LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Harris Net Negative – New Hampshire Primary – $300 Child Payments – Vaccination – Voting Issues – Crime – Virginia

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, July 22, 2021

Down 1 from Sunday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 50% (The Economist, Rasmussen) to 53% (Reuters). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 44% today (same as Sunday).

Among Republican primary voters statewide

Donald Trump: 47%
Ron DeSantis: 19%
Nikki Haley: 6%
Mike Pence: 5%
Kristi Noem: 2%
Ted Cruz: 2%
Others: 9%
Don’t know: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: These numbers from New Hampshire are similar to national numbers we recently reported…. Here, Trump is also below 50%––he leads the field 47-43…. Also noteworthy: DeSantis leads Trump among second-choice votes, 39-7, which indicates depth of support for the Florida governor…. Interesting how all the other possible contenders, including Pence, are stuck in single digits.

Among voters statewide

(Trafalgar-R) Terry McAuliffe (D) over Glenn Youngkin (R): +2 (47-45)
(SPRY-R) Terry McAuliffe (D) over Glenn Youngkin (R): +5 (46-41)
RON’S COMMENT: Former Democratic Gov. McAuliffe continues to lead in his comeback bid, but the margins are tight to fairly tight based on these two polls taken by Republican-oriented firms.

Among adults nationwide

How would you describe your personal situation regarding COVID-19 vaccines? 

  • I have received all the injections required to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19: 58% 
  • I have started the vaccination process, but need another shot: 5% 
  • I plan to get vaccinated: 8% 
  • I will not get vaccinated: 18% 
  • I’m not sure about getting vaccinated 12% 

RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows that 73% of Democrats and 53% of Republicans say they’re fully vaccinated. It also finds that 49% of Blacks, 47% of Hispanics, 48% of those with incomes below $50k, 39% of 18-29-year-olds and 47% of 30-44 year-olds say they’re fully vaccinated.

Among voters nationwide

% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Joe Biden: 52%/45%
Kamala Harris: 45%/47%
Donald Trump: 44%/54%
RON’S COMMENT: While Biden is above water (52%/45%), Harris is net negative (45%/47%)…. Trump’s numbers are a bit below his 2020 election vote (46.9% vs. 44%) and Biden’s are about the same (51.3% vs. 52%)…. Note that Biden is more popular among fellow Democrats (92%) than Trump is among fellow Republicans (85%)…. Internal data: 

  • 11% of Republicans, 92% of Democrats and 46% of independents are favorable toward Biden.
  • 6% of Republicans, 85% of Democrats and 38% of independents are favorable toward Harris.
  • 85% of Republicans, 11% of Democrats and 39% of independents are favorable toward Trump.

Among voters nationwide

Support or oppose: As you may know, on July 15, 2021 the Treasury Department began making payments of up to $300 a month per child to most families with children, also known as expanded child tax credit payments. Do you support or oppose these expanded child tax credit payments? 
Support: 54%
Oppose: 35%
RON’S COMMENT: 75% of Democrats, 31% of Republicans, 52% of independents, 49% of Whites, 74% of Blacks, and 62% of Hispanics support the $300 per child payments, based on the Politico poll…. A separate poll from The Economist had similar results (51% approve of the payments, 32% disapprove), although their question was worded differently.
Make permanent: As you may know, the expanded child tax credit payments are set to expire in a year. Do you think the payments should be made permanent? 
Yes, make permanent: 35%
No, do not make permanent: 52%
RON’S COMMENT: While a majority of voters support the one-time child payments, a majority oppose making them permanent. 31% of Democrats, 73% of Republicans, 53% of independents, 56% of Whites, 33% of Blacks, and 33% of Hispanics oppose making the $300 per child payments permanent.

Among voters nationwide

Now, thinking about your vote, what would you say is the top set of issues on your mind when you cast your vote for federal offices such as U.S. Senate or Congress? 

  • Economic Issues – like taxes, wages, jobs, unemployment, and spending: 38% 
  • Security Issues – like terrorism, foreign policy, and border security: 15% 
  • Health Care Issues – like the 2010 health care law, Medicaid, other challenges: 13% 
  • Seniors Issues – like Medicare and Social Security: 11% 
  • Women’s Issues – like birth control, abortion, and equal pay: 6% 
  • Energy Issues – like carbon emissions, cost of electricity/gasoline, or renewables: 6% 
  • Education Issues – like school standards, class sizes, school choice, and student loans: 5%

Among voters nationwide

Believe violent crime is a major problem in…

  • The United States: 78%
  • In your state: 50%
  • In your local community: 26%

Major reason that violent crime is increasing in the United States…

  • Too many guns on the streets: 52%
  • The defunding of police departments: 49%
  • The lack of adequate funding for mental health programs: 47%
  • The pandemic’s unique effect on mental health: 35%
  • As pandemic restrictions are lifted, people are returning to public spaces: 25%

RON’S COMMENT: This poll finds that 78% of voters see violent crime as a major problem in the United States––and 76% of Democrats see too many guns on the street as a major reason, while only 29% of Republicans give that response. In comparison, 74% of Republicans see defunding of police departments as a major reason, while 29% of Democrats say the same…. One could reasonably challenge the question asked in terms of the response options. Items such as criminal sentencing, judicial discretion, police manpower, use of technology and recruitment of police officers are not included, for example.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Granite State Poll/University of New Hampshire, July 15-19
VIRGINIA: Trafalgar Group (R), July 8-10; SPRY Strategies (R), July 6-9
VACCINATION: The Economist/YouGov, July 17-20
FAVORABILITY, $300 CHILD PAYMENTS, VOTING ISSUES: Morning Consult/Politico, Jul. 16–18
PUBLIC SAFETY: Morning Consult/Politico, Jul. 9–12

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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