LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Final Poll Averages

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, November 3, 2020

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Election Day and President Trump’s average approval rating is 46%––the exact same percentage of the popular vote he received in 2016––and may receive again?…. Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 46%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020  at approval trend.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
Among general election voters

FINAL––POLL AVERAGES, NATIONWIDE POPULR VOTE
(Based on the latest 15 polls; includes polls that were reported today for the first time)
 
(Redfield & Wilton) Biden +12 (53-41)
(Quinnipiac) Biden +11 (50-39)
(USC) Biden +11 (54-43)
(Qriously) Biden +11 (54-43)
(YouGov) Biden +10 (53-43)
(WSJ/NBC) Biden +10 (52-42)
(CNBC) Biden +10 (52-42)
(AYTM) Biden +9 (48-39)
(Morning Consult) Biden +8 (52-44)
(SurveyUSA) Biden +8 (52-44)
(RMG) Biden +7 (51-44)
(Reuters) Biden +7 (52-45)
(JTN/RMG) Biden +7 (51-44)
(IBD/TIPP) Biden +4 (50-46)
(Rasmussen) Biden +1 (48-47)
Average of last 15 polls: Biden +8.3
 
RON’S COMMENT: Biden’s average national popular vote is 51.4% (up slightly from 51.3% yesterday) and Trump’s average national popular vote is 43.1% (down slightly from 44.2% yesterday). That leaves 5.5% undecided or for third-party candidates…. If you assume there is a “hidden” Trump vote of one or two points and one or two points of the undecided/third-party vote breaks his way, that would put him at about his 2016 vote percentage of 46%, which is also right where his average job approval rating is today.
 
FINAL––POLL AVERAGES IN THE STATES 
(Based on most recent polling; includes polls that were reported today for the first time)
 
States Trump carried in 2016
First # = Yesterday’s Average; Second # = Today’s Average

• WISCONSIN (10): Biden +6.6, +8.7
• MICHIGAN (16): Biden +4.8, +4.2 
• PENNSYLVANIA (20): Biden +4.2, +2.8
• FLORIDA (29): Biden +2, +2 
• ARIZONA (11): Biden +1, +1.7
• OHIO (18): Biden +0.3, Trump +2 
• GEORGIA (16): Biden +0.4, Trump +1 
• NORTH CAROLINA (15): Trump +1.2, Biden +0.6
• TEXAS (38): Trump +1.7, +1.7 
• IOWA (6): Trump +3.3, +2.3 
• MAINE CD2 (1): Biden +3.7, +3.7

States Clinton carried in 2016
First # = Yesterday’s Average; Second # = Today’s Average

• NEVADA (6): Biden +3.6, +2.3

RON’S COMMENT: For each state, we have two averages. The first average is yesterday’s reported polls and the second average includes today’s reported polls…. It should be mentioned that a number of new polls were conducted by Trafalgar, which is a Republican-affiliated firm that often shows Trump doing better than other polls…. Here are the changes since yesterday:  

• Ohio and Georgia flipped from Biden to Trump, but still close. 
• North Carolina flipped from Trump to Biden, but still very close. 
• Biden still leads Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada––but, his margins declined.
• Biden’s lead widened in Wisconsin and Arizona; the latter is still very close.
• Trump still leads Iowa––but, his margin declined.
• Biden’s slim lead in Florida holding steady.

SENATE ELECTIONS
Among voters in each state

POLL AVERAGES: Averages of most recent polls in each state; updated since yesterday
 
ALABAMA
Tommy Tuberville (R) over Sen. Doug Jones (D): +10.8
Handicappers rate the race lean or likely Republican
 
COLORADO
John Hickenlooper (D) over Sen. Cory Gardner (R): +9.3 
Handicappers rate the race lean or likely Democratic

ARIZONA
Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +6.1
Handicappers rate the race tilt/lean Democratic

MAINE
Sara Gideon (D) over Sen. Susan Collins (R): +3.8
Handicappers rate the race tilt/lean Democraticor tossup
 
NORTH CAROLINA
Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +3
Handicappers rate the race lean Democratic or tossup

GEORGIA
Jon Ossoff (D) over Sen. David Perdue (R): +1 
Handicappers rate the race tossup
 
MONTANA
Sen. Steve Daines (R) over Steve Bullock (D): +0.3
Handicappers rate the race tossup or lean Republican

IOWA
Sen. Joni Ernst (R) over Theresa Greenfield (D): +0.1
Handicappers rate the race tossup or lean Republican 

MICHIGAN
Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +5.5 
Handicappers rate the race lean Democratic
 
SOUTH CAROLINA
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) over Jaime Harrison (D): +3.2
Handicappers rate the race lean/tilt Republican or tossup
 
KANSAS
Roger Marshall (R) over Barbara Boilier (D): +3.3
Handicappers rate the race lean or tilt Republican
 
TEXAS
Sen. John Cornyn (R) over MJ Hegar (D): +6
Handicappers rate the race lean Republican
 
MINNESOTA
Sen. Tina Smith (D) over Jason Lewis (R): +9.6
Handicappers rate the race safe or likely Democratic

KENTUCKY
Sen. Mitchell (R) over Amy McGrath (D): +10.3
Handicappers rate the race safe or likely Republican
 
MISSISSIPPI
Sen. Cindy-Hyde Smith (R) over Mike Espy (D): +6.5
Handicappers rate the race likely or safe Republican
 
NEW MEXICO
Ben Ray Lujan (D) over Mark Ronchetti (R): +9.7 
Handicappers rate the race safe or likely Democratic
 
VIRGINIA
Sen. Mark Warner (D) over Daniel Glade (R): +17.7
Handicappers rate the race safe Democratic
 
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) over Corky Messner (R): +14.3
Handicappers rate the race safe or likely Democratic
 
ALASKA
Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) over Al Gross (I): +3
Handicappers rate the race lean Republican
 
GEORGIA Special Election; Open Primary
Raphael Warnock (D): 42.6%
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R): 24%
Doug Collins (R): 22.4%
Matt Lieberman (D): 5%
(If no one wins a majority, there will be a runoff in January)
 
RON’S COMMENT: Based on these polling averages––
Republicans have:

• A good chance at picking up one seat now held by a Democrat (Alabama). 
• An outside chance at picking up one other seat now held by a Democrat (Michigan).

Democrats have:

• A good chance at picking up three seats now held by Republicans (Colorado, Arizona, Maine). 
• A fair chance at picking up one seat now held by a Republican (North Carolina). 
• An even chance at picking up three seats now held by Republicans (Georgia, Iowa, Montana).
• An outside chance at picking up three seats now held by Republicans (Kansas, South Carolina and Alaska; the Democratic nominee in Alaska is an independent).

TUESDAY TRIVIA

Which was the closest state in the 2016 general election in in terms of vote percentages? 
BONUS: Which state was second closest?

(See answers below)

SOURCES
Presidential job rating and state poll averages based on most recent polls.
 
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TUESDAY TRIVIA
Michigan was the closest state in 2016. Trump’s margin of victory was 0.23 points.
BONUS: New Hampshire was second closest. Clinton’s margin of victory was 0.37 points.

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