Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, August 21, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 39% (Politico) to 51% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 43%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (same as yesterday), which is 12 points higher than his approval rating….See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
State Trump carried in 2016:
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden +4
States Clinton carried in 2016:
MINNESOTA: even
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Biden +8
RON’S COMMENT: Based on the last four polls, Biden has an average lead of 5.8 points in Pennsylvania, a critical state…. Minnesota is an interesting case. Hillary Clinton carried it by less than 2 points in 2016. Polling in June and July showed Biden with double-digit leads. But this poll, taken by a Republican-affiliated firm, has the race even and the previous poll by another outfit, from a week earlier, had Biden only 3 points ahead…. Last time, Hillary Clinton barely carried New Hampshire by four-tenths of a point. This poll shows Biden doing better.
Avant le déluge: There have not been many presidential polls this week. But hold on to your seat––once the two "conventions" are over we will see a flood of them!
VOTER ENTHUSIASM
Among voters nationwide
Compared to voting in previous Presidential election years, are you more or less enthusiastic about voting in this year’s Presidential election?
More enthusiastic: 53%
Less enthusiastic: 16%
About the same: 28%
RON’S COMMENT: Here’s another poll showing an enthusiasm gap favoring Republicans. 54% of Biden’s voters vs. 60% of Trump’s voters say they are more enthusiastic about voting in this year’s presidential election than they were in the last election. We will have to see whether the Democratic “convention” closes this gap which could impact turnout.
FAIR ELECTION?
Among voters nationwide
How much confidence do you have that the 2020 presidential election will be held fairly?
A great deal/Quite a bit: 32%
A moderate amount: 28%
Only a little/None at all: 32%
RON’S COMMENT: Less than a third of voters have “a great deal/quite a bit” of confidence that the election will be held fairly. Interestingly, the gap between Biden and Trump supporters is not that wide––36% of Biden’s voters and 29% of Trump’s voters agree.
VOTE BY MAIL
Among voters nationwide
Do you approve or disapprove of voting by mail?
Approve: 62%
Disapprove: 33%
RON’S COMMENT: Wow, look at this split––92% of Biden’s voters and 29% of Trump’s voters approve of mail voting.
CORONAVIRUS
Among voters nationwide
Economic vs. Public health: Generally speaking, would you say you are more concerned about…
- The economic impact of the coronavirus including the effect on the stock market and increased unemployment: 32%
- The public health impact of coronavirus including the spread of the disease which would cause more deaths: 59%
RON’S COMMENT: Republicans are more concerned about the economic impact and Democrats are more concerned about the public health impact. Boomers are most concerned about public health (66%). African-Americans are more concerned about public health (75%) than Whites (56%).
Social Distancing: Even if neither is exactly correct, which of the following comes closest to your opinion?
- Americans should continue to social distance for as long as is needed to curb the spread of coronavirus even if it means continued damage to the economy: 73%
- Americans should stop social distancing to stimulate the economy even if it means increasing the spread of the coronavirus: 17%
RON’S COMMENT: 55% of Republicans and 91% of Democrats believe social distancing should be continued even if it means damage to the economy.
CENSUS
Among adults nationwide
How much have you heard about the U.S. Census ending all counting efforts early, on September 30th?
A lot/a little: 39%
Not at all: 61%
RON’S COMMENT: 55% of Biden’s voters and only 30% of Trump’s voters say they’ve heard something about it.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PENNSYLVANIA: Morning Call, Aug. 11-17
MINNESOTA: Trafalgar Group (R), Aug. 15-18
NEW HAMPSHIRE: St. Anselm, Aug. 15-17
VOTER ENTHUSIASM, FAIR ELECTION, VOTE BY MAIL, CENSUS: The Economist/YouGov, Aug. 16-18
CORONAVIRUS: Politico/Morning Consult, August 14-16
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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