LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Split Polls in Key States – Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, Montana Senate

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, October 26,  2020

Up 1 from Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 41% (Quinnipiac) to 52% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would be 44%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Friday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.

Among general election voters

Nationwide Popular Vote
(USC) Biden +10 (53-43)
(IBD/TIPP) Biden +7 (52-45-2)
(Rasmussen) Trump +1 (48-47)
Average of today’s polls: Biden +6
Average of last seven polls: Biden +7.7
RON’S COMMENT: Our seven-poll average has Biden on top, in the same 7- to 9-point range we’ve seen for a while…. The IBD/TIPP poll shows Biden’s support increasing by 3.6 points over the last week and Trump’s support slightly falling. It also shows Biden’s lead among independents expanding from 2 points several days ago to 7 points now…. Since February, only Rasmussen has put Trump ahead. While Rasmussen often shows Trump doing better than other polls, it appears that gap is widening.
In the States
States Trump carried in 2016
NORTH CAROLINA: (Trafalgar-R): Trump +3
TEXAS (Dallas Morning News): Biden +2
TEXAS (Univ. of Houston): Trump +5
GEORGIA (Atlanta Jour. Const.): Biden +1

PENNSYLVANIA (U. of Wis): Biden +8
WISCONSIN (U. of Wis.): Biden +9
MICHIGAN (U. of Wis): Biden +10
FLORIDA (CBS): Biden +2
RON’S COMMENT: Split results on North Carolina and Texas…. Georgia is about as tight as a race gets…. Today’s polls show Biden with a firm grasp on the Triple Crown states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. But––these three polls were taken before last week’s debate, which means the numbers may be stale…. Florida continues to be close; today’s poll has Biden slightly ahead.

Among voters in each state

Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +6 (49-43)
COMMENT: After a number of polls indicating a tightened race, this one has Democrat Cunningham widening his lead again.
Sen. Steve Daines (R) over Steve Bullock (D): +3 (49-46)
COMMENT: This remains close with GOP incumbent Daines showing an edge.
GEORGIA Special Election Open Primary 
(Atlanta Jour. Const.)
Raphael Warnock (D): 34%
Doug Collins (R): 21%
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R): 20%
Matt Lieberman (D): 4%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll has Democrat Warnock on top with Republicans Collins and Loeffler fighting it out for second place and a runoff berth.
GEORGIA Regular Election
(CBS) Sen. David Perdue (R) over Jon Ossoff (D): +1 (47-46)
(Atlanta Jour. Const.) Jon Ossoff (D) over Sen. David Perdue (R): +1 (46-45)
COMMENT: Split results, but the bottom line is a close race.
(Dallas Morning News) Sen. John Cornyn (R) over MJ Hegar (D): +8 (42-34)
(U. of Houston) Sen. John Cornyn (R) over MJ Hegar (D): +7 (49-42)
COMMENT: Cornyn remains ahead in this polling which was completed a week ago.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL: USC, Oct. 12-15; IBD/TIPP, Oct. 21-25; Rasmussen, Oct. 21-25
STATE POLLS: Pollsters indicated along with results; most interviewing done within the last week, or otherwise noted. 
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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