LUNCHTIME POLITICS: DeSantis in Florida – Wisconsin Senate – Atlanta Mayor – Recall Tightens – Biden’s Policies – Right Direction – Johnson, Macron

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, August 4, 2021

Down 1 from last week

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 48% (CNBC, Rasmussen) to 57% (IBD/Tipp). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 43% today (-1 from last week)…. The Harvard-Harris poll shows Biden’s job approval taking a dive, going from 62% in June to 52% now.

Among voters statewide

Charlie Crist (D) over Gov. Ron DeSantis (R): +1 (45-44) 
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Nikki Fried (D): +3 (45-42)
RON’S COMMENT: Pundits have been so busy talking about DeSantis running for president in 2024 that they’ve overlooked his re-election race for governor in 2022. This poll indicates the Florida race may not be such a pushover for the GOP incumbent. DeSantis runs about even with Crist, a former Republican governor who is now a Democrat, and only slightly ahead of Fried, the state’s Agriculture Commissioner. More: 

  • DeSantis’ job rating is a lackluster 44% approve/48% not approve.
  • DeSantis opposes mandating masks for children in school, but this poll shows that 62% of voters disagree with him. 66% of independents, 39% of Republicans and 84% of Democrats think masks should be required for children in school.

Among voters statewide

Recall Gov. Newsom: 46%
Keep Gov. Newsom: 48%
Undecided: 6%
RON’S COMMENT: Democratic Gov. Newsom’s lead in the recall vote has tightened from 5 points two weeks ago to a slim 2 points now. From the Nexstar/Emerson College poll report: 

  • Voters without a college degree are more in favor of the recall (54% recall/39% keep) than those with a college degree (36% recall/59% keep). 
  • Hispanics favor recall (54% recall/41% keep), while Whites are split (48% recall/49% keep). Most Blacks (41% recall/57% keep) and Asians(30% recall/49% keep) favor keeping Newsom as governor.
  • Majorities of Republicans (80% recall/16% keep) and Independents(54% recall/34% keep) are in favor of the recall. Democrats favor keeping Newsom, but almost a quarter plan to vote to recall the Governor (23% recall/73% keep). If this is accurate, it’s a major danger sign for the embattled incumbent.
  • Men are split (47% recall/47% keep), while women are more in favor of keeping Newsom (44% recall/51% keep).

Larry Elder (R): 23%
John Cox (R): 7%
Caitlyn Jenner (R): 7%
Kevin Kiley (R): 5%
Kevin Falconer (R): 4%
Kevin Paffrath (D): 1%
Someone else: 14%
Undecided: 40%
RON’S COMMENT: Elder’s vote is going up, he’s gained 7 points in this poll over the past two weeks. He’s now getting 44% of Republicans and 29% of independents…. Notable is the high undecided vote (mostly Democrats), how they break is hard to predict. Bottom line: The outcome now depends on who turns out and votes on Election Day (Sept. 14)…. There is scuttlebutt that some of the Republicans now running may throw their support to Elder if it looks like he can win and they can’t. But when the undecided is this large, there is plenty of room for maneuver and mischief––so who knows?…. Newsom’s job rating is 49% approve/42% disapprove, that’s slightly down from 48%/43% two weeks ago.

Among Democratic primary voters statewide

Mandela Barnes: 39%
Chris Larson: 15%
Gillian Battino: 5%
Alex Lasry: 4%
Chantia Lewis: 3%
Sarah Godlewski: 3%
Tom Nelson: 2%
Undecided: 29%

RON’S COMMENT: This is the primary race to pick a Democrat to run for the Senate seat now held by GOP incumbent Ron Johnson… Democratic primary frontrunner Barnes is the incumbent lieutenant governor…. Larson withdrewyesterday as a candidate and endorsed Barnes…. Lasry is the Milwaukee Bucks’ senior VP…. If Johnson keeps his two-term limit pledge and does not run again, possible Republican candidates include U.S. Reps. Sean Duffy, Mike Gallagher and Bryan Steil.

Among voters citywide

Kasim Reed: 17%
Felicia Moore: 10%
Walter Reeves: 6%
Sharon Gay: 5%
Antonio Brown: 5%
Alex Barrella: 5%
Others: 12%
Undecided: 39%
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Keisha Lance Bottoms is not seeking re-election and nobody running hits 20% in this poll. Even though her predecessor, former two-term mayor Kasim Reed, is now running first, his vote percentage (17%) is lackluster given his strong name recognition. The undecided vote remains high, which means last-minute shifts are possible. City Council President Felicia Moore is second. Reed leads Moore among Blacks 23-10 and Moore leads Reed among Whites 10-7…. 77% of likely voters say crime is a major factor in their vote and Reed leads by 6 points among these voters…. The election is November 2 and a runoff, if needed, will be held Nov. 30.

Among voters nationwide

Would you say things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track? 
Right direction: 38%
Wrong track: 56%
RON’S COMMENT: 73% of Democrats, 8% of Republicans, 27% of independents say right direction. Note that independents are closer to Republicans than Democrats on this question.

Among voters nationwide

How much have each of the following groups benefited from President Biden’s policies so far––Have they benefited a lot, a little, or not at all? 
% = Benefit a lot/A little/Not at all
Middle class families: 21%/41%/33%
Wealthy families: 22%/30%/35%
Poor families: 31%/35%/29%
RON’S COMMENT: By party–– 

  • 69% of Democrats, 41% of Republicans, 53% of independents say Biden’s policies benefit middle class families either “a lot” or “a little.”
  • 60% of Democrats, 49% of Republicans, 47% of independents say Biden’s policies benefit wealthy families either “a lot” or “a little.”
  • 89% of Democrats, 50% of Republicans, 59% of independents say Biden’s policies benefit poor families either “a lot” or “a little.”

Among voters in France

French President Emmanuel Macron job approval rating 
(average of last three national polls):
RON’S COMMENT: Elected president of France in 2017, the 43-year old Macron faces voters again in 2022…. He started his term with a 62% approval rating and it fell to 25% at the end of November 2018. During the pandemic, it peaked at 50%. It now averages 41%.

Among voters in UK

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson job approval rating
(average of last three national polls):
RON’S COMMENT: Johnson’s average rating at the beginning of 2021 was 38% and at the beginning of 2020 it was 43%. He’s now at 36%.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
CALIFORNIA: Emerson College/Nexstar, July 30-Aug. 1
FLORIDA: St. Pete Polls, Aug. 2-3
WISCONSIN: MilwaukeeWorks/Remington, July 27-29
ATLANTA: SurveyUSA, July 20-25

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

Follow here to get the latest updates on the Lunchtime Politics.

Be the first to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.