Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, February 11, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 43% (Quinnipiac) to 49% (The Hill, Rasmussen). The fourth poll has it at 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 5 points higher than his approval rating…. Keep in mind that 46% approval matches Trump’s 2016 popular vote.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
% = Quinnipiac / Morning Consult = Average
Bernie Sanders: 25%/25% = 25
Joe Biden: 17%/22% = 19.5
Michael Bloomberg: 15%/17% = 16
Elizabeth Warren: 14%/11% = 12.5
Pete Buttigieg: 10%/11% = 10.5
Amy Klobuchar: 4%/3% = 3.5
Andrew Yang: 2%/4% = 3
Tom Steyer: 1%/3% = 2
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: …. These two post-Iowa national polls show Sanders overtaking Biden. And––as Biden fades, Bloomberg gains. With a 16% average vote, this is Bloomberg’s best showing yet––putting the former New York mayor ahead of Warren, Buttigieg and Klobuchar and running close to the former frontrunner, Biden…. More eye-popping data from the Quinnipiac poll:
- Biden has lost his big advantage among black Democrats. He beats Bloomberg among blacks by only a small margin, 27-22. Sanders is close behind at 19% and Warren is fourth at 8%.
- Biden has lost his big electability advantage: Only 27% of Democrats say Biden has the best chance to beat Trump. That’s down from 44% just two weeks ago. On electability, Sanders comes in a close second, at 24%, and Bloomberg is third at 17%.
- Biden’s base among centrist Democrats is dissipating. He and Bloomberg are about tied among moderates (22% vs. 21%).
- Sanders is winning the battle for the progressive left. He beats Warren among the most liberal Democrats by 44-27.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic primary voters statewide
Bernie Sanders: 29%
Pete Buttigieg: 22%
Joe Biden: 11%
Elizabeth Warren: 10%
Amy Klobuchar: 7%
Tulsi Gabbard: 5%
Andrew Yang: 4%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Caveat––this CNN poll from New Hampshire was conducted Thursday to Sunday, which means some of the interviews do not reflect reactions to Friday’s debate. It also doesn’t reflect any of yesterday’s activities. The two tracking polls we reported yesterday were conducted Saturday and Sunday, making the samples more recent.
Among voters nationwide
Michael Bloomberg over Donald Trump: +9 (51-42)
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +8 (51-43)
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +7 (50-43)
Elizabeth Warren over Donald Trump: +4 (48-44)
Pete Buttigieg over Donald Trump: +4 (47-43)
RON’S COMMENT: More good news for Bloomberg––he’s doing best against Trump. This Quinnipiac poll is also good for Sanders, he does better against Trump than does Biden, who was once Mr. Electability. Keep in mind that Quinnipiac polls often show Democrats doing better than others polls do.
Who was the only incumbent president to lose the New Hampshire presidential primary?
(see answer below)
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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Quinnipiac, Feb. 5-9; Morning Consult, Feb. 4-9
NEW HAMPSHIRE: CNN/UNH, Feb. 6-9
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT: Quinnipiac, Feb. 5-9
Harry Truman. He was the only incumbent president to lose the New Hampshire primary. In 1952, Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN) defeated President Truman 55-44 in the primary. Thereafter, Truman abandoned re-election plans.
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