Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, September 10, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 44%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (+1 from yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
Nationwide Popular Vote
(Reuters) Biden +12
(USC) Biden +12
(Economist) Biden +9
(The Hill) Biden: +8
(CBNC) Biden +6
(Rasmussen) Biden: +2
Average of last six polls: Biden +8.2
RON’S COMMENT: Biden holds on to a solid average national popular vote lead. He has substantial leads in four polls, a modest lead in one poll and a small lead in one poll…. Biden went into the convention period with an average lead of 7.7 points (based on six pre-convention polls) and he now has an average lead of 8.2 points (based on the six most recent polls). This means that the Trump campaign, despite a temporary bump, ultimately failed to change the dynamics of the race during the convention period. The contest is now back to about where it was before the conventions.
In the States
States Trump carried in 2016:
FLORIDA (St. Pete): Biden +3
FLORIDA (CNBC): Biden +3
WISCONSIN (Marquette): Biden +4
WISCONSIN (CNBC): Biden +6
MICHIGAN: Biden +6
NORTH CAROLINA: Biden +2
ARIZONA: Biden +4
State Clinton carried in 2016:
MINNESOTA: Biden +9
RON’S COMMENT: These polls are generally good news for Biden. It shows him leading in these key swing states, most of which Trump won four years ago. Keep in mind, though, that some of today’s tighter leads (+2, +3) are far from insurmountable––especially if there is a 1- to 2-point hidden Trump vote, as there may be in some places.
SENATE ELECTIONS
Among voters in each state
MICHIGAN
Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +4 (50-46)
COMMENT: This poll shows incumbent Peters hanging on to a modest lead. Will Michigan vote the same party in the Senate race as it does in the presidential election? That’s surely possible, although in this poll Biden’s lead is 2 points better than the lead posted by Democrat Peters (6 vs. 4)…. Handicappers rate this Senate race lean Democratic.
NORTH CAROLINA
Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +7 (51-44)
COMMENT: Democratic challenger Cunningham holds his lead and breaks 50%. Handicappers rate the race a tossup.
ARIZONA
Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +6 (51-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Kelly’s lead has been bouncing around, but he continues to maintain the advantage. Handicappers rate the contest tilt or lean Democratic.
U.S. POLITICAL SYSTEM
Among adults nationwide
Now thinking about how things actually are in the U.S. today, HOW WELL does each of the following describe the country?
% = Very/Somewhat Well
- People are free to peacefully protest: 60%
- Balance of power between government branches: 53%
- Everyone has an equal opportunity to succeed: 51%
- Rights and freedoms of all people are respected: 41%
- Judges are not influenced by political parties or elected officials: 40%
- Government is open and transparent: 30%
- Tone of political debate is respectful: 28%
- People agree on basic facts even if they disagree politically: 28%
- Elected officials face serious consequences for misconduct: 27%
- Campaign contributions do not lead to greater political influence: 26%
COMMENT: Note which descriptions fall below the 50% line, that tells us a lot about the nation’s views of the political system…. Since 2018, the share of Americans who believe that “people are free to peacefully protest” in the U.S. has declined from 73% to 60%, with only 43% of Democrats now agreeing.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
DESCRIBING POLITICAL SYSTEM: Pew Research Center, July 27–Aug 2
NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL: The Economist/YouGov, Sept.6-8; Rasmussen Sept. 2-8; USC Sept. 2-8; The Hill Sept. 5-9; Reuters/Ipsos, Sept. 3- 8; CNBC/Change Research (D) Sept. 4-6
WISCONSIN: Marquette, Aug. 30-Sept. 3; CNBC/Change Research (D), Sept. 4-6
FLORIDA: St. Pete Polls, Sept. 7-8; CNBC/Change Research (D), Sept. 4-6
NORTH CAROLINA: CNBC/Change Research (D), Sept. 4-6
ARIZONA: CNBC/Change Research (D), Sept. 4-6
MICHIGAN: CNBC/Change Research (D), Sept. 4-6
MINNESOTA: KSTP/SurveyUSA Sept. 4-9
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