Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, January 16, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters) to 51% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as yesterday), which is 7 points higher than his approval rating.
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GENERAL ELECTION: PRESIDENT
Among voters in each state
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +4 (49-45)
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +1 (47-46)
Donald Trump over Pete Buttigieg: +2 (46-44)
Donald Trump over Elizabeth Warren: +3 (48-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Wisconsin is a critical swing state that Trump carried by seven-tenths of a point in 2016. This poll shows a close contest for November, with Biden doing best against Trump. Wisconsin has voted Democratic in seven of the last eight presidential elections…. Trump’s job rating is 48% approve/49% disapprove in this poll. Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is 51% approve/40% disapprove.
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +6 (53-47)
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +2 (51-49)
Elizabeth Warren over Donald Trump: +2 (51-49)
Pete Buttigieg over Donald Trump: even (50-50)
RON’S COMMENT: Florida is the king of swing states. In the last six presidential elections, it voted Democratic three times and Republican three times. Trump won it in 2016 by about a point. This FAU poll shows Sanders doing best against Trump, which has raised eyebrows among some skeptical Democratic operatives…. Trump’s job rating is 45% approve/43% disapprove in this poll. GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis is 48% approve/28% disapprove.
Michael Bloomberg over Donald Trump: +7 (49-42)
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +6 (50-44)
Bernie Sanders over Donald Trump: +5 (50-45)
Pete Buttigieg over Donald Trump: +4 (47-43)
Elizabeth Warren over Donald Trump: +3 (48-45)
RON’S COMMENT: These numbers from Michigan are bad news for Trump and good news for several Democrats, especially Bloomberg. Trump won the state by two-tenths of a point in 2016. Before Trump’s victory, Michigan had voted Democratic in the six previous presidential elections…. Trump’s personal rating is 41% favorable/54% unfavorable in this poll.
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES & CAUCUSES
Among Democratic voters in each state
Joe Biden: 42%
Bernie Sanders: 16%
Elizabeth Warren: 10%
Michael Bloomberg: 7%
Amy Klobuchar: 6%
Andrew Yang: 5%
Pete Buttigieg: 3%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden holds a big lead in Florida’s March 17th primary, a state with 219 delegates. But: 54% of Sunshine State Democrats say they could still change their mind.
Joe Biden: 23%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Elizabeth Warren: 14%
Pete Buttigieg: 15%
Michael Bloomberg: 6%
Andrew Yang: 6%
Amy Klobuchar: 4%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden posts a modest lead over Sanders in Wisconsin, which has 77 delegates and an April 7th primary.
Among voters nationwide
Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Trump is handling Iran?
RON’S COMMENT: This represents a 4-point improvement for Trump since last week when his numbers were 43% approve/53% disapprove.
Do you approve or disapprove of the U.S. airstrike in Iraq that killed Qassim Suleimani, a top Iranian general?
RON’S COMMENT: Most voters approve of the Suliemani killing––including 85% of Republicans, 45% of independents and 16% of Democrats. Approval for the action has risen 3 points since last week.
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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
IRAN ACTION: The Economist/YouGov, Jan. 11-14
FLORIDA: Florida Atlantic Univ., Jan. 9-12
WISCONSIN: Marquette, Jan. 8-12
MICHIGAN: EPIC/MRA, Jan. 9-12
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