LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Iowa, Michigan

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, September 25, 2020

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on seven polls, ranging from 43% (Politico, CNBC, Quinnipiac) to 52% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 46%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.

Among general election voters

Nationwide Popular Vote
(Emerson) Biden +4 (48-44)
(The Hill) Biden +5 (45-40-4)
Today’s average: Biden +4.5
Average of last five polls: Biden +5.2
RON’S COMMENT: The previous Hill poll from a week ago had Biden ahead by 6 points; this one has him up 5 points. The last Emerson poll, at the end of August, had Biden ahead by 2 points. This new poll shows Biden ahead by 4 points…. Interestingly, The Hill poll shows 4% voting for third parties, 4% not voting and 7% not sure. It also has Trump winning men by 7 points and whites by 11 points. Biden wins women by 15 points, Blacks 72-13 and Hispanics 49-27.
In the States
States Trump carried in 2016
OHIO (Quinnipiac): Biden +1
OHIO (Fox News): Biden +5
PENNSYLVANIA (Fox News): Biden +7
TEXAS (Quinnipiac): Trump +5
IOWA (Monmouth): Trump +3
MICHIGAN (Trafalgar-R): Trump +1

States Clinton carried in 2016
NEVADA (Fox News): Biden +11
MAINE (Colby College): Biden +11
MARYLAND (OpinionWorks): Biden +32
RON’S COMMENT: The Ohio polls, especially the Fox News numbers, are good for Biden. Trump won this state in 2016 by 8 points…. Having a clear 7-point lead in tricky Pennsylvania is a big plus for Biden…. This Nevada survey is also good for Biden. Clinton carried the state by only 2 points in 2016 and it could have been a swing state this year. But this poll indicates Biden is in a good position…. Same for Maine. Trump lost the state by only 3 points in 2016, but this time his deficit is wider. He’s also behind in both of the state’s congressional districts…. Today’s Iowa poll is good news for Trump. The NYT poll we reported yesterday had Biden ahead by 3 points. Trump carried Iowa four years ago by 9 points…. The Republican-affiliated Trafalgar poll shows Trump ahead in Michigan. Trafalgar is the only polling outfit that has shown Trump ahead in Michigan all year. The previous five polls from other pollsters have Biden up by an average of 6.4 points. Caveat emptor.

Among voters in each state

IOWA (Monmouth)
Theresa Greenfield (D) over Sen. Joni Ernst (R): +3 (49-43)
RON’S COMMENT: This is the third poll in a row showing challenger Greenfield leading incumbent Ernst. Handicappers rate the contest tossup.
MAINE (Colby College)
Sara Gideon (D) over Sen. Susan Collins (R): +4 (45-41)
RON’S COMMENT: This is the tenth poll in a row showing Democrat Gideon ahead. Most of this poll’s interviewing was conducted after Justice Ginsburg’s passing. Handicappers rate the contest tossup or lean Democratic.

Among voters nationwide

Looking at the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S., do you believe that… 
The pandemic is going to get worse: 41% 
We are currently in the worst part of the pandemic: 12% 
The worst part of the pandemic is behind us: 30% 
Not sure: 17%
RON’S COMMENT: Among Biden voters, 61% say the pandemic is going to get worse, 12% say we are currently in the worst part and 8% say the worst part is behind us…. Among Trump voters, 17% say the pandemic is going to get worse, 12% say we are currently in the worst part and 56% say the worst part is behind us.

SOURCESPresidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL: The Hill/HarrisX, Sept. 19-21; Emerson College, Sept. 22-23
PANDEMIC PERCEPTIONS: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 20-22

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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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