate with governmental experience (48%) over one with business experience (38%), and they are much more likely to think that policy in the Commonwealth has been moving too far in the liberal direction (41%) than in the conservative direction (6%).  
  •  48% approve of the way President Biden is handling his job, while 43% disapprove. Biden’s disapproval has been rising from 30% in February to 39% in May and 43% in August. Keep in mind that many of the poll interviews were completed before the fall of Kabul.
  • Job approval for Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam (D) sits at 52%, with 38% disapproving.

Among voters statewide

Gov. Phil Murphy (D) over Jack Ciatterelli (R): +16 (52-36)
RON’S COMMENT: New Jersey has a gubernatorial election Nov. 2 and the Democratic incumbent maintains a solid lead in the polls over Republican challenger Ciatterelli, a former state assemblyman and the second-place finisher in the 2017 GOP primary for governor.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
VIRGINIA: Roanoke College Poll/ Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, Aug. 3-17; VCU, Aug. 4-15
NEW JERSEY: Monmouth, Aug. 11-16

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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