Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, November 4, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Up 1 from Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 39% (WaPo/ABC) to 46% (Harris, Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (-1 from Friday), which is 11 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: PRESIDENT
Among voters nationwide
Fox News Poll:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +12 (51-39)
Bernie Sanders (I/D) over Donald Trump (R): +8 (49-41)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +5 (46-41)
Hillary Clinton (D) over Donald Trump (R): +2 (43-41)
Pete Buttigieg (D) and Donald Trump (R): even (41-41)
RON’S COMMENT: The Fox News poll shows the four best-known Democrats beating Trump, with Biden doing best. Buttigieg ties the president…. Voter interest: 63% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans are “extremely interested” in the election.
WSJ/NBC poll:
Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +9 (50-41)
Elizabeth Warren (D) over Donald Trump (R): +8 (50-42)
RON’S COMMENT: The WSJ/NBC poll shows both Biden and Warren beating Trump by similar margins. That’s better for Warren than most other surveys.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
% = WSJ/NBC, WaPo/ABC, Fox News = Average
Joe Biden: 27% / 28% / 31% = 28.7
Elizabeth Warren: 23% / 23% / 21% = 22.3
Bernie Sanders: 19% / 17% / 19% = 18.3
Pete Buttigieg: 6% / 9% / 7% = 7.3
Amy Klobuchar: 5% / 2% / 2% = 3
Kamala Harris: 4% / 2% / 3% = 3
Andrew Yang: 3% / 2% / 3% = 2.7
Tulsi Gabbard: 2% / 2% / 2% = 2
Cory Booker: 2% / 2% / 2% = 2
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: In all three of today’s polls, Biden continues to lead the Democratic field nationally. It appears that we can officially declare that Warren’s momentum––which was pretty hot a month ago––has halted. We have to see where it goes from here, but she clearly remains in contention despite the slump…. In the WSJ/NBC poll, Biden is down 4 points, Warren is down 2 points, Sanders is up 5 points since their mid-September survey…. In the ABC/WaPo poll, Biden is down 1, Warren is up 5 and Sanders is down 2 since their early September survey…. In the Fox News poll, Biden is down 1, Warren is down 1 and Sanders is up 2 from early October…. Also in the Fox News poll:
- Electability: 68% of Democrats think Biden can beat Trump, 57% think Warren can, 54% say Sanders can and only 30% say Buttigieg can.
- Issue agreement: 72% of Democrats say Biden shares their views on the issues––68% say Sanders, 62% say Warren and 43% say Buttigieg does, too. Warren had previously led many polls on policy issues. In this one, she’s third.
- If Michelle Obama gets into the nomination race: 50% of Democrats say they would definitely vote for her and 8% say they would never vote for her.
- If Hillary Clinton gets into the nomination race: 27% of Democrats say they would definitely vote for het and 30% say they would never vote for her.
- If Michael Bloomberg gets into the nomination race: 6% of Democrats say they would definitely vote for him and 32% say they would never vote for him.
NATIONAL: REPUBLICAN NOMINATION
Among Republican voters nationwide
Trump re-nomination findings:
- In early October, 77% of Republican voters said they wanted Donald Trump to be their 2020 presidential nominee and 17% said they wanted someone else.
- In late October, 78% of Republican voters say they want Donald Trump to be their 2020 presidential nominee and 15% said they want someone else.
RON’S COMMENT: Trump’s re-nomination support among Republicans remains overwhelming and stable, and has even risen slightly over the last month while the impeachment controversy has raged.
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES & CAUCUSES
Among Democratic primary/caucus voters in each state
Michigan Primary
Joe Biden: 34%
Bernie Sanders: 28%
Elizabeth Warren: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 8%
Kamala Harris: 3%
Cory Booker: 3%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads and Sanders is second.
Nevada Caucus
Joe Biden: 30%
Elizabeth Warren: 22%
Bernie Sanders: 19%
Pete Buttigieg: 5%
Andrew Yang: 5%
Kamala Harris: 5%
Tom Steyer: 3%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads and Warren is second. Compared to another poll taken a month ago, Biden and Warren are up and Sanders is down.
IMPEACHMENT & REMOVAL
Among voters nationwide
Do you think President Trump should be impeached and removed from office, or not?
Yes: 49%
No: 45%
RON’S COMMENT: Support for impeachment and removal edges out opposition, but is under 50%. 47% of whites with a college degree favor impeachment and removal compared to 36% without a degree. 25% of white evangelicals support impeachment and removal.
NEW EVIDENCE: [Asked of those against impeachment] Is there a chance new evidence could make you support impeaching President Trump or is there nothing that would cause you to support impeachment?
New evidence could make you support impeachment: 34%
Nothing would cause you to support impeachment: 57%
RON’S COMMENT: Of those who oppose impeachment, 57% are firm in their stance, but just over a third say new evidence could shift their opinion. Voters under 45 (38%), suburban voters (43%) and whites with a college degree (37%) are most likely to say new evidence could change their position.
ASKING FOR FOREIGN HELP: In general, is it appropriate for President Trump to ask leaders of foreign countries to investigate allegations against political rivals, or not?
Appropriate: 27%
Not appropriate: 64%
RON’S COMMENT: Slightly more than a quarter of Americans believe asking foreign countries to investigate political rivals is appropriate. 54% of Republicans and 46% of conservatives hold that view. 35% of rural whites, 35% of whites without a college degree, 37% of union households and 36% of white men support that position.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENT: Fox News, Oct. 27-30
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: WSJ/NBC, WaPo/ABC, Fox News, Oct. 27-30
NATIONAL: REPUBLICAN NOMINATION: Fox News, Oct. 27-30
MICHIGAN, NEVADA: Emerson, Oct. 31-Nov. 2
IMPEACHMENT: Fox News, Oct. 27-30
Follow here to get the latest updates on the Lunchtime Politics.
Be the first to comment