Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, July 7, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 41%
Same as Thursday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 38% (Gallup) to 45% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 41%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 56% today (same as Thursday), which is 15 points higher than his approval rating…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
NATIONWIDE
Biden over Trump: +12 (53-41)
Average of last four polls: Biden +9.3
RON’S COMMENT: Biden continues with a clear lead. Excerpts from the Monmouth poll report:
- “A key difference from four years ago is that fewer voters have a negative opinion of the Democratic nominee. Biden’s rating stands at 44% favorable and 44% unfavorable. It was 42%–49% in early June. Hillary Clinton’s rating in July 2016 was 34% favorable and 52% unfavorable. Trump currently has a negative 38% favorable and 55% unfavorable opinion. It was 38%–57% in early June. As a candidate four years ago, he held a 31% favorable and 53% unfavorable rating.”
- “Four years ago, Clinton was the insider candidate who approximated an incumbent in many voters’ minds. There is no mistaking who wears that mantle this year. Trump’s problem is that voters who aren’t enamored with either candidate tend to go for change,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
- “Overall, 21% of all registered voters do not have a favorable opinion of either party’s nominee. Trump did well with this ‘double negative’ group in 2016. The National Election Pool exit poll showed him ultimately winning their vote after Clinton held a small edge throughout the campaign. But he is getting swamped among these voters this time around. Biden leads by 55% to 21% among this group.”
IN THE STATES
Maine: Biden +11
In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Trump by 3 points in Maine’s statewide vote. However, Maine is one of two states (along with Nebraska) that allocates some of its electoral votes by Congressional district––and Trump won one of Maine’s two districts last time, giving him one electoral vote to Clinton’s three.
Pennsylvania: Biden +5
Biden’s average lead in Pennsylvania is 6.5 points based on the last four polls.
Florida: Even
Though Biden’s average lead in Florida based on the three previous polls was 6.7 points, this survey has the race tied––lowering Biden’s average lead from the four most recent polls to 5 points.
Texas: Trump +4
Polls have been showing Texas competitive; the average of the last three surveys has Trump ahead by 1.3 points.
Arizona: Trump +4
This poll has Trump leading Arizona by 4 points, a state he carried last time by about the same margin. However, the three previous polls, when averaged, give Biden a 6-point lead in the state. Let’s wait and see whether this new Gravis poll is an outlier or a trend.
VOTING INTENTIONS
Among voters nationwide
What is the likelihood that you might vote for Donald Trump in November – very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?
Certain/Very/Somewhat likely to vote for Trump: 42%
Not at all likely/Not too likely to vote for Trump: 56%
What is the likelihood that you might vote for Joe Biden in November – very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?
Certain/Very/Somewhat likely to vote for Biden: 52%
Not at all likely/Not too likely to vote for Trump: 45%
RON’S COMMENT: 89% of Republicans are likely to vote for Trump, while 93% of Democrats are likely to vote for Biden…. 38% of independents are likely to vote for Trump, while 51% are likely to vote for Biden…. This poll reinforces the notion that the presidential race, at least for now, is more of a referendum on Trump than a choice between candidates.
CANDIDATE MENTAL AND PHYSICAL STAMINA
Among voters nationwide
How confident are you that Donald Trump has the mental and physical stamina necessary to carry out the job of president – very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?
Very/Somewhat confident: 45%
Not too/Not at all confident: 54%
How confident are you that Joe Biden has the mental and physical stamina necessary to carry out the job of president – very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?
Very/Somewhat confident: 52%
Not too/Not at all confident: 45%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows that “mental and physical” concerns, when combined, work against Trump more than they do against Biden.
VIEWS ON POLICE
Among voters nationwide
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of . . . ?
Police officers in the United States
Favorable: 57%
Unfavorable: 35%
Police officers in your community
Favorable: 65%
Unfavorable: 25%
COMMENT: Among all adults, Americans have a higher opinion of police in their local communities than they do for police nationally (65% vs. 57%)…. Also: 73% of whites, 47% of blacks, 50% of Hispanics, 60% of Biden supporters and 87% of Trump supporters have a favorable view of police officers in their local community…. Worth noting: Among registered voters, the favorable rating of police is higher––71% locally and 61% nationally.
Do you think blacks and whites receive equal treatment from the police?
Yes: 24%
No: 62%
Not sure: 15%
COMMENT: Despite high favorability ratings for police, only about a quarter of Americans believe blacks and whites receive equal treatment from the police…. 3% of Biden supporters, 55% of Trump supporters, 27% of whites, 8% blacks and 23% of Hispanics believe there is equal treatment.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
What was the greatest number of seats ever won in the U.S. Senate by the Republican Party, and in what election were they won?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PENNSYLVANIA: Trafalgar Group (R), June 29-July 2
MAINE: PPP (D), July 2-3
FLORIDA: Trafalgar Group (R), June 29-July 2
TEXAS: Univ. of Texas, June 19-29
ARIZONA: Gravis, June 27
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics will continue to publish Tuesdays and Thursdays, but will add special editions when important new data becomes available. We will return to regular daily publication closer to the election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
TRIVIA ANSWER
61. (Republicans had 61 out of 74 Senate seats after the 1868 election, the year U.S. Grant was first elected president.)
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