Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, December 17, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Since Friday, President Trump’s job rating has gone up 3 points. Looks like the impeachment process may be helping him. Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 43% (Quinnipiac) to 48% (USA Today, Rasmussen). The fourth poll has it at 44%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 5 points higher than his approval rating.
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Among voters nationwide
Joe Biden over Donald Trump: +5 (50-45)
Pete Buttigieg over Donald Trump: +2 (46-44)
Michael Bloomberg over Donald Trump: +1 (47-46)
Donald Trump over Bernie Sander: +1 (48-47)
Donald Trump over Elizabeth Warren: +5 (49-44)
RON’S COMMENT: Is this more evidence that impeachment is helping Trump’s re-election? In October, Biden was beating Trump by 7 points in this poll, now he’s beating him by 5. In October, Warren was beating the president by 2 points, now she’s losing to him by 5 points. In October, Sanders was beating Trump by 3 points, now he’s losing to the incumbent by 1 point…. Trump’s current polling vs. 2016 performance: Against Biden and Buttigieg, Trump is now polling less than the actual popular votes he received in the 2016 election, which was 46%. Against Warren and Sanders, Trump is now exceeding his 2016 performance (by 2 or 3 points). Against Bloomberg, he’s the same.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
% = Politico/Quinnipiac/NPR, PBS/IBD = Average
Joe Biden: 31%/30%/24%/26% = 27.8
Bernie Sanders: 22%/16%/22%/18% = 19.5
Elizabeth Warren: 15%/17%/17%/14% = 15.8
Pete Buttigieg: 8%/9%/13%/9% = 9.8
Michael Bloomberg: 7%/7%/4%/5% = 5.8
Andrew Yang: 4%/3%/5%/2% = 3.5
Cory Booker: 3%/2%/4%/3% = 3
Amy Klobuchar: 2%/3%/4%/2% = 2.8
Tom Steyer: 3%/1%/-/2% = 1.5
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%/1%/1%/1% = 1.3
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: A lot of new polls today. Based on our average, Biden continues in first place, Sanders is second and Warren is third. Buttigieg is holding his vote but hasn’t caught fire nationally. Bloomberg has moved up over the past two weeks, but not dramatically. He’s at 7% in two polls. Klobuchar shows a little life in the PBS/NPR poll…. Since the IBD/TIPP poll last month, Biden dropped 3 points, Sanders climbed 5 points and Warren fell 9 points…. The Quinnipiac poll finds that:
- Bloomberg polls 7% of both whites and blacks. Overall, he’s up 2 points since last week. He’s stronger with voters 50 and older than with those under 50. He does much better with Democratic leaners (12%) than with solid Democrats (6%). Expect him to turn out independents in primaries that allow non-Democrats to vote.
- Warren leads the most liberal Democrats 35-26 over Sanders. She also leads Biden among white Democrats with college degrees, 24-18.
- Biden wins moderates over Sanders: 38-10. Biden also runs first with both men (26%) and women (33%).
- Buttigieg polls 13% of whites and 2% of blacks in this poll. He does much better among women than men (11% vs. 6%). He also does better among white college grads (16%) than non-college whites (9%)––which makes him nearly as much of a threat to Warren as to Biden.
- If Sanders got out of the race, 50% of his vote goes to Warren.
- If Warren got out of the race, 34% of her vote goes to Sanders.
- If Biden got out of the race, 26% of his vote goes to Warren, 15% to Sanders, 12% to Bloomberg and 11% to Buttigieg.
- If Buttigieg got out of the race, most of his votes go to Biden and Warren.
IMPEACHMENT & REMOVAL
Among voters nationwide
Do you think that President Trump should be impeached and removed from office, or don’t you think so?
Yes/impeach & remove: 45%
Don’t know: 4%
RON’S COMMENT: Support for impeachment and removal is down 3 points in the Quinnipiac poll from three weeks ago, when 48% supported it…. 5% of Republicans, 86% of Democrats and 36% of independents now want Trump impeached and removed. And: 92% of Republicans, 88% of Democrats and 82% of independents say they do not think they will change their minds on the issue.
Among Democrats nationwide
President Trump has made allegations about Joe Biden and his son’s business dealings in Ukraine and China. How troubling do you find those allegations––extremely, very, somewhat, or not at all?
Extremely/very troubling: 37%
Somewhat troubling: 24%
Not at all troubling: 30%
RON’S COMMENT: Those saying the allegations are extremely/very troubling has increased by 1 point since October.
Among African American Democrats nationwide
Joe Biden: 44%
Bernie Sanders: 15%
Elizabeth Warren: 11%
Cory Booker: 5%
Pete Buttigieg: 3%
Michael Bloomberg: 3%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Tom Steyer: 2%
Deval Patrick: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden holds a big lead among black Democrats who are likely to vote in primaries. Biden does a good bit better among black women than black men…. Booker is the only remaining black candidate and he’s polling only 5%…. This survey for BlackPAC also finds that African Americans support progressive policies such as free tuition to public colleges (76%), a new wealth taxon the very rich (73%), reparations (71%), Medicare for All (65%) and a Green New Deal (57%).
Michael Bloomberg was elected mayor for three successive terms (12 years). He tied three other former New York City mayors for the longest serving. Who were those three mayors (hint: all served in the 20th century)?
(See answer below)
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Quinnipiac Dec . 11-15, NPR/PBS/Marist Dec. 9-11, IBD/TIPP Dec. 5-14, Politico/Morning Consult, Dec. 9-15
IMPEACHMENT & REMOVAL; Quinnipiac, Dec. 11-15
BIDEN ALLEGATIONS: Fox News, Dec. 8-11
BLACK DEMOCRATS: BlackPAC, Normington Petts, Nov. 21-27
When poll results add up to more than 100%, it is usually due to rounding.
L = Libertarian candidate
G = Green Party candidate
Ind = independent candidate
O = Other candidate(s)
D poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Democrats.
R poll = conducted by or for organizations generally associated with Republicans.
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Fiorello LaGuardia (1934-45), Robert F. Wagner (1954-65) and Ed Koch (1978-89).