LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Convention Bounce for Biden?

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, August 24, 2020

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Same as Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 39% (Politico) to 51% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 43%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 56% today (same as Friday)….See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.

Due to the hurricanes and possible power outages, Lunchtime Politics may not be published every day this week. Stay tuned, we’ll do our best!

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
Among general election voters

Nationwide Popular Vote
 
(CBS) Biden +10
(Morning Consult) Biden +9
Average: Biden +9.5
 
RON’S COMMENT: Was there a Biden convention bounce?…. The CBS poll shows Biden’s lead the same as it was before the “convention.” That’s no bounce…. The Morning Consult poll shows Biden expanding his lead by 1 point. While that’s a small improvement, statistically it’s not a bounce. 

From Morning Consult’s poll report:

• While Biden’s trial heat lead over Trump didn’t change much, Biden’s personal favorability did improve as a result of the “convention.” Biden’s favorable rating rose 3 points, to 51%—while his unfavorable rating fell by 3 points, to 45%. Republicans, of course, will try to chop down Biden’s numbers this week.
• 87% of Biden’s support is hard, that’s up from 82% pre-convention.
• Despite the four-day pounding he took, Trump’s ratings didn’t move, although they remain decidedly net-negative at 43% favorable/55% unfavorable. 
• Television viewership of the “convention” was down about 18% from 2016. 
• 71% of Democrats, 17% of independents and 11% of Republicans say they watched “a lot” of the Democratic “convention.” The low audience among independents was not so good for Democrats––they should have had more independents tune in.
• 45% of independents who watched the convention felt “more positive” about Biden compared to 24% who were unchanged and 30% who were “more negative.” The problem was that only 17% of independents watched the convention.
• Biden’s speech had an audience of 24.6 million people, according to Nielsen.
• In 2016, Hillary Clinton came out of the Democratic convention leading Trump 43-40––much closer than the 9- to 10-point lead Biden now enjoys.

Fom the CBS poll report:

• When evaluating U.S. efforts against the coronavirus pandemic, only 10% of Democrats and 33% of independents believe the number of fatalities is “acceptable.” But, a solid majority of Republicans (57%) say the number of fatalities is “acceptable.” 
• 42% of voters give Trump good marks handling the coronavirus, and 58% give him bad marks.
• 35% of all voters believe the country is better off than it was four years ago, and 65% believe it isn’t. While these numbers are bad for Trump, it should be explained that some voters who don’t think the country is better off do not blame the president for the current situation.
• 35% of all voters believe the economy is “good” and 61% believe it’s “bad.” 
• 38% of all voters believe the U.S. response to the coronavirus is going well and 62% believe it’s going bad. This is not good for Trump.
• 44% of voters believe there has been “too much” attention on issues of discrimination, 32% say “not enough” and 24% say it’s been “about right.” However, by 50-27, independents (who are often swing voters) think there was “too much” attention to discrimination issues versus those who say “not enough attention.”

From the Axios/Survey Monkey post-convention poll:

• Biden’s favorability rating among independents went up 9 points and his negative rating went down 5 points as a result of the “convention”––which is good news for Biden’s campaign. However, an unimpressive 32% of independents now see the former VP favorably. Also, only 7%of Trump’s 2016 voters have a favorable view of Biden.
• Biden’s favorable rating is now 85% among all Democrats and Harris is 77% among her fellow partisans.
• Of Democrats who watched last week’s activities, 44% say a virtual “convention” is better than traditional, in-person conventions; 42% say it was about the same and only 12% say it was worse. Numbers like this could present a stumbling block to the return of traditional conventions in four years.

REPUBLICAN EXPECTATIONS FOR CONVENTION
Among Republican voters nationwide

Republican voters nationwide: 

• Plan to watch a lot of the Republican convention: 32%
• Plan to watch some of the Republican convention: 34%

At the convention, would prefer to hear Republicans talk more about …

What they would do if elected: 85%
Why think Joe Biden should not be elected: 15%

At the convention, would prefer to hear Republicans talk more about …

Good things about Donald Trump and Mike Pence: 90%
Criticism of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris: 10%

COMMENT: Nearly two-thirds of Republican voters plan on watching at least some of the Republican “convention.” They overwhelmingly want to hear a positive message about their candidate and what a new term would look like.

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL NATIONAL: CBS/YouGov, Aug. 20-22; Morning Consult, Aug. 21
CONVENTION: CBS/YouGov, August 19-21
 
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. This week may be touch and go because of the hurricanes. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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