Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, June 16, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Up 1 from Thursday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 39% (Politico) to 47% (The Hill). Without these extremes it would still be 43%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 56% today (-1 since Thursday), which is 13 points higher than his approval rating…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
MICHIGAN
Biden over Trump: +16 (55-39)
RON’S COMMENT: This new poll is very bad news for Trump. In 2016, he carried Michigan by two-tenths of a point…. According to the survey report, the percentage of voters in the state with “a negative view of Trump as president rose from 56% to 61%, as the percentage of those with a positive view fell from 42% to 38%.”
IOWA
Trump over Biden: +1 (44-43)
RON’S COMMENT: Though Trump still leads Iowa, he won the state in 2016 by nearly 10 points. In the last four presidential elections, the state voted Democratic twice and Republican twice.
ARKANSAS
Trump over Biden: +2 (47-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Trump won Arkansas in 2016 by a gigantic 27-point margin, which is why a poll showing him only 2 points ahead will alarm his campaign.
MISSOURI
Trump over Biden: +8 (51-43)
RON’S COMMENT: An 8-point lead is a solid advantage, but keep in mind Trump won Missouri last time by nearly 19 points.
NEW MEXICO
Biden over Trump: +14 (53-39)
RON’S COMMENT: Republicans had hoped they could turn this blue state red, but this poll shows that will be difficult. Trump lost New Mexico in 2016 by 8 points.
SENATE ELECTION
Among voters statewide
IOWA
Theresa Greenfield (D) over Sen. Joni Ernst (R): +3 (46-43)
RON’S COMMENT: This Des Moines Register poll showing incumbent Ernst running behind is worrisome for Republicans who need to keep this seat. Operatives on both sides expect this race to go down to the wire; they believe the final outcome will depend upon Trump’s strength in the state. From the poll report:
- Ernst’s job approval rating began to drop earlier this year, according to Register polling, falling to 47% in March from 57% a year before. This poll shows her rating at 49% with another 39% disapproving of the job she is doing.
- 45% have a favorable view of Ernst, and 40% are unfavorable. In February 2019, 56% had a favorable view of Ernst and 29% had an unfavorable view.
- Greenfield, a real estate executive who lost a 2018 bid for Congress, is viewed favorably by 41% and unfavorably by 20%.
- Two previous polls taken this month had Democrat Greenfield ahead by 2-3 points.
- Handicappers rate the race lean Republican.
GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION
Among voters statewide
MISSOURI
Gov. Mike Parson (R) over Nicole Galloway (D): +9 (50-41)
RON’S COMMENT: Parson owes part of his lead to independents who favor him 45-41. Handicappers rate the race lean or likely Republican.
BIGGEST CONCERN: HEALTH VS. ECONOMIC
Among voters nationwide
Which one are you most concerned about?
- Protecting Americans from the health effects of the COVID-19 outbreak: 61%
- Protecting Americans from the economic effects of the COVID-19 outbreak: 39%
RON’S COMMENT: 82% of Democrats, 63% of independents and 34% of Republicans say they’re most concerned with the health effects of the COVID-19 outbreak.
BLACK LIVES MATTER
Among voters nationwide
[Does the following slogan] carry a positive or a negative association to you?
Positive: 54%
Neutral: 18%
Negative: 25%
RON’S COMMENT: 77% of Democrats, 50% of independents, 25% of Republicans, 46% of whites, 76% of blacks and 57% of Hispanics say the Black Lives Matter slogan has a positive association for them.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
When was the last time Iowa voted for a losing Republican presidential candidate in a general election?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
MICHIGAN: EPIC-MRA, May 31-June 4
NEW MEXICO: PPP (D), June 12-13
MISSOURI: Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout, June 10-11
IOWA: Des Moines Register/Selzer, June 7-10
ARKANSAS: Talk Business/Hendrix, June 9-10
BIGGEST CONCERN: HEALTH VS. ECONOMIC, BLACK LIVES MATTER: The Economist/YouGov, June 7-9
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics will publish Tuesdays and Thursdays during the weeks ahead, but will add special editions when important new data becomes available. As soon as political polling gears up again, we will return to regular daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
TRIVIA ANSWER
1976. Iowa voted for Gerald Ford over winner Jimmy Carter.
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