LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Cuomo – Newsom – Biden Slips – Pandemic Polling: Mandates, Risks, Guidelines

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, August 5, 2021

Down 2 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: A new round of polling shows Biden slipping below 50%. Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 47% (Quinnipiac) to 52% (Politico). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 46% today (+3 from yesterday).

Among New York voters statewide

Illegal or unethical: New York State Attorney General Letitia James announced today that an independent investigation finds that Governor Cuomo sexually harassed multiple women, including state employees. Governor Cuomo has denied the findings of the Attorney General’s report. Based on what you ́ve read or heard, do you think Governor Cuomo:
Has done something illegal: 47% 
Has done something unethical, but not illegal: 32%
Has done nothing wrong: 7% 
RON’S COMMENT: Of New York state voters, 32% of Democrats, 61% of Republicans and 61% of independents think Cuomo did something illegal. An additional 42% of Democrats, 25% of Republicans and 21% of independents think Cuomo did something unethical, but not illegal.
ResignDo you think Andrew Cuomo should resign as governor or do you think he should serve out the rest of his term?
Resign as governor: 63%
Serve out rest of his term: 29%
RON’S COMMENT: Majorities of each party category want Cuomo to resign: 52% of New York Democrats, 77% of Republicans and 72% of independents think he should resign as governor. It should be noted that only 41% of his fellow Democrats want the governor to serve out the rest of his term…. Interesting: 64% of men and 55% of women want him to resign.
Impeach and removeIf Governor Cuomo does not resign, do you think the New York State Legislature should or should not impeach him?
Should impeach him: 59%
Should not impeach him: 28%
RON’S COMMENT: 48% of New York Democrats, 80% of Republicans and 67% of independents think the State Legislature should impeach Cuomo if he doesn’t resign. While the percentage of Democrats who want him impeached dips below 50%, there are still more Democrats who favor impeachment (48%) than oppose it (39%)…. By gender: 66% of men and 53% of women think he should be impeached.

Among voters statewide

RECALL: Voters will be asked two separate questions in the recall election. The first will ask if Newsom should or should not be recalled. A yes vote means you want to remove Newsom as Governor. A no vote means you want Newsom to remain Governor. 
Yes, remove Newsom as governor: 51%
No, do not remove Newsom as governor: 40%
RON’S COMMENT: If this KABC/KGTV/SurveyUSA poll is accurate, it is devastating news for Newsom. It shows for the first time a majority of “likely voters” favoring recall. By party: 23% of Democrats, 84% of Republicans and 50% of independents favor Newsom’s removal…. It should be mentioned that the actual ballot language will read: “Shall Gavin Newsom be recalled (removed) from the office of Governor? Yes or No.”
Kevin Paffrath (D): 27%
Larry Elder (R): 23%
John Cox (R): 10%
Kevin Falconer (R): 5%
Caitlyn Jenner (R): 4%
Doug Ose (R): 4%
Kevin Kiley (R): 3%
Someone else: 5%
Undecided: 20%
RON’S COMMENT: Uh oh! What’s going on here? This poll shows Democrats moving to Paffrath, who has not polled much in previous surveys. Paffrath receives 58% of Democrats, 1% of Republicans and 19% of independents. Elder, the top running Republican, receives 2% of Democrats, 42% of Republicans and 27% of independents…. Paffrath is a 29-year-old YouTuber and real estate broker who was born in Germany. His YouTube channel on real estate and finance has 1.7 million subscribers…. The names of 46 replacement candidates are on the ballot.

Among voters nationwide 

Vaccine Risk: Which do you think is a greater risk: possibly contracting COVID-19, or possibly having a bad reaction to the COVID-19 vaccine? 
Possibly contracting virus: 65%
Possibly having a bad reaction to the vaccine: 35%
RON’S COMMENT: By demographic–– 

  • 52% of Republicans, 79% of Democrats and 59% of independents see possibly contracting the virus as the bigger risk.
  • 48% of Republicans, 21% of Democrats and 41% of independents see possibly having a bad reaction to the vaccine as the bigger risk. 
  • 40% of Blacks, 36% of Hispanics, 43% of White men without college degrees, 30% of White men with college degrees, 43% of White women without college degrees, 27% of White women with college degrees see possibly having a bad reaction to the vaccine as the bigger risk

Masks: In the past seven days, how often have you worn a mask on your face when outside your home
Always/most of the time: 47%
Some of the time: 26%
Never: 27%
RON’S COMMENT: 27% of Republicans, 69% of Democrats and 43% of independents say they’ve worn a mask “always” or “most of the time” outside their home the past seven days. Keep in mind: This is what people say they did, which may not be the same as what they actually did.
Rules for federal employees: Do you approve or disapprove of Joe Biden’s plan to require all federal employees and federal contractors to follow more strict rules about mask wearing and social distancing and to also be subject to more rigorous COVID-19 testing procedures unless they can show proof of vaccination? 
Approve: 59%
Disapprove: 34%
RON’S COMMENT: 29% of Republicans, 83% of Democrats and 56% of independents approve.
Mandatory vaccinationsDo you think the following groups of people should or should not be required to be vaccinated against COVID-19?
% = Should be required/Should not be required

  • Federal employees: 59%/27% 
  • College students: 57%/31% 
  • Teachers: 63%/27% 
  • Medical personnel: 66%/25% 
  • Members of the U.S. Congress: 62%/27%
  • Convicted prisoners: 58%/28%
  • People in jail awaiting trial: 55%/30%
  • Prison Guards: 63%/26% 
  • Police officers: 62%/27% 
  • Members of the U.S. military: 61%/27% 

RON’S COMMENT: Solid majorities of voters nationwide believe these groups should be mandated to get vaccinated.
Delta Variant: A variant of the COVID-19 virus known as the Delta variant, first identified in India, is spreading rapidly in some regions, and now makes up the majority of COVID-19 cases in the United States. Taking into consideration both your risk of contracting it and the seriousness of the illness, how worried are you personally about experiencing this new variant? 
Very/somewhat worried: 57%
Not too worried/not worried at all: 43%
RON’S COMMENT: 36% of Republicans, 80% of Democrats and 55% of independents say they’re very or somewhat worried about the Delta Variant.
CDC GuidelinesThe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced last Tuesday that all adults, including the fully vaccinated, living in areas with high rates of coronavirus transmission should wear masks when they are indoors in public places. Additionally, face masks should be worn by all teachers, staff, students, and visitors in all K-12 schools. Do you approve or disapprove of this decision
Approve: 62%
Disapprove: 33%
RON’S COMMENT: 36% of Republicans, 88% of Democrats and 62% of independents approve of the guidelines. 
Pandemic EndIn your opinion, when do you think the COVID-19 pandemic will finally end?
Already ended: 9%
Before the end of 2021: 11%
In 2022: 26%
After 2022: 34%
Never: 20%
RON’S COMMENT: A majority of voters think the pandemic will last for at least another year and a half. One out of five voters believe the pandemic will never end

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
CUOMO: Marist Poll, Aug. 3
Pandemic Update: The Economist/YouGov, July 31-Aug. 3

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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