LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Should Biden, Trump Run in 2024? – House Ballot – Jan. 6 – Georgia Senate – Endorsements – Biden and the Economy

Your Daily Polling Update for Saturday, August 7, 2021

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 49%
Same as Thursday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 47% (Quinnipiac) to 52% (Politico). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 46% today (same as Thursday)…. When assessing Biden’s approval rating, keep in mind that he received 51.3% of the popular vote in 2020.

GEORGIA: SENATE 2022
Among voters statewide

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Kelly Loeffler (R): +3 (47-44)
Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Herschel Walker: +2 (48-46)
Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Gary Black (R): +8 (46-38)

RON’S COMMENT: Democratic incumbent Warnock has his hands full as he moves toward a re-election bid, according to this poll taken by a Democratic-oriented polling firm…. Both Loeffler and Walker run close, although Loeffler, who served a stint in the Senate as an appointee, has a lopsidedly negative personal rating. Black is largely unknown statewide and has room to grow…. Among all voters:

  • Biden’s job rating in Georgia is 46% approve/48% disapprove.
  • Trump’s personal rating in Georgia is 43% favorable/48% unfavorable.
  • Warnock’s job rating is 43% approve/42% disapprove.
  • Loeffler’s personal rating is 28% favorable/47% unfavorable.
  • Walker’s personal rating is 41% favorable/28% unfavorable.
  • Black’s personal rating is 15% favorable/15% unfavorable.

SHOULD BIDEN, TRUMP RUN IN 2024?
Among voters nationwide

If Donald Trump runs for president in 2024, do you think that would be good for the country or bad for the country?
 
Good: 34%
Bad: 59%
Don’t know: 7%
 
RON’S COMMENT: 21% of Republicans, 95% of Democrats and 53% of independents say it would be bad for the country if Trump runs again. 
 
If Joe Biden runs for president in 2024, do you think that would be good for the country or bad for the country?
 
Good: 37%
Bad: 49%
Don’t know: 13%
 
RON’S COMMENT: 88% of Republicans, 15% of Democrats and 47% of independents say it would be bad for the country if Biden runs again.

TRUMP, BIDEN ENDORSEMENT IMPACT
Among voters nationwide

If Donald Trump endorses a political candidate for office, does that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely, or doesn’t it make a difference?
 
More likely: 21%
Less likely: 42%
No difference: 35%
 
RON’S COMMENT: Trump’s endorsement is two-to-one net negative among all voters…. Among Republicans, Trump’s endorsement has a positive impact of 54% and a negative impact of 6%. Among  independents, his endorsement has a positive impact of 14% and a negative impact of 37%.
 
If Joe Biden endorses a political candidate for office, does that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely, or doesn’t it make a difference?
 
More likely: 16%
Less likely: 29%
No difference: 53%
 
RON’S COMMENT: A majority of voters (53%) say Biden’s endorsement would make no difference to them…. Among Democrats, Biden’s endorsement has a positive impact of 42% and a negative impact of 3%. Among independents, his endorsement has a positive impact of 11% and a negative impact of 25%.

U.S. HOUSE: 2022 ELECTION
Among voters nationwide

If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?
 
Democratic Party: 45%
Republican Party: 44%
 
RON’S COMMENT: The Democratic advantage in House races has dwindled in the Quinnipiac poll. In late February, Democrats led Republicans 53-38. In late May, Democrats led 50-41. Now, it’s down to a 1-point gap.

BIDEN AND THE ECONOMY
Among voters nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling the economy?
 
Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 50%
 
RON’S COMMENT: Another unfavorable trend line for Democrats––this poll in April showed Biden’s approval on the economy was 50-44. Since then, his approval has slipped 5 points…. By party: 7% of Republicans, 88% of Democrats and 41% of independents now approve of the president’s handling of the economy. On questions like this, always watch the independents.

JANUARY 6
Among voters nationwide

Which comes closer to your point of view: the storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6th was an attack on democracy that should never be forgotten, or too much is being made of the storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6th and it is time to move on?
 
Never be forgotten: 57%
Time to move on: 38%
 
RON’S COMMENT: A solid majority of voters say storming the U.S. Capitol on January 6th was an attack on democracy that should never be forgotten––in agreement are 17% of Republicans, 94% of Democrats and 57% of independents. Also note: 75% of Republicans disagree; they say it’s time to move on.

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
GEORGIA: PPP (D), Aug. 4-5
JAN. 6, SHOULD BIDEN, TRUMP RUN IN 2024?, U.S. HOUSE: 2022 ELECTION, TRUMP, BIDEN ENDORSEMENT IMPACT: Quinnipiac, July 27-Aug. 2

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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