Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, March 4, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (IBD-TIPP) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it’s 46%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.
THE THREE-DAY TURNAROUND
By Ron Faucheux
One is tempted to declare the Democratic nomination race over. Without much money and organization, Joe Biden benefitted from a remarkable turnaround in just three days.
Yesterday, Biden won 10 states. A week ago, he would have been lucky to have won four or five. The polls we reported earlier this week showed such a sudden shift that they were hard to believe.
Over the last three days, Biden broke Sanders’ momentum. He rallied a big chunk of the party around him. It was the strongest late-breaking, multi-primary surge we’ve ever seen. The only thing that limited its extent were the early votes cast before the surge began. Biden’s support among African American Democrats provided a foundation that no rival could fracture.
Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar are also winners. They got out just in time and can share the credit for Biden’s Super Tuesday wins. Michael Bloomberg was wise withdrawing quickly. He had real momentum until the first debate, which broke the spell. Biden’s comeback blocked Bloomberg’s remaining path. Now, the former New York City mayor can play a decisive role supporting Biden’s campaign.
Elizabeth Warren has yet to win any states. She lost her home state of Massachusetts, running third. What else is there to say?
While Bernie Sanders has lost momentum, and will have a tough struggle regaining it, he still has significant strengths––a boat load of pledged delegates and, most importantly, the heart and soul of the progressive left. Over the last week, Democrats stared the possibility of a Sanders-Trump race in its face, and they were terrified. The Vermont senator’s comments about Communist authoritarian regimes, for many voters, was the last straw. The potential threat his nomination posed to down ballot Democrats motivated party cognoscenti to act.
The media precipitously declared Sanders the frontrunner after Nevada on the basis of a single caucus victory and two near ties in Iowa and New Hampshire. In truth, the race was in transition without a frontrunner. The kaleidoscope was turning and voters were deciding. The manic need to always have a frontrunner, no matter the situation, is a practice that should end.
There are still votes to be cast and delegates to be won––and Sanders remains a serious player. But, his road to the nomination is narrow and bumpy. It’s Biden’s race to lose.
WHAT’S NEXT?
Primary schedule
March 10
- Michigan––125 delegates
- Washington state––89 delegates
- Missouri––68 delegates
- Mississippi––36 delegates
- Idaho––20 delegates
- North Dakota caucuses––14 delegates
March 17
- Florida––219 delegates
- Illinois––155 delegates
- Ohio––136 delegates
- Arizona––67 delegates
MICHIGAN: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic primary voters statewide
Joe Biden: 29%
Bernie Sanders: 23%
Michael Bloomberg: 11%
Elizabeth Warren: 7%
Pete Buttigieg: 6%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
RON’S COMMENT: This Michigan poll, taken over the last five days, shows Biden on top in a “must win” state for Sanders. The poll includes three candidates who have since withdrawn, which limits its usefulness. Michigan votes March 10 and has 125 delegates.
NORTH CAROLINA: PRESIDENT
Among general election voters statewide
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +2 (48-46)
Donald Trump over Bernie Sanders: +5 (48-43)
Donald Trump over Elizabeth Warren: +8 (49-41)
RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads Trump in North Carolina, but Trump leads Sanders and Warren. In 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by nearly 4 points in North Carolina. The state has voted Republican in nine of the last ten presidential elections. This poll was taken before Super Tuesday.
SENATE: TEXAS
Among voters statewide
General election
Sen. John Cornyn (R) over M.J. Hegar (D): +8 (49-41)
RON’S COMMENT: Senate incumbent Cornyn leads for re-election. Challenger Hegar wins fellow Democrats 88-5 and independents 44-36. Cornyn leads fellow Republicans 93-4.
GOVERNOR: NORTH CAROLINA
Among voters statewide
General election
Gov. Roy Cooper (D) over Dan Forest (R): +8 (49-41)
RON’S COMMENT: Cooper posts a lead over challenger Forest in this East Carolina Univ. poll. Democrat Cooper is completing his first term as governor and Republican Forest is the current lieutenant governor. Handicappers rate the general election lean or tilt Democratic.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NORTH CAROLINA: ECU, Feb. 27-28
TEXAS: NBC/Marist, Feb. 23-27
MICHIGAN: Feb. 28-March 3
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