LUNCHTIME POLITICS: California, Wisconsin, New Mexico, New Hampshire – Inflation Blame – Voter Interest

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, July 28, 2021

Up 1 from last Thursday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 47% (Rasmussen) to 58% (The  Hill/HarrisX). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 44% today (same as last Thursday).

Among voters statewide

RECALL: In the recall election, voters will first be asked to vote Yes or No on the question of whether to remove Governor Gavin Newsom from office. If the recall election of Governor Newsom were being held today, how would you vote? 
Among total registered voters:
Yes, recall: 36%
Don’t recall: 51%
Among most likely voters:
Yes, recall: 47%
Don’t recall: 50%
RON’S COMMENT: Looks like voter turnout in the Sept. 14 recall election is the ballgame. This new UC Berkeley/LA Times poll shows the recall vote leans only 3 points in favor of keeping Gov. Newsom among the most likely voters. But, the margin is 15 points among all registered voters…. A prior poll conducted a few days earlier, from Emerson College, showed 43% of likely voters favored recall and 48% opposed it…. According to the new UC Berkeley/LA Times poll:  

  • 91% of Democrats most likely to vote intend to vote against recall, while 95% of Republicans and 46% of independents favor recall. 
  • More men than women favor recall (53% vs. 42%). 
  • Whites favor recall 50-49.
  • Asian/Pacific Islanders favor recall 50-48.
  • Latinos oppose recall 56-40.
  • Blacks oppose recall 77-19 
  • Newsom’s job rating among all registered voters is 50% approve/42% disapprove.
  • Newsom’s job rating among most likely voters is 48% approve/51% disapprove.
  • The pollster points out that “the sample of voters most likely to participate in the recall election accounted for slightly less than half of all of the registered voters surveyed in the latest poll.” Moreover, it shows that the “demographic characteristics of those most likely to vote in the recall election differs significantly from the state’s overall electorate.” 

From the survey report: 

  • “While Republicans account for only about one-quarter of all voters in the overall electorate, the poll finds that among those most likely to participate in the recall election their share increases to a third (33%). And, while 46% of voters in the state’s overall electorate are registered Democrats and 24% are registered No Party Preference, among those most likely to vote, the share of Democrats declines to 42% and that of No Party Preference voters to 18%.”

Larry Elder: (R) 18%
John Cox (R): 10%
Kevin Falconer (R): 10%
Kevin Kiley (R): 5%
Kevin Paffrath (D): 3%
Caitlyn Jenner: (R): 3%
All others: 11%
Undecided: 40%
RON’S COMMENT: At this point, Republican Elder leads the field of replacement candidates should the incumbent be recalled. Here are the internals: 

  • 66% of Democrats are undecided on a replacement. Of those who are decided, Paffrath leads with 8%.
  • 22% of Republicans are undecided on a replacement. Of those who are decided, Elder gets 31%, Cox 16% and Falconer 13%.
  • 43% of independents are undecided on a replacement. Of those who are decided, Elder gets 24%, Falconer 18% and Cox 4%.


  • 34% of the total electorate say they are considering voting for Elder, while 78% of Republicans, 2% of Democrats and 29% of independents say so.
  • 28% of the total electorate say they are considering voting for Cox, while 56% of Republicans, 3% of Democrats and 28% of independents say so.
  • 26% of the total electorate say they are considering voting for Falconer, while 52% of Republicans, 6% of Democrats and 24% of independents say so.

Among voters statewide  

Chris Sununu (R) over Sen. Maggie Hassan (D): +1 (49-48)
Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Kelly Ayote (R): +4 (49-45)
Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Don Bolduc (R): +10 (51-41)

RON’S COMMENT: If Republican Gov. Sununu challenges incumbent Democratic Sen. Hassan for the seat, this poll shows a very tight race giving the GOP a pick-up possibility. This poll also indicates a competitive contest should former Sen. Ayotte be the GOP nominee…. Among the poll’s findings:

  • Big age gap: Democrat Hassan leads voters 18-34 by 39 points and those 65+ by 12 points. Republican Sununu leads voters 35-49 by 23 points and those 50-64 by 18 points.
  • Big gender gap: Hassan leads women by 19 points, Sununu leads men by 22 points.
  • Big education gap: Sununu leads voters with a high school education or less by 47 points, Hassan leads voters with graduate degrees by 49 points.

Among voters statewide

If the 2022 election for Governor was held today between Democrat Tony Evers and a Republican candidate, who would you vote for?
Republican candidate: 48%
Gov. Tony Evers (D): 47%
Undecided: 6%
RON’S COMMENT: Wisconsin is a swing state and these numbers are not so good for Democrats. They show a generic Republican challenger slightly edging incumbent Democratic Gov. Evers. The poll also shows that Evers’ rating is 46% favorable/51% unfavorable. Also not good for Democrats is Biden’s rating, which is 47% favorable/52% unfavorable. VP Harris does even worse: she’s 44% favorable/53% unfavorable. Keep in mind that Biden carried Wisconsin in 2020, albeit by less than a point.

Among voters statewide

If the 2022 election for Governor was held today between Democrat Michelle Lujan Grishamand a Republican candidate, who would you vote for?
Republican candidate: 47%
Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D): 45%
Undecided: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: These numbers are disappointing for Democrats in a state that leans their way. They show a generic Republican challenger edging incumbent Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham by 2 points. The poll also shows Grisham’s rating at 47% favorable/51% unfavorable. Biden’s rating, which is 50% favorable/50% unfavorable, is not particularly good in a state he carried in 2020 by 11 points. VP Harris is net negative in New Mexico: 45% favorable/51% unfavorable. 

Among voters nationwide

From the new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll:
Optimistic vs. pessimistic: 
40% of voters are optimistic the economy will get better within the next year, while 38% think it’ll get worse. 60% of Democrats think it will get better, 61% of Republicans think it will get worse. 
Who’s most responsible for the current state of the economy? 
52% of voters say Biden. (That includes 64% of Republicans, 49% of Democrats and 41% of independents.)
Who/what do you blame for inflation? 
58% of voters say the Biden administration’s policies. (That includes 82% of Republicans, 58% of independents and 41% of Democrats.
RON’S COMMENT: Democrats need to worry about the inflation number­­––a solid majority of voters, including a substantial share of Democrats, are ready to blame the administration.

Among voters nationwide

% = Extremely enthusiastic + Very enthusiastic = Total
Democrats: 24% + 24% = 48%
Republicans: 33% + 15% = 48%
Independents: 16% + 16% = 32%
RON’S COMMENT: Republican enthusiasm is more intense. Among voters who are “extremely enthusiastic” about voting, Republicans lead 33-24. But among those who are “very enthusiastic,” Democrats lead 24-15. Of course, there is still plenty of time between now and November 2022 for these numbers to shift.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Univ. of NH, July 15-19
INTEREST IN 2022 MID-TERM ELECTIONS: Politico/Morning Consult, July 16-18

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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