Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, March 3, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on three polls, ranging from 44% (YouGov) to 47% (Fox, Rasmussen) …. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (-2 from yesterday), which is 5 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Bernie Sanders: 29%
Joe Biden: 26%
Michael Bloomberg: 17%
Elizabeth Warren: 11%
Pete Buttigieg: 10%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This is the latest national poll of Democratic voters––taken Sunday, March 1––and it shows Biden is the only candidate moving up. The poll was taken before Buttigieg and Klobuchar endorsed Biden…. Note that Bloomberg is in third place and Warren is fourth…. Compared to the same poll conducted Feb. 23-27:
- Biden shot up 7 points.
- Sanders is down 3 points.
- Bloomberg is down 1 point.
- Warren is the same.
SUPER TUESDAY PRIMARIES
Among Democratic primary voters in each state
RON’S COMMENT: The kaleidoscope has turned. The latest round of polling shows a big shift to Biden. In today’s polls, Biden leads seven Super Tuesday states, Sanders leads six and Warren leads one.
- Biden is now winning Texas and Virginia, two important states that were in the Sanders column just a few days ago. Biden has closed some of the gap in California and leads North Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama and Oklahoma. He’s also in contention for Massachusetts, where he’s tied with Sanders for a close second place.
- Besides California, Sanders is winning Minnesota, a plus for him since Klobuchar dropped out; Colorado; Maine; Utah; and Vermont, his home state.
- Warren leads home state Massachusetts. She runs second in Colorado and ties Biden for second in Vermont.
- Bloomberg doesn’t come in first or second anywhere. He’s third in California, Texas, North Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama and Oklahoma.
- It should be noted that most of these polls were conducted by Data for Progress and some were conducted by Change Research and Civitas.
STATES WHERE BIDEN LEADS
Texas
Biden 30%, Sanders 28%, Bloomberg 20%, Warren 15%
Virginia
(Change Res.) Biden 45%, Sanders 25%, Warren 13%, Bloomberg 10%
(DFP) Biden 39%, Sanders 24%, Bloomberg 18%, Warren 17%
Average: Biden 42%, Sanders 24.5%, Warren 15%, Bloomberg 14%
North Carolina
(Civitas) Biden 45%, Sanders 18%, Bloomberg 11%, Warren 7%
(DFP) Biden 36%, Sanders 27%, Bloomberg 18%, Warren 14%
Average: Biden 40.5%, Sanders 22.5%, Bloomberg 14.5%, Warren 10.5%
Tennessee
Biden 34%, Sanders 27%, Bloomberg 20%, Warren 15%
Alabama
Biden 47%, Sanders 22%, Bloomberg 18%, Warren 12%
Arkansas
Biden 36%, Sanders 23%, Bloomberg 22%, Warren 15%
Oklahoma
Biden 35%, Sanders 28%, Bloomberg 19%, Warren 16%
STATES WHERE SANDERS LEADS
California
Sanders 32%, Biden 25%, Bloomberg 17%, Warren 16%
Minnesota
Sanders 32%, Biden 27%, Warren 21%, Bloomberg 16%
Colorado
Sanders 32%, Warren 21%, Biden 18%, Bloomberg 16%
Utah
Sanders 29%, Biden 23%, Warren 19%, Bloomberg 17%
Maine
(Change Res.) Sanders 34%, Biden 25%, Warren 20%, Bloomberg 18%
(DFP) Sanders 43%, Biden 24%, Warren 16%, Bloomberg 10%
Average: Sanders 38.5%, Biden 24.5%, Warren 18%, Bloomberg 14%
Vermont
Sanders 57%, Biden 16%, Warren 16%, Bloomberg 8%
STATE WHERE WARREN LEADS
Massachusetts
Warren 28%, Sanders 26%, Biden 26%, Bloomberg 15%
SENATE: MASSACHUSETTS
Among voters statewide
Democratic primary
Joe Kennedy over Sen. Ed Markey: +6 (42-36)
RON’S COMMENT: Kennedy, a member of the U.S. House and grandson of RFK, maintains a lead over Senate Democratic incumbent Markey in the Sept. 1 primary. Markey won the seat in 2013 when former Sen. John Kerry became Secretary of State.
- A UMass Lowell poll two weeks ago had Kennedy edging Markey by only one point, 35-34.
- Last September, Kennedy led Markey 42-28.
- From the poll report: “One clear sign of strength for Kennedy’s campaign: likely Senate primary voters see Kennedy as a far stronger opponent against President Trump. Asked who would be more of an adversary against Trump, 41 percent of voters said Kennedy, while 22 percent said Markey. Both men have pitched themselves to voters as the best equipped to stand up to the president, who is unpopular in Massachusetts.”
- Handicappers rate the general election solid Democratic.
SENATE: NORTH CAROLINA
Among voters statewide
General election
ECU poll: Sen. Thom Tillis (R) over Cal Cunningham (D): +2 (44-42)
NBC poll: Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R) +5 (48-43)
RON’S COMMENT: This is one of the Senate races to watch. As you can see, incumbent Tillis is in a tough fight with likely Democratic nominee Cunningham. The ECU poll has Tillis slightly ahead, but the NBC/Marist poll has Cunningham on top. Handicappers rate the general election tossup or lean Republican.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Who is the longest-tenured U.S. House member ever elected to the U.S. Senate, with 36-plus years of House service before moving to the upper chamber?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Morning Consult, March 1
MASSACHUSETTS SENATE: Suffolk/Boston Globe/WBZ, Feb. 25-28
NORTH CAROLINA SENATE: East Carolina Univ., Feb. 27-28; NBC/Marist, Feb. 23-27
STATE PRIMARIES:
CALIFORNIA: Data for Progress (D), Feb. 28-March 2
MINNESOTA: Data for Progress(D), Feb. 28-March 2
COLORADO: Data for Progress(D), Feb. 28-March 2
UTAH: Data for Progress(D), Feb. 28-March 2
MAINE: Data for Progress(D), Feb. 28-March 2; Change Research, March 1-2
TEXAS: Data for Progress(D), Feb. 28-March 2
VIRGINIA: Data for Progress(D), Feb. 28-March 2; Change Research, March 1-2
NORTH CAROLINA: Data for Progress(D), Feb. 28-March 2; Civitas, March 1-2
TENNESSEE: Data for Progress(D), Feb. 28-March 2
ALABAMA: Data for Progress(D), Feb. 28-March 2
ARKANSAS: Data for Progress(D), Feb. 28-March 2
OKLAHOMA: Data for Progress(D), Feb. 28-March 2
MASSACHUSETTS: Data for Progress (D), Feb. 28-March 2
VERMONT: Data for Progress (D), Feb. 28-March 2
TRIVIA ANSWER
Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA). He served in the U.S. House from 1976 to 2013 before he became a U.S. senator in 2013.
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