Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, March 16, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 46%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as Friday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating…. Intensity: The WSJ/NBC poll has Trump’s job approval at 46%––with 33% “strongly” approve, 13% “somewhat” approve, 8% “somewhat” disapprove and 43% “strongly” disapprove.
LAST NIGHT’S DEBATE
By Ron Faucheux
- Joe Biden did what he needed to do last night. He was strong, clear and direct. He appeared presidential. His promise of a woman VP was unexpected and caught Sanders flat-footed.
- Assuming Biden wins all four primaries tomorrow, as polls suggest, Sanders will have a hard time providing a rationale for staying in the race. There is a strong sense on the part of Democrats that this internal battle needs to end so they can refocus on defeating President Trump. If Sanders’ stays in too long, he risks diminishing his credibility and policy goals.
- Sanders’ supporters want to push Biden further to the left, but an argument can be made that Biden has already allowed himself to drift too far to the left in terms of general election politics.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Biden over Sanders: +29 (61-32-4)
RON’S COMMENT: Biden’s national lead over Sanders keeps getting wider. A month ago in this poll, Sanders was leading Biden by 12 points. Now Biden is winning by 29 points. Quite a turnaround.
ARIZONA: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic primary voters statewide
Biden over Sanders: +20 (51-31-1)
RON’S COMMENT: According to this poll, Biden has a big lead in Arizona. Sanders wins Latino voters (48-41) and voters under 50 (56-28), but Biden wins whites (55-26) and voters over 50 (64-16). The primary is tomorrow and 67 delegates are at stake.
ARIZONA: SENATE
Among voters statewide
Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +6 (50-44)
RON’S COMMENT: In one of the nation’s hottest Senate elections, Democrat Kelly leads Republican incumbent McSally, who was appointed to the seat after Sen. John McCain died. Kelly has a net positive rating of 41% favorable/17% unfavorable. McSally is net negative at 35% favorable/39% unfavorable. Her job rating, though, leans slightly positive: 42% approve/39% disapprove.
CORONAVIRUS
Among voters nationwide
In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the coronavirus?
Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 51%
How much confidence do you have in_____ to deal with the outbreak of the coronavirus––a great deal, a fair amount, not very much, or no confidence at all?
% = Total Confidence
Your state government: 75%
Your local government: 72%
The federal government: 62%
Donald Trump: 48%
Thinking about what, if any, impact the coronavirus has had on you and your family’s day to day life, would you say it has––changed your life in a very major way, a fairly major way, only a small way or has it not changed your life in any way?
Changed your life in a very major way: 8%
A fairly major way: 18%
Only a small way: 45%
Has not changed your life in any way: 29%
THE ECONOMY
Among voters nationwide
How would you rate the current state of the economy? Would you say it is excellent, good, only fair, or poor?
Excellent/Good: 47%
Only fair/Poor: 52%
RON’S COMMENT: Good feelings on the economy are subsiding––down 6 points from December, when 53% said the economy was excellent or good.
PERSONAL INVESTMENTS
Among voters nationwide
Do you have money invested in the stock market or mutual funds, including IRAs and 401(k)s?
Yes, have money invested: 60%
No, no money invested/not sure: 40%
[ASKED OF THOSE WHO ANSWERED “YES”] And is the value of these investments above or below fifty thousand dollars?
Above $50,000: 54%
Below $50,000: 38%
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION, CORONAVIRUS, THE ECONOMY, PERSONAL INVESTMENTS: March 11-13
ARIZONA: Monmouth, March 11-14
NOTE TO SUBSCRIBERS: If you ever stop receiving Lunchtime Politics, check your spam or junk folders. Sometimes, for mysterious reasons, the newsletter may re-route to there. Please know that we will never take you off our subscriber list unless you ask us to do so.
Follow here to get the latest updates on the Lunchtime Politics.
Be the first to comment