Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, September 28, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Down 1 from Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 43% (Reuters) to 46% (NYT, Emerson, Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 45%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as Friday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
Nationwide Popular Vote
(WaPo/ABC) Biden +10 (54-44)
(WaPo/ABC) Biden +6 (49-43-4-3)
(NYT) Biden +8 (49-41)
(Reuters) Biden +8 (50-42)
Today’s 2-way average: Biden +8.7
Average of last five polls: Biden +6.8
RON’S COMMENT: The Washington Post/ABC poll results raise an interesting question: Will third-party candidates split off enough anti-Trump votes to jeopardize Biden’s lead? This poll shows Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian Party) capturing 4% and Howie Hawkins (Green Party) getting 3%––combined, they’re taking 5 points from Biden and 1 point from Trump. In a close contest, these votes could make a difference in critical states. Add this to uncounted mail votes and other logistical concerns that are causing Democrats heartburn.
In the States
States Trump carried in 2016
WISCONSIN (NBC): Biden +10
MICHIGAN (NBC): Biden +8
NORTH CAROLINA (CBS): Biden +2
GEORGIA (CBS): Trump +1
SOUTH CAROLINA (CBS): Trump +10
States Clinton carried in 2016
MINNESOTA (Star Tribune): Biden +6
MINNESOTA (USA Today): Biden +7
NEVADA (Rasmussen): Biden +1
RON’S COMMENT: These polls show Biden winning Pennsylvania and solidifying leads in Michigan and Wisconsin. Keep in mind: If Biden wins these three states, and holds the Hillary Clinton states, he wins the White House…. Biden also edges Trump in North Carolina, but the state remains very tight…. Trump wins South Carolina by 10 points in this survey; four years ago, he won the state by 14 points…. Biden draws 6-7 point leads in Minnesota, that’s better than Clinton did in 2016 when she won the state by less than 2 points…. Rasmussen, which often shows Trump doing better than other polls, has Biden’s lead in Nevada at only 1 point. Clinton won the state in 2016 by 2 points.
SENATE ELECTIONS
Among voters in each state
SOUTH CAROLINA (CBS)
Lindsey Graham (R) over Jaime Harrison (D): +1 (45-44)
COMMENT: The air wars are in full swing, and Graham has been taking a pounding for inconsistencies on both election-year Supreme Court confirmations and offshore drilling. Handicappers rate the race lean Republican.
GEORGIA Regular Election (CBS)
Sen. David Perdue (R) over Jon Ossoff (D): +5 (47-42)
COMMENT: Handicappers rate the race either a tossup or tilt/lean Republican.
MICHIGAN
(NBC) Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +5 (49-44)
(Trafalgar-R) Sen. Gary Peters (D) and John James (R): Even (47-47)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Peters leads the NBC poll, but ties in the Rasmussen poll. Handicappers rate the race lean Democratic.
HANDLING THE PANDEMIC
Among voters nationwide
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump has handled COVID-19?
Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 57%
RON’S COMMENT: A solid majority of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the pandemic. Even 19% of Republicans and 22% of conservatives disapprove…. Also:
- Voters rate the federal government’s handling of the pandemic 32% positive/65% negative.
- Voters rate state government handling of the pandemic 46% positive/53% negative.
- Voters rate local government handling of the pandemic 47% positive/48% negative.
- 69% of voters support a mandatory mask policy in public places; this includes 93% of Biden’s voters and 41% of Trump’s voters.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL:
STATE POLLS: POLLSTERS INDICATED ALONG WITH RESULTS; MOST INTERVIEWING DONE WITHIN THE LAST WEEK, OR OTHERWISE NOTED.
HANDLING OF THE PANDEMIC: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 20-22
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