Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, January 28, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters) to 50% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 46%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (same as yesterday), which is 5 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT
Among voters nationwide
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +4 (50-46)
Michael Bloomberg over Donald Trump: +3 (49-46)
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +2 (49-47)
Amy Klobuchar over Donald Trump: +1 (48-47)
Elizabeth Warren and Donald Trump: even (48-48)
Donald Trump over Pete Buttigieg: +3 (48-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Biden and Bloomberg do best against Trump, although Sanders and Klobuchar also beat him. Note that Trump’s vote ranges between 46% and 48% (in 2016 he received 46%).
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 29%
Bernie Sanders: 23%
Elizabeth Warren: 14%
Michael Bloomberg: 12%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Andrew Yang: 5%
Tom Steyer: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows Biden and Sanders on top nationally, with Bloomberg closing in on Warren for third place.
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES & CAUCUSES
Among Democratic voters in each state
California Primary
Bernie Sanders: 26%
Elizabeth Warren: 20%
Joe Biden: 15%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Michael Bloomberg: 6%
Amy Klobuchar: 5%
Andrew Yang: 4%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This California primary poll has Sanders first and Warren second. Biden runs third and Bloomberg draws only 6% despite a large ad expenditure. But… there is time for a lot of fluctuation. The primary is March 3 and 415 delegates are at stake.
Utah Primary
Bernie Sanders: 27%
Elizabeth Warren: 14%
Joe Biden: 12%
Michael Bloomberg: 10%
Pete Buttigieg: 5%
Andrew Yang: 5%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Sanders leads the Utah primary with the next three candidates bunched together in this poll, which has a small sample. Utah votes March 3 and has 29 delegates.
GOVERNOR: UTAH 2020 GOP PRIMARY
Among Republican voters statewide
Republican Primary
Jon Huntsman: 26%
Spencer Cox: 18%
Greg Hughes: 7%
Others: 3%
RON’S COMMENT: Former GOP Gov. Huntsman (2005-09) is trying to regain his old job. Since he left the governorship, he’s been ambassador to China (2009-2011) and Russia (2017-19) and a presidential contender (2012). Cox is lieutenant governor and Hughes is a former House speaker…. Though Huntsman is polling almost as many votes as his opponents combined, nearly half the Republican primary electorate is undecided. Incumbent Gov.Gary Herbert (R) is not running.
TRUMP REMOVAL
Among voters nationwide
Do you think the Senate should or not remove Trump from office?
Should remove: 45%
Should not remove: 51%
RON’S COMMENT: The percentage of voters who want to remove Trump (45%) falls below the percentage of voters who did not vote for him in 2016 (54%) or who voted for Hillary Clinton (48%)…. By demos: 83% of Democrats, 9% of Republicans, 42% of independents, 37% of men, 56% of women, 39% of whites and 80% of blacks want to remove the president.
SATISFACTION RATINGS
Among U.S. adults nationwide
% = satisfied
- The overall quality of life: 84%
- The nation’s military strength and preparedness: 81%
- The opportunity for a person to get ahead by working hard: 72%
- The nation’s security from terrorism: 68%
- The state of the nation’s economy: 68%
- The position of women in the nation 63%
- The acceptance of gays and lesbians in the nation: 56%
- The quality of medical care in the nation: 52%
- The nation’s policies to reduce or control crime: 47%
- The position of blacks and other racial minorities in the nation: 46%
- The quality of the environment in the nation: 46%
- The nation’s energy policies: 44%
- The Social Security and Medicare systems: 43%
- The way income and wealth are distributed in the U.S.: 43%
- Our system of government and how well it works: 43%
- The role the U.S. plays in world affairs: 43%
- The nation’s laws or policies on guns: 42%
- The size and influence of major corporations: 41%
- Government regulation of businesses and industries: 41%
- The size and power of the federal government: 38%
- The amount Americans pay in federal taxes: 37%
- The availability of affordable healthcare: 37%
- The state of race relations: 36%
- The level of immigration into the country today: 35%
- The quality of public education in the nation: 35%
- The moral and ethical climate: 32%
- The nation’s policies regarding the abortion issue: 32%
- The nation’s campaign finance laws: 23%
- The nation’s efforts to deal with poverty and homelessness: 22%
RON’S COMMENT: Americans are broadly satisfied with overall quality of life, opportunity for a person to get ahead and the nation’s economy. But, they’re broadly dissatisfied with the moral and ethical climate, race relations, immigration, federal taxes, availability of affordable healthcare, the way income and wealth are distributed, our system of government and how it works, the size and power of the federal government and efforts to deal with poverty and homelessness. This is a very important list for presidential candidates to keep in mind.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
In the 2008 Iowa Democratic caucus, which candidate ran second?
(See answer below)
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SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT, TRUMP REMOVAL: Washington Post/ABC, Jan. 20-23
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Morning Consult, Jan. 20-26
CALIFORNIA: BerkeleyIGS, Jan. 15-21
UTAH: Salt Lake Tribune/Suffolk, Jan. 18-22
SATISFACTION RATINGS: Gallup, Jan. 2-5
TRIVIA ANSWER
John Edwards.
Barack Obama was first (38%), Edwards second (30%) and Hillary Clinton third (29%).
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