Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, September 9, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 39% (IBD/TIPP) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 44%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
In the States
States Trump carried in 2016:
FLORIDA: even
OHIO: Biden +4
MISSOURI: Trump +5
PENNSYLVANIA (Susquehanna): Biden +2
PENNSYLVANIA (CNBC): Biden +4
PENNSYLVANIA (NBC); Biden +9
State Clinton carried in 2016:
NEW JERSEY: Biden +17
RON’S COMMENT: Uh oh! Looks like we may have another nail-biter in Florida. These results show a tie are based on likely voters; when we look at the registered voter sample, Trump gains a 1-point edge. In Florida, Biden wins Blacks 83-11, women 57-40 and independents 51-40. Trump wins men 58-38, Whites 56-41 and Whites without college degrees 63-35. Interesting: Biden is ahead of Trump by 1 point among seniors; four years ago Trump won Florida’s seniors by 17 points.
- Pennsylvania is being, well, Pennsylvania; numbers bouncing around, and some close enough for the race to go either way.
- The Ohio results are not good for Trump. This is a state he won by 8 points in 2016. Any Biden lead in Ohio is a good lead for him.
- Though Trump wins Missouri in this new poll, the numbers are not encouraging from a wider perspective. Trump won Missouri by almost 19 points last time and is now ahead by a much tighter margin.
CONCERNS: IF OTHER CANDIDATE WINS
Among voters nationwide
Among Trump Voters: You said you were voting for Donald Trump. Which would concern you most in 2021 if Joe Biden does win? Would you be most concerned about how Biden would handle…
Economic issues: 59%
Policing and protests: 31%
Matters on race and race relations: 6%
Coronavirus issues: 4%
RON’S COMMENT: Trump voters fear Biden’s handling of economic issues the most. Policing and protests run second.
Among Biden Voters: You said you were voting for Joe Biden. Which would concern you most in 2021 if Donald Trump does win? Would you be most concerned about how Trump would handle…
Coronavirus issues: 38%
Matters on race and race relations: 30%
Policing and protests: 17%
Economic issues: 15%
COMMENT: Biden voters fear the most how Trump would handle the coronavirus and race issues.
LOOKING FOR IN A PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE
Among voters nationwide
While the job of president involves many things, when you vote for a presidential candidate, which of these is the most important thing you look for:
- Management – that is, someone to make executive decisions, work on legislating, and handle crises that may arise: 35%
- Morality – that is, someone to act as a personal example for the nation’s people and their values: 16%
- Leadership – that is, someone who can set the larger direction for the country and inspire people to follow it: 46%
- Personal connection – that is, someone who shares a similar background, upbringing or life experience as you: 3%
COMMENT: 50% of Democrats select leadership as the most important quality, behind management (26%) and morality (20%). Republicans rate leadership (44%) and management (41%) as their top two.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
FLORIDA: NBC/Marist, Aug. 31-Sept. 6
OHIO: Rasmussen, Sept. 1-2
MISSOURI: We ask America, Sept. 1-3
NEW JERSEY: Emerson, Sept. 4-7
PENNSYLVANIA: Susquehanna, Aug. 26-Sept. 4
CONCERNS, LOOKING FOR IN CANDIDATES: CBS/YouGov, Sep. 2–4
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