Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, October 30, 2019
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Up 2 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 9 points higher than his approval rating.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Among Democratic voters nationwide
Joe Biden: 27%
Elizabeth Warren: 23%
Bernie Sanders: 14%
Pete Buttigieg: 7%
Kamala Harris: 4%
Beto O’Rourke: 4%
Andrew Yang: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: Since last week’s poll from The Economist, Biden is up 3 points, Warren stays steady, Sanders is down 2 and Buttigieg is down 1.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Among Democratic primary voters statewide
Bernie Sanders: 21%
Elizabeth Warren: 18%
Joe Biden: 15%
Pete Buttigieg: 10%
Tulsi Gabbard: 5%
Amy Klobuchar: 5%
Andrew Yang: 5%
Tom Steyer: 3%
Kamala Harris: 3%
Beto O’Rourke: 2%
Cory Booker: 2%
Candidates with 1% or less not listed
RON’S COMMENT: This New Hampshire poll puts Warren in second place, previous polling had her running first. Biden’s performance, at 15%, is below lackluster. Sanders hangs in. But, notice that the numbers for all three top candidates are relatively low, with lower placed candidates showing a little life.
IMPEACHMENT
Among voters nationwide
Which of the following is your personal preference?
The House of Representatives should vote to impeach President Trump: 36%
The House should continue investigating Trump, but not vote to impeach him: 22%
Congress should drop its investigations into President Trump and administration: 37%
RON’S COMMENT: This question breaks down the choices differently than most other polls have done. In it, 70% of Democrats, 8% of Republicans and 22% of independents say the House should vote to impeach Trump. 41% of women compared to 31% of men favor doing so.
If the House impeaches President Trump, do you think the Senate should convict him, removing him from office – yes or no?
Yes: 46%
No: 47%
RON’S COMMENT: In the event of impeachment, support for removal from office is higher than support for impeachment among Democrats (79% vs 70%) and independents (43% vs 22%). That’s a result worth discussing.
Do you think the White House has an obligation to comply with the subpoenas from the House committees who are demanding testimony and documents – yes or no?
Yes: 66%
No: 26%
RON’S COMMENT: 91% of Democrats, 35% of Republicans and 68% of independents say the White House has an obligation to comply with the subpoenas.
THE NEXT PRESIDENT
Among voters nationwide
Do you think America is ready for…
% = America is ready/Not ready
A female president: 70%/20%
An unmarried president: 63%/18%
A Hispanic president: 56%/29%
A president who is vegan: 54%/17%
A president who is gay or lesbian: 40%/45%
An agnostic or nonreligious president: 38%/44%
Do you think you are ready for…
% = They’re ready/Not ready
A female president: 73%/19%
An unmarried president: 71%/16%
A Hispanic president: 65%/22%
A president who is vegan: 61%/17%
A president who is gay or lesbian: 50%/37%
An agnostic or nonreligious president: 45%/41%
RON’S COMMENT: Americans see themselves as more ready for a woman, unmarried, Hispanic, vegan, or gay/lesbian president than they perceive the nation as a whole…. Age is a key differentiator on presidential religiosity: 57% of voters under 30 say they are ready for an agnostic or nonreligious president, compared to 40% of those over 65. When it comes to a woman president, men are more ready then women: 75% of male voters say they are ready for a woman president compared to 72% of female voters.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL: DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 27-29
NEW HAMPSHIRE: CNN/UNH, Oct. 21-27
IMPEACHMENT: Suffolk University/USA Today, Oct. 23-26
NEXT PRESIDENT: Politico/Morning Consult, Oct. 25-28
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