LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Eyebrow-Raising Georgia Senate Update

Your Daily Polling Update for Saturday, January 2, 2021

Among voters statewide

GEORGIA (Special Election)
(JMC) Raphael Warnock (D) over Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R): +9 (54-45)
GEORGIA (Regular Election)
(JMC) Jon Ossoff (D) over Sen. David Perdue (R): +8 (53-45)
RON’S COMMENT: These shocking––and, frankly, hard to believe––poll results show the two Democrats pulling away from their Republican opponents. Both Warnock and Ossoff post substantial margins in this most recent public poll, conducted Monday and Tuesday…. The survey sample’s racial breakdown is 61% White, 29% Black and 10% other. Warnock wins Blacks 95-4 and Loeffler wins Whites 66-33. Ossoff wins Blacks 94-4 and Perdue wins Whites 65-33…. The poll also shows Republican Gov. Brian Kemp in bad shape––Kemp’s rating is 29% approve/57% disapprove. Kemp has become the unlikely victim of Donald Trump’s wrath. GOPers who are attacked by Trump usually lose significant Republican support without gaining offsetting Democratic support…. The poll report explains: 

  • “Given that the poll numbers in both U.S. Senate races are almost identical, there are some common threads that can be discussed: (1) both Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff have nearly unanimous black support, (2) both Democrats have double digit leads among those with a racial classification of “other” (which includes Asians and Hispanics), and (3) both Democrats are garnering the support of one third of white respondents – Jon Ossoff is getting 40% of the white vote in Cobb and Gwinnett Counties (43% support Warnock), while in the “core counties” of Clayton, DeKalb, and Fulton, both Ossoff and Warnock are getting 55% of the white vote. Even in the central and south Georgia media markets, 33% of white voters are supporting Warnock while 36% are supporting Ossoff.” 
  • “What should be concerning to both Republican Senate candidates is that Democrats have built up a massive lead from those voting (or planning to vote) before Election Day: mail in voters are 67-31% for Ossoff/69-29% for Warnock, while advance voters are 55-44% for Ossoff/55-45% for Warnock.” 

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